On Prospects for the Next Five Years

[danieldwilliam]

Well, that was an unexpected election result. In lots of ways.

I had been hoping for a minority Labour government requiring support from Lib Dems and the SNP.

I'd been expecting a Conservative minority government.

I was, I suppose expecting the opinion polls to be predictive.

It's a disappointing result too. A Tory government is not something to wish on one's friends. I was also hoping that a government with legitimacy issues and dependent on others to support it would be open to some significant constitutional reforms. Those look unlikely from a majority Tory government.

So what comes next?

Well several more years of a reduction in public spending. If the public sector wants to protect the services it provides it will have to embrace technology and find ways to reduce the cost of provision and overhead significantly.

The economy will continue to grow quite sharply for another 18 months to two years. Then I think our structural problems of lack of productively growth, weak infrastructure and shortage of profitable investment opportunities kick in and growth is slower. Growth will be further depressed with the uncertainty brought about by an EU referendum. With a Tory government more of the proceeds of that growth go to Capital. So folk can expect to not feel much better off I expect.

Constitutionally, we might well see English Votes for English Laws. I don't have a problem with the principle but I think the practise will be fraught with unworkable problems. Otherwise, not a lot, not a lot. Oh, Boundary Reviews, reducing the number of seats to 600 and making the seats probably a little easier for the Tories to win.

The SNP will win handsomely in 2016.

I expect Europe will become the Big Issue and if the Tory party remains as split about Europe in 2015 as they were in 1992 that will be interesting.

A few Tories will die. The government will see its majority slowly decrease but not die - literally barring accidents of the multiple car pile up on the road to Conference variety. All the talk of Europe will keep UKIP in the public's eye - with their 3.9 million vote and 1 seat. (More than twice the votes of the SNP for 1/50th the seats). Things could get tasty if the Tory party really go mad over Europe. I don't know that they will. If the Tories have one quality it is successfully holding on to power. I would not be surprised by a Tory party split over Europe, before, during or after the EU referendum.

I've no idea about the EU referendum. I think Cameron wants to avoid it. I'm not sure how he can withuot splitting the Tory party from right under himself. I'd say that the massive funding and roll call of big and small business supporting a Yes to the EU vote would guaranttee a win for the EU but the British public seem in a perverse mood at the moment.

(If I were Cameron I'd do two things I'd offer the SNP Full Fiscal Autonomy and a binding 4 Nations Concurrence on EU withdrawal. This would keep the SNP quiet and ensure that Cameron could hold and win the EU referendum without it being his fault.)

If the UK leaves the EU Scotland will leave the UK.

I'm not sure where either the Labour or Liberal Democrat parties go from where they are. I expect the Labour Party will have cause to regret not ensuring electoral reform, House of Lords reform and regional devolution. I expect they won't realise they are the authors of their own downfall.

Other than that my taxes will go down a little, my children's schools get a little worse and I'll hope I don't get seriously ill for ten years.

Comments

[matgb]

I think the "save the NHS" rhetoric from certain elements has to die a fiery death. More money for hospitals/nurses might have legs in 2020, but the NHS will still be there and the hospitals will still be open. Who's providing the management services might've changed a bit, but most voters won't care about that and I'm certain Labour, in particular, shot themselves in the foot by making that the focus of their last big push (at least in England, the leaflet's still by the door).

[drplokta]

Yes, what's missing from the rhetoric is that the NHS has always been run for private profit, ever since it was founded, and always will be. Salaries are the private profits that employees make. If you want an NHS that's not run for private profit, then you need it (and its suppliers, such as pharmaceutical manufacturers) to be staffed entirely by unpaid volunteers. I really don't see the point of picking one specific kind of private-profit-maker (the individual PAYE employee) and saying that's the only acceptable way to make money from the NHS. NHS services should be delivered in whatever way provides the best service at the lowest cost.

[andrewducker]

My issue is that there are people who think that outsourcing management of service-provision so that there is always competition and profit-motive involved is always more efficient than a system where there is no profit motive in the decisions being made.

And I'm not at all convinced that that's correct.

[matgb]

It's not, but on the flip side there are many that are convinced it's never ever possible to be better, and I'm 100% certain that that's not correct.

My biggest pet hate is the anti-cherry-picking argument about objecting to, for example, dedicated hip replacement clinics which will only do that and do it faster/better. Some of the arguments ("what if there are complications") hold some water but that can be dealt with, others ("how can we train new doctors to do these if they're not done in NHS hospitals") are so easily solved (um, well, write into the contract that they have to have trainees attend X amount or whatever of surgeries?) that it's daft.

When Jennie needed an operation for her chronic pain, it was a simple job but had a 6 month waiting list, if she hadn't fallen down the stairs and been rushed in it would've been unbearable for her for ages. A system that encourages people to make themselves worse to get emergency treatment is bloody stupid, etc etc.

[matgb]

Exactly. GPs are, for the most part, private contractors providing a service the NHS pays for but they employ their own nurses, etc. There's a reason GPs surgeries tend to be a bit more welcoming than mainstream hospitals.

Unless the "no private profit" brigade are planning on setting up scalpel factories and similar (and I know some would like to, but, well, idiots), then it's a pointless argument.