danieldwilliam | On Predicting a Rhumba

So, so, so – Strictly Predictions after one weekend and one dance for each pair.

First some commentary.

I think in the main my initial predictions are looking okay.

(Original Predictions as amended after the pairings show.)

1	Ben & Kristina
2	Rachel & Pasha
3	Natalie & Artem
4	Susanna & Kevin
5	Ashley & Ola
6	Dave & Karen
7	Deborah & Robin
8	Fiona & Anton
9	Patrick & Anya
10	Sophie & Brendan
11	Vanessa & James
12	Tony & Aliona
13	Julien & Janette
14	Abbey & Aljaž
15	Mark & Iveta

(Rankings after 1 week and 1 dance.)

1	Abbey & Aljaž
2	Natalie & Artem
3	Patrick & Anya
3	Sophie & Brendan
3	Susanna & Kevin
6	Rachel & Pasha
7	Ashley & Ola
8	Deborah & Robin
8	Fiona & Anton
8	Mark & Iveta
11	Julien & Janette
12	Ben & Kristina
12	Vanessa & James
14	Dave & Karen
14	Tony & Aliona

There’s a bit of discrepancy between my prediction and the scores on the doors. However, a lot of Strictly is a popularity contest. In order to stay in, you only need to be better than the least popular person, or more popular than the second and third worst dancers. The propensity to improve is also a factor. I think this helps Ben.

Where I got it wrong is my prediction for Abbey. She turns out to be a much better waltzer than I thought she would be. I confess to seeing her more as Jerry Hall type but she seems to have much greater fluidity than the Tall Texan. Unless she is massively unpopular than, based on the weekend’s performances, I think she’ll survive for a good few weeks.

Also questionable is my prediction for Ben. He looked a bit stiff. I think he’ll do better at ballroom where stiffness is less of an issue and, as a sportman, I would expect him to put the effort in to improving.

Mark surprised me. I had him going out in the first week. He attacked his dance with great energy and enthusiasm. I think the dance he had helped him. It was a good opportunity to put story telling and chutzpah ahead of close technical dancing ability. He was helped also by the choreography. I still don’t seem him doing better than lower mid table.

Based on last weekend’s dancing I think Tony and Aliona to go out first. Followed by Julien and Janette, then Vanessa and James or Fiona and Anton.

Dave Myers remains my long shot, deep threat.

I’m pretty happy with my top five. Ben is obviously questionable but the foursome of Ashley, Rachel, Susanna and Natalie look solid.

I can’t seem to get happy with seeing Abbey doing well. Ho hum.

I’d like Susanna to win but I think the bookies might have it right with Natalie Gumade.