On Strictly Odds Movements in Early September

[danieldwilliam]

I think the Strictly partnerships are announced this weekend. I think there is little point speculating on the finalists until we see the pairings.

Current odds are

Ashley Roberts 11/4 from 5/1

Vick Hope 9/2 from 8/1

Danny John-Jules 8/1 from 10/1

Stacey Dooley 8/1 from 16/1

Faye Tozer 10/1 from 8/1

Joe Sugg 10/1 from 12/1

Katie Piper 14/1 from 16/1

Charles Venn 14/1 from 8/1

Lauren Steadman 18/1 from 14/1

Ranj Singh 20/1 from 18/1

Graeme Swann 22/1 from 25/1

Lee Ryan 20/1 from 8/1

Kate Silverton 25/1 from 20/1

Seann Walsh 40/1 from 20/1

Susannah Constantine 80/1 from 33/1

So big move in favour of Ashley Roberts, Stacey Dooley and Vick Hope. Big move out for Lee Ryan.

Let's see how the pairing shape up.

Comments

[mountainkiss]

What do you think this is based on?

[danieldwilliam]

I'm not sure.

It could be a thin market with not much money being placed so small shifts in support show up as big movements.

I think Lee Ryan (a former member of the boy band Blue) was interviewed saying that he was rubbish at dancing and that Blue had been a non-dancing boy band.

Similarly I think people will have looked at Ashley Roberts and reminded themselves of the dancing content of the Pussycat Dolls.

The one that puzzles me a bit is Stacey Dooley. Perhaps other people have had the same reaction to her as I did, finding her less earnest and more jolly than I expected.

[mountainkiss]

That makes sense. If I were a bookie, I'd also be looking at the relative column inches they're getting and possibly increments in Twitter following.

[danieldwilliam]

Yes, certainly the column inches. I think one could get caught out by the social media changes but if Lee Ryan's twitter followers quadruple and Danny John-Jules don't move then that definately indicates something.

[mountainkiss]

That's the sort of thing I was thinking. And that will change again after tomorrow as lots of people start following e.g., "Kevin's new partner" or "Anton's new partner".

[danieldwilliam]

Aye - there are several dancers with their own following and crucially from a polling point of view, if you follow eg Kevin or Anton then you interested in Strictly and therefore a likely voter.

I think the value bet is Danny John-Jules, he's the person I think will do better than the odds suggest but unlike last year I'm not seeing much value in the betting.

I am however, looking forward to seeing many of the celebs dance.