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[personal profile] danieldwilliam
Here follows some early thoughts, not very deep or well researched on Strictly 2022.



Judges, Craig Revel Horwood, Motsi Mabuse, Shirley Ballas and Anton Du Beke.

Three out of the four judges are adding some sort of value above replacement to my mind. I'm not sorry to see Bruno permanently replaced. I think he'd become a bit of a distraction from the judging.

I've not kept up to date on the current pool of pro-dancers. Other than Katya Jones I don't think any of the current team have shown the ability to transform someone's prospects. That's not to say that there are not good dancers, good trainers, good coaches but none but Katya with the Midas touch.


Run down of the contestants

Helen Skelton - Television Presenter, ex-Blue Peter

Ex Blue Peter sex symbol and sports journalist Helen Skelton joins Strictly straight from a separation from her husband. She's an ultra-marathon runner and the first person to reach the South Pole on a bike. Likely to start the programme in excellent physical condition she also scored very well in the 2012 Strictly Christmas special and has won other dance competitions. Likely finalist in my view.

Twitter 134k Instagram 322k

Current odds 3-1


James Bye - Actor from Eastenders. That appears to be mostly it. I'm no judge of the popularity of EastEnders actors.

Twitter 45k Instagram 143k

Current odds 12-1

Hamza Yassin - wildlife photographer with Sudanese Scottish heritage. Too obscure for me. With an outdoors background and only 35 he's probably just about fit enough to make a decent run at the early stages when being physically able to keep up is very helpful.


Twitter 6k Instagram 12k

Current odds 20-1 (out as far as 33-1)

Fleur East - radio presenter and performer

No stranger to reality TV Fleur East is a double veteran of the X-Factor, including a runner-up place in 2014 and a number one single and a 4th place finish on I'm a Celebrity Feed Me Some Kangaroo Penis. Currently hosting a Sunday morning radio show. Bookies favourite to win. I can see that. Along with the experience of reality TV comes a bit personal following and at least decent levels of natural and trained musicality and at 34 probably still young enough to have the physical stamina to survive the first few weeks.

Twitter 231k Instagram 790k

Current odds 5-2 (bookies favourite)

Tony Adams - former footballer with Arsenal, Wycombe Wanderers and England

The 55-year old former successful footballer and unsuccessful football manager is a footballing legend. Sportspeople tend to do okay in Strictly. The combination of physical fitness and knowing how to train for a physical task is a core competency of a the successful celebrity dancer. Not convinced that a middle-aged former defender is best placed for that particularly one with a history of heart surgery. Sadly a candidate for an early exit.

Twitter 81k Instagram 148k

Current odds 33-1 (out as far as 54-1)

Molly Rainford - singer

A multi-format performer and alumnus of the Sylvia Young Theatre School Molly stars in a popular CBBC programme and is a veteran of Britain's Got Talent

I like the fact that one of the characters in her scify television programme is a ship called Jefferson Ship.

She should be able to dance a little bit. That will help her get out the early weeks.

Twitter 18k Instagram -k

Current odds 7-1

Ellie Taylor - comedian

Hero of the Mash Report and best selling author and honorary Australian Ellie Taylor is pretty well known by people who watch BBC2 political satire. Are those the same the people who vote on Strictly Come Dancing. This correspondent says yes.

Twitter 108k Instagram -k

Current odds 10-1

Matt Goss - musician

53-year old Goss is a genuine bottle-top wearing heros of the late-80's music scene and successful Vegas singer in no way is his stint on Strictly a set up for a Bros re-union tour. I'm going with a bold prediction - a surprise early exit.

Twitter 123k Instagram -k

Current odds 7-1

Tyler West - DJ and television presenter

International handball player, DJ and utility BBC youth presenter - this guy could go anywhere or not.

Twitter 8k Instagram -k

Current odds 10-1

Ellie Simmonds - athlete and sports broadcaster

National hero Ellie Simmonds is a multi-gold medal winning Olympic swimmer who has transitioned in sports commentating. I don't think she's going to win. I think history shows that disabled contestants do pretty well until the later stages of the competition when their disability starts genuinely being the difference between them being the best or second mover on the dancer. Rose Ayling-Ellis is an exception but I think her disability was not a restriction on moving and she was very successful in the semi-final at creating a positive ideology and empathy with the viewers. So I think Ellie Simmonds is unlikely to reach the quarter finals.

Twitter 90k Instagram -k

Current odds 10-1

Jayde Adams - comedian

Jayde Adams might be the Debbie McGee of Strictly 2022 - a former competitive dancer with a family history of running a dance school. I don't think she'll win but she's where the value bet is.

Twitter 34k Instagram -k

Current odds 16-1 (out as far as 25-1)

Kaye Adams - broadcaster and Loose Woman presenter

The oldest contestant in the competition and exactly the kind of woman who would have been paired with Anton du Beke until his elevation to the judging panel. Possibly the only holder of an economics degree in Strictly history. Do Loose Women watchers vote on Strictly?

Twitter 86k Instagram -k

Current odds 25-1 (out as far as 100-1)

Richie Anderson - radio presenter

I am probably doing Richie a dis-service when I describe him as the person who tells you about travel delays on Radio 2 but that seems to be his current job. Being the travel reporter didn't harm Denise van Outen's career. Far from it, so perhaps Richie will be okay. He himself is delighted having been a fan for years but is also sceptical about his own abilities. He's an openly gay black man so it's all to play for. I'll see him dance before I write him off but based on his own scepticism I'm not hopeful for him.

Twitter 27k Instagram 33k

Current odds 14-1 (out as far as 35-1)

Kym Marsh - former Hear'Say singer and Coronation Street 's actor

I had hopes for this year when Kym Marsh was announced as a contestant as I'd then heard of several of the contestants without having to think too much about it. A former singer she should have the musical chops to do okay.

Twitter 761k Instagram -k

Current odds 9-1

Will Mellor - actor

Probably best known for his role in Two Pints of Lager and a Packet of Crisps and now acting in Coronation Street Mellor is married to a dancer. Does this help him. I don't know but it probably can't hurt his preparation.

Twitter 134k Instagram 322k

Current odds 8-1


I think we'll see Fleur East, Mollie Rainford, Helen Skelton, Will Mellor and Jayde Adams and whomever gets Katya in the semi-final.

Date: 2022-08-17 07:58 pm (UTC)
mountainkiss: (Default)
From: [personal profile] mountainkiss
In principle I think Giovanni adds value to his partners but he won in 2021 so I don't think it's a factor this year.

Date: 2022-08-18 01:03 pm (UTC)
mountainkiss: (Default)
From: [personal profile] mountainkiss

I think the only male pro who has ever met that standard is Kevin Clifton.

Date: 2022-08-17 08:01 pm (UTC)
mountainkiss: (Default)
From: [personal profile] mountainkiss
What the fuck are they doing having literally three unrelated contestants all called Adams? Is someone taking the piss?

Date: 2022-08-17 08:02 pm (UTC)
mountainkiss: (Default)
From: [personal profile] mountainkiss
I think you're only allowed five in the semis so that only works if Will Mellor gets Katya.

Date: 2022-08-18 01:29 pm (UTC)
mountainkiss: (Default)
From: [personal profile] mountainkiss

I don't know that I'd get that specific in my betting but I can see that it's far from out of the question.

Date: 2022-08-18 01:47 pm (UTC)
mountainkiss: (Default)
From: [personal profile] mountainkiss

Agree but I don't know that I'd pick out a particular subset.

Date: 2022-08-17 08:03 pm (UTC)
mountainkiss: (Default)
From: [personal profile] mountainkiss
Is Richie Anderson having a male dance partner?

Date: 2022-08-18 01:09 pm (UTC)
mountainkiss: (Default)
From: [personal profile] mountainkiss

I liked John and Johannes. I think I learned things about dancing from their partnership. And I was very sorry not to have more of Nicola and Katya.

Date: 2022-08-17 08:04 pm (UTC)
mountainkiss: (Default)
From: [personal profile] mountainkiss
I'm not sorry to see Bruno permanently replaced.

Concur.

In my view this is more or less the best thing that has happened anywhere in the last decade because not only is Bruno no longer driving me mad, Anton is also no longer driving me mad. I think he's quite endearing as a judge.

Date: 2022-08-18 01:20 pm (UTC)
mountainkiss: (Default)
From: [personal profile] mountainkiss

I sort of feel for him but it wouldn't have happened if he were actually able to do Latin dancing.

My bigger point on this is that I actually really like him as a judge. I like the balance of enthusiasm and geekiness and how seriously he takes it. So not only have I got rid of Bruno who I hated but I've got something in return that I'm really enjoying.

Date: 2022-08-18 02:07 pm (UTC)
mountainkiss: (Default)
From: [personal profile] mountainkiss

All these things. And he is actually gentle and optimistic when he's not constantly put into the position of losing every competition.

Date: 2022-08-18 02:13 pm (UTC)
mountainkiss: (Default)
From: [personal profile] mountainkiss

Yes and it didn't bring out the best in him at all, whereas this really does.

Date: 2022-08-18 02:19 pm (UTC)
mountainkiss: (Default)
From: [personal profile] mountainkiss

100% yes and then it takes up all the radar screen and the real complexity of character is lost.

Date: 2022-08-17 08:19 pm (UTC)
mountainkiss: (Default)
From: [personal profile] mountainkiss
How / why is a wildlife photographer famous enough to be on Strictly?

Date: 2022-08-18 01:21 pm (UTC)
mountainkiss: (Default)
From: [personal profile] mountainkiss

Yes, I do see that the latter is disproportionate, though not comparable to the representation from people called Adams.

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