On Prospects for the Next Five Years
May. 8th, 2015 02:28 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
danieldwilliamWell, that was an unexpected election result. In lots of ways.
I had been hoping for a minority Labour government requiring support from Lib Dems and the SNP.
I'd been expecting a Conservative minority government.
I was, I suppose expecting the opinion polls to be predictive.
It's a disappointing result too. A Tory government is not something to wish on one's friends. I was also hoping that a government with legitimacy issues and dependent on others to support it would be open to some significant constitutional reforms. Those look unlikely from a majority Tory government.
So what comes next?
Well several more years of a reduction in public spending. If the public sector wants to protect the services it provides it will have to embrace technology and find ways to reduce the cost of provision and overhead significantly.
The economy will continue to grow quite sharply for another 18 months to two years. Then I think our structural problems of lack of productively growth, weak infrastructure and shortage of profitable investment opportunities kick in and growth is slower. Growth will be further depressed with the uncertainty brought about by an EU referendum. With a Tory government more of the proceeds of that growth go to Capital. So folk can expect to not feel much better off I expect.
Constitutionally, we might well see English Votes for English Laws. I don't have a problem with the principle but I think the practise will be fraught with unworkable problems. Otherwise, not a lot, not a lot. Oh, Boundary Reviews, reducing the number of seats to 600 and making the seats probably a little easier for the Tories to win.
The SNP will win handsomely in 2016.
I expect Europe will become the Big Issue and if the Tory party remains as split about Europe in 2015 as they were in 1992 that will be interesting.
A few Tories will die. The government will see its majority slowly decrease but not die - literally barring accidents of the multiple car pile up on the road to Conference variety. All the talk of Europe will keep UKIP in the public's eye - with their 3.9 million vote and 1 seat. (More than twice the votes of the SNP for 1/50th the seats). Things could get tasty if the Tory party really go mad over Europe. I don't know that they will. If the Tories have one quality it is successfully holding on to power. I would not be surprised by a Tory party split over Europe, before, during or after the EU referendum.
I've no idea about the EU referendum. I think Cameron wants to avoid it. I'm not sure how he can withuot splitting the Tory party from right under himself. I'd say that the massive funding and roll call of big and small business supporting a Yes to the EU vote would guaranttee a win for the EU but the British public seem in a perverse mood at the moment.
(If I were Cameron I'd do two things I'd offer the SNP Full Fiscal Autonomy and a binding 4 Nations Concurrence on EU withdrawal. This would keep the SNP quiet and ensure that Cameron could hold and win the EU referendum without it being his fault.)
If the UK leaves the EU Scotland will leave the UK.
I'm not sure where either the Labour or Liberal Democrat parties go from where they are. I expect the Labour Party will have cause to regret not ensuring electoral reform, House of Lords reform and regional devolution. I expect they won't realise they are the authors of their own downfall.
Other than that my taxes will go down a little, my children's schools get a little worse and I'll hope I don't get seriously ill for ten years.
I had been hoping for a minority Labour government requiring support from Lib Dems and the SNP.
I'd been expecting a Conservative minority government.
I was, I suppose expecting the opinion polls to be predictive.
It's a disappointing result too. A Tory government is not something to wish on one's friends. I was also hoping that a government with legitimacy issues and dependent on others to support it would be open to some significant constitutional reforms. Those look unlikely from a majority Tory government.
So what comes next?
Well several more years of a reduction in public spending. If the public sector wants to protect the services it provides it will have to embrace technology and find ways to reduce the cost of provision and overhead significantly.
The economy will continue to grow quite sharply for another 18 months to two years. Then I think our structural problems of lack of productively growth, weak infrastructure and shortage of profitable investment opportunities kick in and growth is slower. Growth will be further depressed with the uncertainty brought about by an EU referendum. With a Tory government more of the proceeds of that growth go to Capital. So folk can expect to not feel much better off I expect.
Constitutionally, we might well see English Votes for English Laws. I don't have a problem with the principle but I think the practise will be fraught with unworkable problems. Otherwise, not a lot, not a lot. Oh, Boundary Reviews, reducing the number of seats to 600 and making the seats probably a little easier for the Tories to win.
The SNP will win handsomely in 2016.
I expect Europe will become the Big Issue and if the Tory party remains as split about Europe in 2015 as they were in 1992 that will be interesting.
A few Tories will die. The government will see its majority slowly decrease but not die - literally barring accidents of the multiple car pile up on the road to Conference variety. All the talk of Europe will keep UKIP in the public's eye - with their 3.9 million vote and 1 seat. (More than twice the votes of the SNP for 1/50th the seats). Things could get tasty if the Tory party really go mad over Europe. I don't know that they will. If the Tories have one quality it is successfully holding on to power. I would not be surprised by a Tory party split over Europe, before, during or after the EU referendum.
I've no idea about the EU referendum. I think Cameron wants to avoid it. I'm not sure how he can withuot splitting the Tory party from right under himself. I'd say that the massive funding and roll call of big and small business supporting a Yes to the EU vote would guaranttee a win for the EU but the British public seem in a perverse mood at the moment.
(If I were Cameron I'd do two things I'd offer the SNP Full Fiscal Autonomy and a binding 4 Nations Concurrence on EU withdrawal. This would keep the SNP quiet and ensure that Cameron could hold and win the EU referendum without it being his fault.)
If the UK leaves the EU Scotland will leave the UK.
I'm not sure where either the Labour or Liberal Democrat parties go from where they are. I expect the Labour Party will have cause to regret not ensuring electoral reform, House of Lords reform and regional devolution. I expect they won't realise they are the authors of their own downfall.
Other than that my taxes will go down a little, my children's schools get a little worse and I'll hope I don't get seriously ill for ten years.
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no subject
Date: 2015-05-08 04:14 pm (UTC)The UK leaving the EU would be the most complete disaster for the UK. I don't know, I still hope it couldn't happen, surely the conservatives will not campaign for it... but never underestimate the rampant xenophobia of the UK.
no subject
Date: 2015-05-08 04:30 pm (UTC)i whole heartedly agree about the disaster of leaving the EU.
I can the Tories making it all the way to term.
i can see them splitting over Europe, defections, resignations and expulsions.
either or.
no subject
Date: 2015-05-08 04:32 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2015-05-09 12:10 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2015-05-10 07:30 pm (UTC)Me also.
If we are lucky the Tories will evicerate and immolat themselves over it and then lose, badly.