back of a spreadsheet; back of the net

I'm just getting up to date on Strictly 2021.

This is going to be a pretty bare bones review of the situation so far.

I'm not surprised that Adam Peaty & Katya Jones or Rhys Stephenson & Nancy Xu are doing well. Both the celebs seemed pretty good dancers from the pre-season pairing show. Katya is one of the strongest pro-dancers. Nice to see one of the newer pros doing well.

Little surprised to see AJ Odudu top of the leaderboard. Not surprised she's done well but I'd have picked one of Adam or Rhys ahead of her. Again, nice to see a new pro-dancer doing well early doors.

Not hugely surprised at the bottom place. I fear Sara Davies is probably my pick to go out first. Bit surprised at the second and third bottom. Robert Webb will need to up his game quite a lot. I thought he'd be a little better. Ugo Monye is paired with Oti. He's a rugby player and they tend not to do brilliantly - favouring power over agility professionally - but he's not a bad mover for a rugby player. And he's paired with Oti. Mitchel and Webb are one of my top ten comedy duos and I quite like Ugo and I think Oti is one of my top three all time pros. Hoping to see them do better.

Surprised and delighted by John Whaite and Johannes Rabede's dance. It worked really well and I thought leant in to the masculinity of two men dancing together rather wonderfully. I fear the public vote might be lumpy for them but fortunately they are a a good enough pair of dancers to weather any public discord.

I thought Tom Fletcher under performed my expectations and Dan Walker over performed.

Current predicted finalist comes from a pool of AJ, Adam, Rhys, Greg, Tom and I'm not sure - probably one of the other women will sort themselves out but none of them seemed to me to be under-marked. But one of them will get themselves in to the box seat.

Further to some conversation on my earlier post about racism on Strictly I've done a little data analysis.

(EDIT: Which has been edited slightly because I'd mis-categorised Ricky Whittle. He finished on the podium so moving him from category to another doesn't significantly alter my findings.)

These are some provisional observations. I'd like to get my daughter involved. She's doing joint honours Psychology and Biology and knows more about statistics than I do.

I've been keen for comments and questions.

I've created a data table of Strictly contestants.

Name

Week Out

Series

BAME Yes / No

How many weeks before the final they were eliminated.

I'm pulling some data from that table.

Up to series 15 there have been 207 contestants in Strictly Come Dancing. 37 of them have been BAME  or 17.87%. This  compares with 12.9% Non-White in the population of the UK overall. The total number of weeks danced is 1,620. 299 weeks danced by BAME contestants, 1,334 by non-BAME contestants, or 18.46% plays 81.54%

(I'm basing my BAME assessement on Wikipedia and my own memory. I haven't done a double check on every single contestent. Therefore I may have missed BAME people from communities like the Romany. I'm not too concerned about that as I think the question I'm trying to address is whether people who are visually obviously non-white are disadvantaged - in Strictly. EDIT: I did miss Ricky Whittle but by good fortune checking Ricky Whittle reminded me that American Gods existed on Amazon Prime - so I started watching that.)

Podium finishes. 11 out of 46 podium finishers have been BAME - 23.9%.

 

I've been trying to see if there is a trend for BAME contestants to go out earlier than average.

I have divided the competition in to First Half and Second Half based on the number of weeks before the final. 13 out of 72 First Half leavers are BAME 18.1% vs 23 out of 135 Second Half leavers, 17.0%. (NB not all Strictly series are the same length. Series 1 was 7 weeks, making everyone in it a Second Half Leaver. This is where my stats ability becomes stretched.)

Looking at the population of cummulative eliminations (e.g. there are 6 people who have been eliminated in Week 1, 0 BAME and 6 non-BAME, 100 % non-BAMe, by Week 2 4 BAME, 21 non-BAME, for 19% of total eliminations being BAME - compared to a to total population of 18.46% BAME contestants.

In Week 3 the figures are 8/36, or 22.22%, in Week 4, 9/51 or 17.65% - slightly less than the proportion of BAME contestants overall, which is 18.46%. This continues all the way through, with BAME contestants being slightly less likely to have gone out once we get past Week 3. This fits with the over representation of BAME contestants in the final (23.9% vs 18.46% of contestants.)

Excluding Week 1 Which has no BAME eliminations (NB many series had no eliminations in Week 1 so Goldie, first elimination but eliminated in Week 2) the average variance from of cummulative BAME eliminations from 17.65% is 1%. 10 weeks out 13 have  cummulatively fewer BAME contestants to have been eliminated.

There is a blip in Week 3 but it settles down pretty quickly. Where my stats fail me is working out if the blip in Week 3 is significant or just a blip. My gut feel says it's a blip. By Week 3 the cummulative % of BAME eliminations is 22.22% compared to an expectation of 18.46%

So, to conclude, BAME contestants are slightly over represented on Strictly. They are more likely to win, and more likely to finish on the podium than non-BAME contestants. Given that they are over-represented in the population as a whole they don't seem particularly likely to go out early. There seems to be a slight Week 3 effect but I think it's noise rather than signal.

Very, very happy to take suggestions on how this data analysis might be improved.

(I will also caveat this by saying that I've produced the data tables pretty quickly, there may be errors. EDIT - there were errrors - I  mis-categorised Ricky Whittle, who finished on the podium with Natalie Lowe a few years ago. I think I'd confused him with Ricky from Eastenders. As he made it all the way to the last week he doesn't impact the numbers or the conclusions for early entry much and he increases the representation of BAME contestants in the overall population and on the podium.)

EDIT Things that I found out following some questions

I think you can say that there is some evidence that BAME males do better than expected and BAME women slightly less well than expected but this looks like it might be to do with slightly fewer contestants being BAME women than we might expect given the overall BAME population in Strictly.

Thinking about a method to test is people are going out "early than the ought to" proved difficult.

The Week 3 blip might random or it might be because voters, unsure who to back early on, disproportionately back non-BAME contestants out of some racially biased default.

Week two of Strictly has passed.

As predicted by just about everyone Susanah Constantine (and Anton) are first out. Their Week Two score of 12 giving them an overall score of 24 and bottom place on the leaderboard. They were joined in the dance off by  Lee and Nadiya whose combined score of 48 put them in the dangerous middle ground of 7th place. I think I'd be a little bit worried if I were Lee and Nadiya but it's early days, the field is broad and there are worse dancers still in the competition.

Quite challenging dances for early on in the competition. On reflection I think this is unwise. It makes the early rounds a bit of a dice roll. Get a difficult dance and a bit of bad luck and you run the risk of being out much earler than you ought. I favour the more structured learning route but I guess Moffat needs a job now that he's no longer ruining Doctor Who or Sherlock.

I think I'm managing to get behind Katya and Seann and DJJ and Amy. I'm pretty much convinced that Katya is the cleverest choreographer in the competition.

Joe Suggs has moved in to favourite with the bookies at 4/1. He's moved a lot from the 10/1 you could get before the pairings were announced.

Kate Silverton has moved out quite a bit, which is sad but probably fair. Seann Walsh and Katie Piper are favourites for Next Elimination.

Worth noting that the following EU dancers would not be allowed in the UK after the 29th March without a visa.

Giovanni, Gorka, Alijaz and Graziano. Who knows how much a professional dancer is paid in Brexit Britain?

I think the Strictly partnerships are announced this weekend. I think there is little point speculating on the finalists until we see the pairings.

Current odds are

Ashley Roberts 11/4 from 5/1

Vick Hope 9/2 from 8/1

Danny John-Jules 8/1 from 10/1

Stacey Dooley 8/1 from 16/1

Faye Tozer 10/1 from 8/1

Joe Sugg 10/1 from 12/1

Katie Piper 14/1 from 16/1

Charles Venn 14/1 from 8/1

Lauren Steadman 18/1 from 14/1

Ranj Singh 20/1 from 18/1

Graeme Swann 22/1 from 25/1

Lee Ryan 20/1 from 8/1

Kate Silverton 25/1 from 20/1

Seann Walsh 40/1 from 20/1

Susannah Constantine 80/1 from 33/1

So big move in favour of Ashley Roberts, Stacey Dooley and Vick Hope. Big move out for Lee Ryan.

Let's see how the pairing shape up.

And now

And now

And now...

It is nearly time for Strictly Come Dancing 2018.

Four celebrity dancers have been announced as I type

Katie Piper, model and activist.

Danny John-Jules, cat and police officer.

Faye Tozer, singer, actress and, I suppose, at a stretch, dancer.

Joe Sugg, a person who videos himself falling over (why yes, I am going to be *that* guy who mocks YouTube "celebrities", all the way to Christmas, no I won't feel any shame, embarrassment, sympathy or humility about it whatsoever, thank you for asking).

I will be providing my usual ad hoc commentary on the competition, its role in popular British culture, the economic impact of Bruno Toniolli, and what it all means for Brexit and Claudia Winkleman's chances with John Snow.

So far I'm tempted by Danny John-Jules but I'll wait until the price drifts out a bit before I put any money on.

Edited for Vick Hope (and I suspect this post will become a running commentary on the new contestants as they are announced/0

The BBC have just announced Vick Hope as the fifth contender. I have not encountered Vick Hope before. She is a DJ on Capital Radio and I don't listen to commercial radio in London. For a fleeting minute I assumed she was Phil Vickery but any brownie points she gained by not being Phil Vickery she has lost by describing her cheese related code name, Wensleydale, as "creamy". She's lost the pedantic cheese lovers' vote (or perhaps cheese lover's vote) and on these small things do the fate of mighty empires hinge.

Here follows my preliminary analysis of the Strictly Come Dancing 2017 contestants. They are all winner just to have gotten this far. Well except for that lady from X-Factor. And the guy who knows Moffat. And probably Simon Rimmer who stands less chance of winning Strictly than Dave Arch.  And Ruth Langsford who wakes up every day next to Eammon Holmes. Anyway, most of them are already winners and I'm looking forward to some top quality bakes from them all before the show moves to Channel Four in 2018

Alexandra Burke

Alexandra Burke is the former X-Factor winner and pop singing sensation. Immersed in musicallity from a young age she is a record setting vocalist and successful muscial theatre actor. Her debut single, a cover of Mitch Benn's cover of Jeff Buckley's cover of Leonard Cohen's cover of Simon Cowell's Hallelujah was enormously successful - demonstrating that there is no accounting for taste, or decency. There is accountancy for money thought, which is just as well.

Stints in the musical Bodyguard and Sister Act only serve to confirm me in my prejudice.

I'm not sure how personally popular she actually is. I mean outside of my household.

Pros - has a successful career in music and musical theatre. That worked for Denise van Outen.

Cons - Hallelujah rightly offended all right thinking people, uniting the world in disdain in an unprecedented way. Perhaps the only person to have had a similar effect is Donal Trump.

She's well fancied at 5-1 (althought not by me.)

You know what, despite my instinctive dislike for the synthetic music business model of reality TV and her cover of Hallelujah I can see her winning the show.

Debbie McGee

With the death of Paul Daniels in 2016 we'll never know what first attracted him to the Lovely Debbie McGee.

Debbie is a former professional dancer turned magician and part of the world famous magical double act, Paul Daniels. She's also close to being declared a National Treasure.

Pros - former professional dancer

Cons - she'd be the oldest contestant to reach the semi-final.

In my view a value bet at 25-1.

Jonnie Peacock

Never under estimate an Olympian, unless that Olympian is Victoria Pendleton.

Pros - He's not Victoria Pendleton
Con's - sadly I fear that a man with only one leg is going to struggle towards the back end of the competition once all the no-hopers have been cleared out. I hope I'm wrong. I hope he's brilliant. He seems like a nice bloke.

I think over valued at 9-1.

Chizzy Akudolu

Holby City regular Chizzy Akudolu is surely the Lisa Riley of 2017. I'm expecting lots of cheery cheekiness, a surprisingly nimble turn about the floor and then fading, sooner or later, as the eventual finalists become apparant and it becomes apparant that Chizzy is not one of them. Riley was usually good, I don't think we'll see her like again.

50-1 seems a fair price.

Pros -  Never under estimate the power of the British public to like a woman who is turns out to be slightly better than their low expectations of her.

Cons -  will be partnered with Anton du Beck.

Charlotte Hawkins

Good Morning Britain presenter and journalist Hawkins is one of the dark horses the fate of which is difficult to predict. At 42 she's in the prime of her life perhaps a little too old to make it deep in the competition. Susanah Reid and Katie Derham are the counter examples. There's no indication that Hawkins will be an above average dancer but if she turns out to be she'll have a natural constituency from her role at ITV. Could go either way.

I wouldn't take her to win at 11-1 until after I'd seen her dance. At which point she'll either be 8-1 or 20-1.

Pros - ?????

Cons -  ????

Brian Conley

At one point Brian Conley was the UK's highest paid male TV personality. Which just goes to show. I'm not sure what it shows but it shows something. You don't get to be the highest paid TV personality in the UK by being unpopular or uncharismatic. The right partner could smuggle him through to the final. Unfortunately the right partner is probably Joanne Clifton.

I don't see him winning in what appears to me to be a crowded field but a twisted ankle here and a family emergency there could see Brian make the final on a Chris Hollins style ticket.

Pros - Once was famous

Cons - does not have access to a time machine so his fame remains in the past.

Susan Calman

I have been waiting, literally, for someone from I'm Sorry I Haven't a Clue to appear on Strictly Come Dancing. Admittedly the person I was waiting for was Samantha who I feel would have handled an Argentine tangled in her Cha-Cha-Cha.

Calman may be the first out lesbian on Strictly. She's certainly the first out lesbian from Glasgow who is the daughter of the Chief Medical Officer of Scotland and who has worked on Death Row in South Carolina to appear on Strictly, but not the last I warrant you.

Calman is one of my favourites of the panel show regular attendees. However, that doesn't make her a great dancer. She's taller than Claudia Frangapane but not as acrobatic. She's 7-2 to be first out and 50-1 to win. That's sadly probably fair.

Pros - sure to benefit from the Strictly / I'm Sorry I Haven't a Clue cross ove audience.

Cons - unlike Ruth Davidson, with whom she is often confused, she does not have access to her own infantry regiment or bison.

Aston Merrygold

Bringing a re-run of the 2008 X-Factor to Strictly is one quarter of boy band JLS. Being in a boy band your job is to move in time with some music whilst emoting at the camera on a zoom lens. This sometimes pays off on Strictly (see Anton du Beck) and sometimes it doesn't (see also Anton du Beck.)

The Hobbit-named Merrygold is currently the bookies favourite at 11-4. I'm not convinced. JLS were a while ago.

Pros - Boy Band

Cons - Even my daugher doesn't remember him.

Simon Rimmer

Celebrity chef Simon "Ace" Rimmer is the bookies 3-1 favourite to be first out and the 66-1 long shot to win. Not even Anton du Beck can save him. He'll be paired with one of the new dancers who have no personal following and undoubtedly turn out to be quite good and excellently paired and sweep to round 4 leaving Calman, Coles and Chizzy in his medium-rare wake. Nah, me neither, going out in round one.

Pros - I'm sure he'll be paired with one.

Cons - He's no Dave Myers

Joe McFadden

You Take the High Road and I'll take the Crow Road and I'll be in Strictly afore you, but me and Anton will never dance again, by the bonny bonny Banks of Loch Lomond, In a first for Strictly, (so many firsts this season, it's like a carnival of priority, more firsts than Casanova) the first contestant with an Iain Banks connection. Prentice McHoan will be dancing along the Crow Road. One can only hope that Peter Capaldi will be joining him from beyond the grave.

McFadden won't win but he is my favourite.

Pros - expect a fully functional Special Circumstances Drone to be loitering in the background giving dancing tips.

Cons - that drone is Skaffen-Amtiskaw

Reverend Richard Coles

Usually I think a career in music bodes well for a Strictly appearance but not if your career in music was as the synth player in an 80's electronica duo. When your job is to stand at the back, not moving, pressing buttons whilst someone else flails around in the spotlight, well unless you are Anton du  Beck, your strictly career is going nowhere. Another Strictly first, the first openly gay, celebate Church of England vicar who is related to a disgraced Conservative politician

40-1 is generous. If I hadn't already written about Simon Rimmer I'd have Coles as first casualty. (Holby City surely.)

Pros - can depend on the votes of every member of the Church of England who watches Strictly and who can work the internet

Cons - limited constituency

Gemma Atkinson

Atkinson is this year's ambassador to the BBC from Holyoaks. Holyoaks has a pretty good record on Strictly with finalists Ricky Whittle, Ashley Taylor Dawwon and Danny Mac and semi-finalist Ali Bastian. That predictive power alone is worth the 13-2 price. Add in a run on BBC's Casualty. In parallel to her acting career Atkinson is also a model. Which worked for Abby Clancy but didn't work so well for Jerry Hall.

I'm seeing semi-finalist here. perhaps even finalist.

Pros - Holyoaks have a point to prove

Cons - perhaps too beautiful for this world.

Ruth Langsford

Mostly and justly famous for not having strangled Eammon Holmes, yet, Ruth Langsford is amongst the older contestants in a format that does not favour age. Her presenting career is currently centred around Loose Women. I don't know how likely to vote her viewers are. I'm not picking up vibes of the sort of languid grace that took Katie Derham so far or the tightly controlled va-va-voom that took Reid to the final. I think Langsford is in the Kate Garroway box. She'll have a nice time, she'll do okay, she'll leave in the first half of the run, she'll be partnered with Anton du Beck.

Cons - Eammon Holmes will intervene on her behalf.
Cons - likely to be arrested at any moment once the police dig up her patio and find Eammon


Davood Ghadamis

Ghadamis is from Eastenders but by way of Taggart. Will it be Murder on the Dance Floor (ed: that's Ellis-Bextor), will we be able to Get Enough (ed: that's the Saturdays, fool,), will he Say He'll Be There in the final (ed: effing Emman Bunton, from off the Spice Girls,)  or can we expect the duff-duff-duffs of an early exist for this Eastender? In yet another first for Strictly, Ghadamis is the first fomer Doctor Who actor to appear on Strictly. That may or may not be true but we're dealing with a time traveller here so, depending on whether you take a linear or non-linear view of time, and indeed, which direction through time you are travelling, he may or may not be the first Doctor Who related Strictly contestant. In any event, he's associated with Moffat, so it will be a load of timey-wimey, bally-wally, plotty-whaty continuity banjaxing self-immolating wank. Knowing Moffat Ghadamis will contrive to be both the First and the Last Doctor Who related Strictly contestant through the magical power of an actual Big Red Reset Button. Wanker! The bookies say 9-1. I say hang the Moffat enabler from the nearest police box.

Pros - Big following from the Enders
Cons - Must have met Moffat


Mollie King

Will win.

She's a Saturday. It's almost in the BBC charter. I am confident that she will go one better than Frankie Bridges and declare her undying love for me, win Strictly.

Pros - will win.

Cons - I will look pretty stupid if she doesn't.

So, my predictions at this early stage.

Finalists

Mollie King, Gemma Atkinson, Burke and Merrygold the Hobbit.

Early Exits

Ace Rimmer, I'm Sorry I Haven't A Calman and the Rhumbaing Richard Coles.

Eventual Winner - still Mollie King. The fix is in.

I'm feeling a bit of disquiet with Strictly at the moment. I'm feeling a level of artificiality on two fronts.

( Read more... )

Am I watching a pantomime?

Not Jennifer Grey, Jennifer Gibney fails at the second time of asking and the Irish combo of Gibney and MacManus go out losing to an underwhelming Simon From Blue.

Mmmh, Frankie continues to dance well. As does Caroline “the Jacket” Flack and That’s Your Lott. That Kevin Clifton is a smart guy and I think his shot selection is excellent. When Frankie wins a lot of that will be down to Kevin’s ability as pro-dancer.

Jake seemed poorer this week than he has been. I think he’s still a finalist pick for me. Sunetra had a good week but I’m of the view that she’d caught a bit of a lucky break with a dance that suited both her and Brendan

At the other end of the leaderboard I wasn’t enjoying Not Jennifer Grey, Jennifer Gibney’s efforts. Not great dancing and not a huge amount of entertainment. On the other hand Unfortunately Named Tim did put on a very entertaining Charlston. Of the celebs who are struggling with the dancing I think he’s the only one with sufficient charisma and humour to be kept in for entertainment value. By the time the rest of the bottom tier of dancers have been cleared out by each other he’ll have had a good few weeks in the competition but eventually he’s going to come up against someone better than him in the dance off. Week Six or Seven I’d say.

Simon being in the bottom two was a surprise. He looked visibly upset by Craig’s harsh remarks. I’d expect a former boy band member to have more public support but looking at his twitter followers he doesn’t seem to be in the public affection like The Jacket or Mmmmh Frankie.

Last week I was worried that this year’s show was being too generous and too safe around the marking with too many Se-HE-Vens. Comparing the first three weeks of this season with last season it actually looks pretty comparable. 25% of marks this year are 7 compared to 30% last year. 5-6-7 gets 70% of the scores this year compared to 66% last year. There were a good deal more 8’s last year. Craig is only judge to use the full range of the paddles. He has 16 scores below a 5. Darcey is only other person to award marks below a five handing out two 4’s. Last year had a little more bottom weighting with all of the judges handing out at least one 4 and Bruno awarding one 3. I’ll go back and compare 2012 and 2011 over the next few days if I can find the data.

I’m enjoying the interplay between Tess and Claudia. The popcorn down the cleavage incident and Claudia’s reaction to it was the highlight of the show. I did think she was actually going to wet herself in an attempt to keep from bursting out laughing.

I’m still not convinced that Tess would be my first choice of MC but she’s doing a decent enough job. She seems to get on with Claudia which makes her more fun to watch and no one is groping either of them so they seem more relaxed. I expect as she gets a bit more settled she’ll find her own way of hosting the show with a bit of sparkle. At least we are spared the awful spectacle of a pre-senile old man forgetting the set ups to his own awful jokes.

So the first elimination has come and not even a fetish fueled Charlston could save Pudding Loving Geoff. He goes at the first time of asking. I had him going out in week 8. I think that fundamentally my bottom half is sound except for Can’t See The Wood.

Can’t See The Wood turns out not to be as wooden as I thought he would be. Following last weeks decent Tango he impressed with a Salsa garnering three nines in week two. Despite the cognitive disonance of having picked him for an early exit even I was impressed by his salsa. His combined score sees him top ranked over the two weeks.

Pixie and Frankie look pretty nailed on for a semi-final place with good dances in both weeks. On combined scores they are ranked second and third.

In terms of the public vote Not Jennifer Grey would have hoped to avoid the Dance Off. Her score of 37 had her ahead of four other contestents. Perhaps her legions of fans thought she was safe. Perhaps her legion of fans have read the same reviews of Mrs Brown’s Boys that I have.

I’m going to have a look at the average scores by week. I have a feeling they are higher than at this stage in previous years.

7 is the most popular score over the two weeks with 36 appearances or 30%. Last year over the first two weeks 28 7’s had been awarded, 23% of the total scores. 7 was still joint favourite mark. Last year the scores 5,6 and 7 accounted for 67% of scores awarded. This year 79% of scores are in the range 5-7. This is something I’m going to delve into more over the coming weeks. I’ll also be looking at any gender bias in the scoring.

Well now it’s time for the psephological highlight of the year my series of Strictly Come Dancing prediction and voting analysis blogs.

For my first post the ever popular (1) initial assessment of the celebrities and their professional dance partners. This year I’ll be basing my initial assessment on a reading of the celebrities Wikipedia entry, my assessment of their performance in the group dance in the preliminary show, my understanding of how SCD celebrity constituencies operate and how I view the strengths and weaknesses of the professional partner (2)

( Cut for lengthy discussion of Strictly, those watching Strictly and inappropriate use of the word Dripping )

(1) How do we know, there’s never been a vote.

(2) He’s making it up as he goes along.

(3) As there are no cricketers in this years’ show I’ll be (over) compensating by using large amounts of inappropriate cricketing terminology. As I regular readers are also often huge cricketing fans I know this won’t be a problem.