On Prospects for the Next Five Years

[danieldwilliam]

Well, that was an unexpected election result. In lots of ways.

I had been hoping for a minority Labour government requiring support from Lib Dems and the SNP.

I'd been expecting a Conservative minority government.

I was, I suppose expecting the opinion polls to be predictive.

It's a disappointing result too. A Tory government is not something to wish on one's friends. I was also hoping that a government with legitimacy issues and dependent on others to support it would be open to some significant constitutional reforms. Those look unlikely from a majority Tory government.

So what comes next?

Well several more years of a reduction in public spending. If the public sector wants to protect the services it provides it will have to embrace technology and find ways to reduce the cost of provision and overhead significantly.

The economy will continue to grow quite sharply for another 18 months to two years. Then I think our structural problems of lack of productively growth, weak infrastructure and shortage of profitable investment opportunities kick in and growth is slower. Growth will be further depressed with the uncertainty brought about by an EU referendum. With a Tory government more of the proceeds of that growth go to Capital. So folk can expect to not feel much better off I expect.

Constitutionally, we might well see English Votes for English Laws. I don't have a problem with the principle but I think the practise will be fraught with unworkable problems. Otherwise, not a lot, not a lot. Oh, Boundary Reviews, reducing the number of seats to 600 and making the seats probably a little easier for the Tories to win.

The SNP will win handsomely in 2016.

I expect Europe will become the Big Issue and if the Tory party remains as split about Europe in 2015 as they were in 1992 that will be interesting.

A few Tories will die. The government will see its majority slowly decrease but not die - literally barring accidents of the multiple car pile up on the road to Conference variety. All the talk of Europe will keep UKIP in the public's eye - with their 3.9 million vote and 1 seat. (More than twice the votes of the SNP for 1/50th the seats). Things could get tasty if the Tory party really go mad over Europe. I don't know that they will. If the Tories have one quality it is successfully holding on to power. I would not be surprised by a Tory party split over Europe, before, during or after the EU referendum.

I've no idea about the EU referendum. I think Cameron wants to avoid it. I'm not sure how he can withuot splitting the Tory party from right under himself. I'd say that the massive funding and roll call of big and small business supporting a Yes to the EU vote would guaranttee a win for the EU but the British public seem in a perverse mood at the moment.

(If I were Cameron I'd do two things I'd offer the SNP Full Fiscal Autonomy and a binding 4 Nations Concurrence on EU withdrawal. This would keep the SNP quiet and ensure that Cameron could hold and win the EU referendum without it being his fault.)

If the UK leaves the EU Scotland will leave the UK.

I'm not sure where either the Labour or Liberal Democrat parties go from where they are. I expect the Labour Party will have cause to regret not ensuring electoral reform, House of Lords reform and regional devolution. I expect they won't realise they are the authors of their own downfall.

Other than that my taxes will go down a little, my children's schools get a little worse and I'll hope I don't get seriously ill for ten years.

Comments

[andrewducker]

Yeah, I don't expect that I, personally, will suffer greatly for this. But I worry about the people who will.

I think you're right on EVEL and the EU referendums. Not sure Cameron will offer anything to Scotland - getting that past the troops would be tricky.

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

Aye tricky - because (and I betray my anti-Toryness here) the Tory's natural instinct will be to bray "but we won, twice, fuck the Jocks).

[alitheapipkin.livejournal.com]

Yeah, I'm finding it impossible to glory in Scottish Labour's downfall even though it's their own damn fault because what the Labour party nationally has turned into is too damn depressing. And I feel very sad for all the left-leaning Lib Dems too.

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

Yeah - I'm not sure where Scottish Labour goes from here but it needs to go somewhere and it can't die, because until we've finally the settled the question of the Union we need two centre-left parties.

I have some sympathy for the left-leaning Lib Dems but, I think Tony Blair said - you can't fight two elections to the left of the Labour Party and then go in to coalition with the Tories and expect that to work out okay for you.

[andrewducker]

To be fair - I don't think they did expect it to work out ok.

And if it had come out the way the polls had said, I would have though that was (reasonably) fair. I don't think anyone expected it to be quite this bad.

I also expect people to spend the next five years thinking "Good Lord, this is what they protected us from?"

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

Amen to that Mr D - I can see the 2020 Lib Dem election campaign being basically "I told you I was right, but would you listen?"

I wonder if they will see signs of rehabilitation in Scotland in 2016.

[alitheapipkin.livejournal.com]

I think that will depend on where they go now. If last night was anything to go by, the local party here will be lucky not to lose their remaining lefty activists to us Scottish Greens - their candidate was all chummy chummy with the local Tories and a bunch of the activists were sitting out in the corridor looking very glum indeed.

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

There's a bit of a long term historical cycle with the Liberals of their left drifting off to other parties and the right folding itself in to the Tories.

Well, that's one reading of the National Liberals.

What do you think the Green Party (of which I am a fee paying but not very active member) will make of an influx of left-leaning Lib Dems and Labour supporters?

[alitheapipkin.livejournal.com]

My impression is that most of the new members post indy ref are left-leaning former LDs and Labour supporters. Certainly our local branch is full of such people. I think it is causing some amount of bitterness amongst the old school die-hard environmentalists but I think as long as us new members stay the course, we can out-vote them on policy issues and they'll either have to put up with it or leave. In general, I think the party is very much on board with the idea that environmental justice isn't going to happen without social justice.

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

I think that is one of the three key learning point for the Greens in the 2st century. You've put your finger right on it.

I'm very influenced by the late, great JK Galbraith and his key realisation was that the demand for economic growth is largely driven by the job destroying qualities of technology coupled with a lack of social justice (aka redistribution of weath or a more equal sharing of leisure time). So there is a constant political demand for economic growth so that people displaced out of one job have another job to go to so they are not dependent on awkward conversations about redistribution. Therefore, if you want to reduce the demand for economic growth for sustainability reasons you have to address social justice.

The second lessons being that economic growth does not necessarily imply environmental damage, increased energy usage or extra carbon and that environmental stewardship will be easier to sell if it comes with intelligently considered sustainable growth.

Third - science is our friend.

[alitheapipkin.livejournal.com]

Yes.

I would attempt to add something here but my brain is now reminding me that I had about 4 hours sleep last night ;)

[rhythmaning.livejournal.com]

Can I ask which constituency you're in?

I was very impressed by Sarah Beattie-Smith when I saw her at the hustings. Under STV, she'd have got my second vote.

(I'm a LibDem activist who voted Labour. Confused, moi?!)

[alitheapipkin.livejournal.com]

Dundee East. Although Dundee being Dundee (tiny on the scale of cities), we campaigned across both constituencies and the counts for both were in the same building.

[rhythmaning.livejournal.com]

Ah, thank you.


I'm still smarting at the results, I think.

[alitheapipkin.livejournal.com]

Thinking on this some more, I think the 'stay the course' bit is critical. The turnout for the Holyrood selection vote was awful locally and despite a big influx of new members, only maybe 20-30 of us have actually been active over this campaign. Hopefully Holyrood being a much easier sell will get people engaged but if not, we'll always be struggling against the die-hards being the ones with staying power who are actually prepared to do stuff.

So if you want a more liberal Green party, you should get more involved :)

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

Yes I ought to oughtent I.

Thanks for the nudge.

[alitheapipkin.livejournal.com]

No problem :) Positivity from the local campaign is (barring Nigel Farage not winning) the only thing that's stopping me curling up and crying today. I think we have a great chance to be strong opposition in Holyrood if we put the work in.

[rhythmaning.livejournal.com]

"I told you I was right, but would you listen?" has mostly been my response to people who have criticised the LibDems for going into coalition.

I'm an sincerely worried about the prospects for the HRA and snoopers' charter.

[alitheapipkin.livejournal.com]

Oh yeah, they *both* did it to themselves. But I still think the LDs at least were between a rock and a hard place on the coalition.

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

Yeah - it's easy to look back unsympathetically but back in 2010 there was a real sense of panic in the air.

I remember the queues outside Northern Rock during the run on the banks.

What he says

[f4f3.livejournal.com]

https://youtu.be/ELe4vC3oM5E

[steer.livejournal.com]

Wilson won with a majority of 3. That labour government didn't quite make full term.

The UK leaving the EU would be the most complete disaster for the UK. I don't know, I still hope it couldn't happen, surely the conservatives will not campaign for it... but never underestimate the rampant xenophobia of the UK.

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

i whole heartedly agree about the disaster of leaving the EU.

I can the Tories making it all the way to term.

i can see them splitting over Europe, defections, resignations and expulsions.

either or.

[steer.livejournal.com]

Labour thought they would make full term too though (and they very nearly did). The conservative position here I would say is relatively weaker as they have fewer potential allies. The labour government of the seventies could rely on various other parties for support when it began to lose MPs. For the conservatives it is hard to see who other than DUP and UKIP could provide that buffer.

[rhythmaning.livejournal.com]

In the event of an EU referendum, I'll be very active campaigning to stay in.

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

Me also.

If we are lucky the Tories will evicerate and immolat themselves over it and then lose, badly.

[rhythmaning.livejournal.com]

"I'll hope I don't get seriously ill for ten years"...

But the SNP have been in charge of the NHS in Scotland since 2007. Seeing Sturgeon campaigning in front of posters proclaiming " Save the NHS" really annoyed me!

[matgb]

I think the "save the NHS" rhetoric from certain elements has to die a fiery death. More money for hospitals/nurses might have legs in 2020, but the NHS will still be there and the hospitals will still be open. Who's providing the management services might've changed a bit, but most voters won't care about that and I'm certain Labour, in particular, shot themselves in the foot by making that the focus of their last big push (at least in England, the leaflet's still by the door).

[drplokta]

Yes, what's missing from the rhetoric is that the NHS has always been run for private profit, ever since it was founded, and always will be. Salaries are the private profits that employees make. If you want an NHS that's not run for private profit, then you need it (and its suppliers, such as pharmaceutical manufacturers) to be staffed entirely by unpaid volunteers. I really don't see the point of picking one specific kind of private-profit-maker (the individual PAYE employee) and saying that's the only acceptable way to make money from the NHS. NHS services should be delivered in whatever way provides the best service at the lowest cost.

[andrewducker]

My issue is that there are people who think that outsourcing management of service-provision so that there is always competition and profit-motive involved is always more efficient than a system where there is no profit motive in the decisions being made.

And I'm not at all convinced that that's correct.

[matgb]

It's not, but on the flip side there are many that are convinced it's never ever possible to be better, and I'm 100% certain that that's not correct.

My biggest pet hate is the anti-cherry-picking argument about objecting to, for example, dedicated hip replacement clinics which will only do that and do it faster/better. Some of the arguments ("what if there are complications") hold some water but that can be dealt with, others ("how can we train new doctors to do these if they're not done in NHS hospitals") are so easily solved (um, well, write into the contract that they have to have trainees attend X amount or whatever of surgeries?) that it's daft.

When Jennie needed an operation for her chronic pain, it was a simple job but had a 6 month waiting list, if she hadn't fallen down the stairs and been rushed in it would've been unbearable for her for ages. A system that encourages people to make themselves worse to get emergency treatment is bloody stupid, etc etc.

[matgb]

Exactly. GPs are, for the most part, private contractors providing a service the NHS pays for but they employ their own nurses, etc. There's a reason GPs surgeries tend to be a bit more welcoming than mainstream hospitals.

Unless the "no private profit" brigade are planning on setting up scalpel factories and similar (and I know some would like to, but, well, idiots), then it's a pointless argument.

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

The SNP are responsible for the administration of the NHS in Scotland and the the allocation of capped funds.

So, in a period of reducing public sector spending they have the choice of reducing NHS spending or spending on something else.

[drplokta]

EVEL is a bit of a red herring, because there are very few "English" laws that don't have a UK-wide effect. Scottish spending decisions don't affect the rest of the UK, because Scotland has a budget that it can spend however it wants, but it can't borrow money to support spending, and it can't claw back money from other parts of the UK. England has no such ring-fenced budget, so any law that requires spending money has a UK-wide effect on government finances, and wouldn't fall under EVEL. And most laws require spending money.

If Cameron can get away with holding separate referendums on EU membership for England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, with unanimity required for withdrawal, then the referendum result is so certain that there would be no point in holding it.

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

There are very few English only laws.

There are many that are perceived by English voters to be English only, or which it would be convenient for the Tories to label as English only.