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[personal profile] danieldwilliam
Not Jennifer Grey, Jennifer Gibney fails at the second time of asking and the Irish combo of Gibney and MacManus go out losing to an underwhelming Simon From Blue.

Mmmh, Frankie continues to dance well. As does Caroline “the Jacket” Flack and That’s Your Lott. That Kevin Clifton is a smart guy and I think his shot selection is excellent. When Frankie wins a lot of that will be down to Kevin’s ability as pro-dancer.

Jake seemed poorer this week than he has been. I think he’s still a finalist pick for me. Sunetra had a good week but I’m of the view that she’d caught a bit of a lucky break with a dance that suited both her and Brendan

At the other end of the leaderboard I wasn’t enjoying Not Jennifer Grey, Jennifer Gibney’s efforts. Not great dancing and not a huge amount of entertainment. On the other hand Unfortunately Named Tim did put on a very entertaining Charlston. Of the celebs who are struggling with the dancing I think he’s the only one with sufficient charisma and humour to be kept in for entertainment value. By the time the rest of the bottom tier of dancers have been cleared out by each other he’ll have had a good few weeks in the competition but eventually he’s going to come up against someone better than him in the dance off. Week Six or Seven I’d say.

Simon being in the bottom two was a surprise. He looked visibly upset by Craig’s harsh remarks. I’d expect a former boy band member to have more public support but looking at his twitter followers he doesn’t seem to be in the public affection like The Jacket or Mmmmh Frankie.

Last week I was worried that this year’s show was being too generous and too safe around the marking with too many Se-HE-Vens. Comparing the first three weeks of this season with last season it actually looks pretty comparable. 25% of marks this year are 7 compared to 30% last year. 5-6-7 gets 70% of the scores this year compared to 66% last year. There were a good deal more 8’s last year. Craig is only judge to use the full range of the paddles. He has 16 scores below a 5. Darcey is only other person to award marks below a five handing out two 4’s. Last year had a little more bottom weighting with all of the judges handing out at least one 4 and Bruno awarding one 3. I’ll go back and compare 2012 and 2011 over the next few days if I can find the data.

I’m enjoying the interplay between Tess and Claudia. The popcorn down the cleavage incident and Claudia’s reaction to it was the highlight of the show. I did think she was actually going to wet herself in an attempt to keep from bursting out laughing.

I’m still not convinced that Tess would be my first choice of MC but she’s doing a decent enough job. She seems to get on with Claudia which makes her more fun to watch and no one is groping either of them so they seem more relaxed. I expect as she gets a bit more settled she’ll find her own way of hosting the show with a bit of sparkle. At least we are spared the awful spectacle of a pre-senile old man forgetting the set ups to his own awful jokes.

Date: 2014-10-14 04:01 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] widgetfox.livejournal.com
I agree with all of this. Sorry to be so dull.

Not really seeing it with Jake. I thought his first dance - tango? - was his best. I don't hate him, but I don't see him as being in the same league as P and F (or even C).

Totally agree re Kevin. If we did an age-weighted analysis, I'm pretty sure we'd discover that Susanna was one of the top performing contestants ever. Pamela obviously wins that, but I think Kevin got Susanna a long way. She'd always have done relatively well because she's unbelievably attractive, but not necessarily that well.

JW feels very strongly that Donny Osmond's marks should be discounted. Does that make any substantive difference to anything?

I wonder if we don't need a brilliant presenter, just a straight man for #musichallclaudia?

Date: 2014-10-14 04:07 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
I discounted Osmond's marks from the comparison of marks by year.

His markes averaged 7.29 including the 10 he gave to Frankie. Bruno was 7.14, Len 6.93, Darcey 6.71 and Craig 5.36. Donny was generous but not excessively so.

Date: 2014-10-14 04:16 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] widgetfox.livejournal.com
That's averaging an uplift of about 10%, I think. Not sure what I think excessive generosity would be - will reflect.

Date: 2014-10-14 04:20 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
Yeah - 11 and bit.

He seemed to like Scott and Mark significantly more than the other judges.

He wasn't always the highest scoring judge. He gave Steve and Ola a 6 compared to Darcey and Len's 7 and Bruno's 8.

Date: 2014-10-14 04:23 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] widgetfox.livejournal.com
He clearly identified with Simon a lot and was keen for him to win the dance-off, as well.

Date: 2014-10-14 04:24 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] widgetfox.livejournal.com
Do we have enough data to compare Donny's and Len's scores on the one hand with Darcey's, Bruno's and Craig's on the other hand?
Edited Date: 2014-10-14 04:24 pm (UTC)

Date: 2014-10-14 04:29 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
We do.

Do you know what you would like to know?

Date: 2014-10-14 04:45 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] widgetfox.livejournal.com
One team is "judges who like girls" and the other team is "judges who like boys". I want to know if it makes a difference to voting.

Date: 2014-10-15 09:02 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
Had a quick look at this for the 2014 season so far.

Female celebs have garnered 539 votes from the four usual judges. Male celebs, 560. For a 21 point male preference. 1.9% of the total votes cast.

Week one had a 10 point male preference on 350 votes. 2.9%.

Week two had a 27 point male preference on 383 votes. 7.0%

Week three had a 16 point female preference on 366. 4.4%.


Over the three weeks all of the judges show a male preference. Craig by 5 points, Darcey 10, Len and Bruno 3.

Donny awarded 102 marks, 49 for male celebs, 53 for female celebs. Although he displays a female preference he was only voting in week three and his preference in week three is pretty much bang in the middle of the usual four.

Does that answer your question?

Date: 2014-10-15 09:04 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] widgetfox.livejournal.com
What do you conclude from that?

Date: 2014-10-15 09:20 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
That Darcey likes men.

And that either the other judges have a small bias in favour of men or the current male celebs are on average slightly better than the current female ones (or the female pro-dancers are slightly better than the male pro-dancers.)

I think I'd need to do the same exercise over two or three complete seasons to see more.

Or, more simply that for the first two weeks there 8 men and 7 women in the competition.

Date: 2014-10-15 11:59 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] widgetfox.livejournal.com
I was assuming you'd need to adjust for relative numbers of men and women each week.

Date: 2014-10-15 12:59 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
Yes.

Also a factor is that the average quality goes up each week.

Date: 2014-10-15 01:47 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] widgetfox.livejournal.com
Agreed, although I also think (not necessarily correctly) that we are too early in the series to see a strong effect. I think more people are pretty much the same than are visibly better. (Sunetra is a notable exception.)

Date: 2014-10-15 03:32 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
I think the effect is not necessarily strong.

It's a two-fold effect. People practise and get better etc.

Also, one of the worst performers is culled each week.

Date: 2014-10-15 03:37 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] widgetfox.livejournal.com
Good point. I'm more going for qualitative data at this point. For the most part, the people who are great were great in week one. I'm not seeing big improvements yet elsewhere.

Date: 2014-10-15 03:55 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
This series I would tend to agree with you. Can't remember how things / contestants have progressed in the past.

Date: 2014-10-14 04:09 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
There is a lot to said for having a pole for Claudia to dance around.

I'm not sure a straight man is exactly what I had in mind.

Date: 2014-10-14 04:14 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] widgetfox.livejournal.com
Wonder what Jon Snow's doing on Saturday nights?

Date: 2014-10-14 04:21 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
You were texting Brooks Newmark?!?

What a confession.

Date: 2014-10-14 04:22 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] widgetfox.livejournal.com
I had the wrong number. I thought he was Jon Snow.

Date: 2014-10-14 04:23 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
Surely you could tell the difference from the photographs?

Date: 2014-10-14 04:26 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] widgetfox.livejournal.com
I was sending photos of Claudia.

Date: 2014-10-14 04:28 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
How would Brooks know they were pictures of Claudia?

Date: 2014-10-14 04:33 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] widgetfox.livejournal.com
He didn't. He thought they were pictures of Jon Snow.

Date: 2014-10-14 04:37 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
What on earth was Claudia doing that someone could mistake her for Jon Snow?

Date: 2014-10-14 04:45 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] widgetfox.livejournal.com
It was by the bins. There wasn't much light.

Date: 2014-10-14 04:17 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] alitheapipkin.livejournal.com
On my. I cheered that we have no old white men presenting it anymore but I might make an exception for Jon Snow!

Date: 2014-10-14 04:22 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
Claudia likes Jon Snow.

Having him on the show would be worth it just to see her reaction.

Date: 2014-10-14 04:30 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] alitheapipkin.livejournal.com
Kevin is great. It might be supposedly all about the celebrities but I think there have definitely been times when the pro-dancer has either saved or sunk people - the most infamous being Erin's awful puppet dance which got Colin Jackson kicked out. Kevin is up there with James Jordan (much missed!) and a few others as one of the best male pro dancers to get IMHO.

Date: 2014-10-14 04:32 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
Agreed. He has a good feel for what the audience will enjoy and seems to be able to build a good relationship with his partner.

Date: 2014-10-14 04:32 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] widgetfox.livejournal.com
As I was writing about Kevin and Susanna, I was thinking about James and Pamela. A 62-year-old in the final is hard to countenance now.

Date: 2014-10-14 04:01 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] widgetfox.livejournal.com
Specifically I agree re Sunetra. I think she's still a middle ranker, not a dark horse.

Date: 2014-10-14 04:02 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] widgetfox.livejournal.com
Strictly speaking (no pun intended) Nate Silver is himself still latter day.

Date: 2014-10-14 04:08 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
I can neither confirm nor deny that I am a time traveller from another planet.

Date: 2014-10-14 04:16 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] widgetfox.livejournal.com
#spaceacademy

Date: 2014-10-14 07:34 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] rhythmaning.livejournal.com
This is possibly the most surreal comment thread I have ever read. What drugs are you lot on?!

Date: 2014-10-15 08:36 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
Surely there are conversations like this on Spurs fansites?

Date: 2014-10-15 08:54 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] rhythmaning.livejournal.com
I'm sure there are! But I have never visited a Spurs fan site. Never ever. It's be worse than reading the comments on the Daily Mail. Or the Guardian.

Date: 2014-10-15 09:28 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
I'd stay here then and hope for some secondary smoke.

Date: 2014-10-15 01:47 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] widgetfox.livejournal.com
I'll have whatever she's having.

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