On Prospects for the Next Five Years

[danieldwilliam]

Well, that was an unexpected election result. In lots of ways.

I had been hoping for a minority Labour government requiring support from Lib Dems and the SNP.

I'd been expecting a Conservative minority government.

I was, I suppose expecting the opinion polls to be predictive.

It's a disappointing result too. A Tory government is not something to wish on one's friends. I was also hoping that a government with legitimacy issues and dependent on others to support it would be open to some significant constitutional reforms. Those look unlikely from a majority Tory government.

So what comes next?

Well several more years of a reduction in public spending. If the public sector wants to protect the services it provides it will have to embrace technology and find ways to reduce the cost of provision and overhead significantly.

The economy will continue to grow quite sharply for another 18 months to two years. Then I think our structural problems of lack of productively growth, weak infrastructure and shortage of profitable investment opportunities kick in and growth is slower. Growth will be further depressed with the uncertainty brought about by an EU referendum. With a Tory government more of the proceeds of that growth go to Capital. So folk can expect to not feel much better off I expect.

Constitutionally, we might well see English Votes for English Laws. I don't have a problem with the principle but I think the practise will be fraught with unworkable problems. Otherwise, not a lot, not a lot. Oh, Boundary Reviews, reducing the number of seats to 600 and making the seats probably a little easier for the Tories to win.

The SNP will win handsomely in 2016.

I expect Europe will become the Big Issue and if the Tory party remains as split about Europe in 2015 as they were in 1992 that will be interesting.

A few Tories will die. The government will see its majority slowly decrease but not die - literally barring accidents of the multiple car pile up on the road to Conference variety. All the talk of Europe will keep UKIP in the public's eye - with their 3.9 million vote and 1 seat. (More than twice the votes of the SNP for 1/50th the seats). Things could get tasty if the Tory party really go mad over Europe. I don't know that they will. If the Tories have one quality it is successfully holding on to power. I would not be surprised by a Tory party split over Europe, before, during or after the EU referendum.

I've no idea about the EU referendum. I think Cameron wants to avoid it. I'm not sure how he can withuot splitting the Tory party from right under himself. I'd say that the massive funding and roll call of big and small business supporting a Yes to the EU vote would guaranttee a win for the EU but the British public seem in a perverse mood at the moment.

(If I were Cameron I'd do two things I'd offer the SNP Full Fiscal Autonomy and a binding 4 Nations Concurrence on EU withdrawal. This would keep the SNP quiet and ensure that Cameron could hold and win the EU referendum without it being his fault.)

If the UK leaves the EU Scotland will leave the UK.

I'm not sure where either the Labour or Liberal Democrat parties go from where they are. I expect the Labour Party will have cause to regret not ensuring electoral reform, House of Lords reform and regional devolution. I expect they won't realise they are the authors of their own downfall.

Other than that my taxes will go down a little, my children's schools get a little worse and I'll hope I don't get seriously ill for ten years.

Comments

[alitheapipkin.livejournal.com]

I think that will depend on where they go now. If last night was anything to go by, the local party here will be lucky not to lose their remaining lefty activists to us Scottish Greens - their candidate was all chummy chummy with the local Tories and a bunch of the activists were sitting out in the corridor looking very glum indeed.

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

There's a bit of a long term historical cycle with the Liberals of their left drifting off to other parties and the right folding itself in to the Tories.

Well, that's one reading of the National Liberals.

What do you think the Green Party (of which I am a fee paying but not very active member) will make of an influx of left-leaning Lib Dems and Labour supporters?

[alitheapipkin.livejournal.com]

My impression is that most of the new members post indy ref are left-leaning former LDs and Labour supporters. Certainly our local branch is full of such people. I think it is causing some amount of bitterness amongst the old school die-hard environmentalists but I think as long as us new members stay the course, we can out-vote them on policy issues and they'll either have to put up with it or leave. In general, I think the party is very much on board with the idea that environmental justice isn't going to happen without social justice.

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

I think that is one of the three key learning point for the Greens in the 2st century. You've put your finger right on it.

I'm very influenced by the late, great JK Galbraith and his key realisation was that the demand for economic growth is largely driven by the job destroying qualities of technology coupled with a lack of social justice (aka redistribution of weath or a more equal sharing of leisure time). So there is a constant political demand for economic growth so that people displaced out of one job have another job to go to so they are not dependent on awkward conversations about redistribution. Therefore, if you want to reduce the demand for economic growth for sustainability reasons you have to address social justice.

The second lessons being that economic growth does not necessarily imply environmental damage, increased energy usage or extra carbon and that environmental stewardship will be easier to sell if it comes with intelligently considered sustainable growth.

Third - science is our friend.

[alitheapipkin.livejournal.com]

Yes.

I would attempt to add something here but my brain is now reminding me that I had about 4 hours sleep last night ;)

[rhythmaning.livejournal.com]

Can I ask which constituency you're in?

I was very impressed by Sarah Beattie-Smith when I saw her at the hustings. Under STV, she'd have got my second vote.

(I'm a LibDem activist who voted Labour. Confused, moi?!)

[alitheapipkin.livejournal.com]

Dundee East. Although Dundee being Dundee (tiny on the scale of cities), we campaigned across both constituencies and the counts for both were in the same building.

[rhythmaning.livejournal.com]

Ah, thank you.


I'm still smarting at the results, I think.

[alitheapipkin.livejournal.com]

Thinking on this some more, I think the 'stay the course' bit is critical. The turnout for the Holyrood selection vote was awful locally and despite a big influx of new members, only maybe 20-30 of us have actually been active over this campaign. Hopefully Holyrood being a much easier sell will get people engaged but if not, we'll always be struggling against the die-hards being the ones with staying power who are actually prepared to do stuff.

So if you want a more liberal Green party, you should get more involved :)

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

Yes I ought to oughtent I.

Thanks for the nudge.

[alitheapipkin.livejournal.com]

No problem :) Positivity from the local campaign is (barring Nigel Farage not winning) the only thing that's stopping me curling up and crying today. I think we have a great chance to be strong opposition in Holyrood if we put the work in.