On Strictly Come Dancing 2013 - Early Predictions

[danieldwilliam]

Here are my predictions for the Strictly Come Dancing Knock out stages.

I’m not certain of the format so I’ve ranked the contestants in order of leaving, rather week of exit, then picked a top five to appear in the semi-final and final with my prediction of an eventual winner. I did pretty well with my predictions last year. I was unfortunately blinded by Denise van Outen’s boobs undeniable talent as a dancer and after her unfortunate stage school related PR disaster I persisted in predicting her to win long after it was apparent she’d lost out.

First, some commentary on each contestant





Abbey Clancey

A moderately well known model I don’t see her being popular with much of the SCD constituency. Splitting the Fit As… vote with Rachel Rilley I think Rilley has a broader and deeper constituency to fall back on. Clancy to be an early leaver.

Ashley Taylor Dawson

A soap actor, former youth band member and one for the ladies Dawson is a strong contender.  Periods at stage school should help his dancing. I think he’ll be immune to the DVO Death Dance School slur because he’s a guy. 

Ben Cohen.

Sportspersons usually do well in SCD with a good track record of finals and wins. The combination of competitiveness and general physical fitness and competence combined with a decent public following usually mean sports player do well in the early stages of the competition and can capitalise on this to stretch for the final.  Cohen’s work with the Ben Cohen Stand Up foundation adds a bit of wild card. Will a big gay following translate into a strong voting performance? I’d like to think so.  Can he dance? He’s a back – he should be able to move his feet. A strong contender.

Dave Myres

The comedy one from the Hairy Bikers. What’s not to love about an overweight funny Northerner being lead about the dance floor by a lithe beautiful dancer?  It’s Jon Sargent with a  beard and recipe book.  However, underneath that jolly rotund exterior is the heart of a man who takes great joy in life and who might well relish the chance to dance a few stone off and therefore put the effort in.  Decent public following.  He’s my outsider.

Deborah Meaden
Meadon is a bit of a wild card. She has a strong personality. I think she’s quite likable and once she is free of the Dragon’s Den caricature  and has a chance to show some more humane elements she should prove sympathetic.  If she is able to combine this with visibly enjoying the dancing and steadily improving she should last well in the latter stages of the knock out stage.  If she can’t dance – she’s toast early on.

Fiona Fullerton
Whe’ll poll well and makes a solid bet for a mid-table finish.

Mark Benton
An actor, with one of those “I know who that is! Thingamy. He was in, you know, that thing, with the Whatshername – the blonde one.” faces. I don’t think he’ll score well enough on dancing, natural constituency, charisma or improvement to last long.

Natalie Gumede
Coronation Street regular Gumede apparently has bags of dance training. I also note without comment that Googling her name brings up the suggested search result Natalie Gumede Feet – a sure sign that she’s considered sexy. If she’s not a finalist I’ll eat her dance shoes.

Patrick Robinson
I have a bit of a blind spot for Casualty. I don’t know how much weight Casualty actors carry with the public.  So, I’m predicting mid-table mediocrity for Robinson. A dignified struggled followed by an – it’s time to go ending.

Rachel Riley
Rachel Riley is a stunningly attractive woman with a much admired figure. Her professional demeanour on Countdown cracks a little on saltier more adult shows to reveal a wicked, nay impish, sense of humour.  Perhaps the superlative teatime sex symbol. Ten percent of votes cast in SCD this year will be to keep Riley in for one more week just in case her tits falls out of her top. I was just about to type that unless she chins Tess Daly she can’t fail to place well but there are people who like that sort of thing and chinning Daly would, in fact, only enhance her voter appeal.  Personally, I think she is too self-conscious and physically awkward to dance well enough to get to the final but I could well be wrong about her prospects. On balance, I’m backing sex appeal over dancing skill.

Sophie Ellis-Bextor
If this ain’t Sophie Ellis-Bextor why do I feel so good? My head says she ought to a technically strong contender, my heart says, she’s been out of the public attention for too long. Early exit.

as once a Bond Girl, but is now someone who was once a Bond Girl.  No natural constituency.  Unless she can dance like Madame Pavlova an early exit.

Julien Macdonald
Fashion guru on Strictly: It Takes Two Macdonald is a SCD insider.  With his love of the costume and his flamboyant personality I think Susanna Reid
Intelligent, charming, beautiful, highly fancied on the internet. Highly fancied on my sofa. Frequently seen dressed like an ABBA tribute band member on Children in Need.  BBC Breakfast viewers to appeal to. BBC news have two former winners of the competition, Kaplinsky in Series One and Chris “Charleston” Hollins a few years back. Viewers votes will carry her into the middle section easily. If she can dance a potential finalist.

Tony Jacklin
A famous golfer but a long time out of the limelight. The oldest contestant. I don’t see him having the combination of dancing skill and public recognition to go very far.

Vanessa Feltz
Widely seen as a loud mouthed nutjob Feltz struggles on several fronts. However, she works hard and when enthusiastic about something her enthusiasm definitely shows through.  Another contestant who is carrying a bit of weight and might see SCD as a good chance to publically get fit. This often goes down well with the voters.  A dark horse, perhaps? But I think my gut says early exit.

So my predictions for order of exit

1)Mark Benton
2)Ashley Clancy
3) Fiona Fullerton
4) Tony Jackin
5) Vanessa Feltz
6) Sophie Ellis-Bextor
7) Patrick Robinson
8) Julien Macdonald
9) Deborah Meadon
10) Dave Myers

Which gives a final five of

Ashely Taylor Dawson
Ben Cohen
Natalie Gumede
Rachel Riley
Susanna Reid.

The winner – Ben Cohen.

Comments

[f4f3.livejournal.com]

You're on yer own, this year :)

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

One is never alone with a sequined trophy.

[widgetfox.livejournal.com]

I'd love to see Rachel do well. Mathmos unite.

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

She is certainly my second top math person.

I expect her to do well. I hope I’m wrong about the gawkiness and that she dances well. If so she’s a banker for the final.

[widgetfox.livejournal.com]

As I understand it, quite often punters look for improvement rather than brilliance at the beginning - Chris Hollins is the archetype, I think, although he was before my time.

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

Yeah – generally I agree with you. Improvement is a big part of the voter appeal, certainly at the beginning. As is looking like you are enjoying the improving process. (Cf La Pendleton.)

But as you move through the competition I think you are expected to be good, rather than just getting better.

Another factor is the structure of the show. If they have a dance off that gives the judges the chance to remove the charismatic popular hoofer in favour of the less popular technically better dancer.

So, for Rachel, if she dances okay at the beginning and looks like she’s enjoying it and seems to be getting better I think she’ll go a long way. If she has any dancing ability, enough to save her in a dance off and to pull off a stunning routine then she’s in the final for sure.

Hollins was rewarded for putting in the hard work and getting better. That I think kept him in for a few weeks. What made him the winner, I think, was his Charlston routine. In years since we’ve seen several really good routines so it’s hard to explain the impact that routine had. At the time the audience hadn’t seen anything like it, let alone from the couple who were probably on their last week in the competition. It was absolutely jaw dropping. Until the final I think he got a good few votes just so people could see the routine again.

[widgetfox.livejournal.com]

Agree. Lisa got exactly as far as anyone could go on charm, charisma, enthusiasm and surprise factor - which is to say, further than anyone who couldn't dance like a pro and quite a bit further than a lot of people who could. But in the end, it was down to her and four people who could dance like a pro (Denise, Louis, Dani and Kimberley) and it was right that she went when she did, although I was sad.

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

Dave Myers is this year’s Lisa in my view.

[widgetfox.livejournal.com]

Possibly. She is a really good dancer - she just doesn't dance like a pro. But better than almost anyone who isn't a pro.

There is a huge unknown here - the pairings. That will make a great deal of difference.

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

Aye – the pairings will make a difference – although I am uncertain how much each professional has a personal following. Some, but I don’t think I have a model for it.

Can I tempt you to a prediction yourself?

[widgetfox.livejournal.com]

No, because I have almost no idea who any of these people are.

I think the pairings make a huge difference, not so much because of the pro dancers per se but because the chemistry between the pro and the celeb is absolutely critical to both the dancing and the audience engagement. (Having said that, Louis and Flavia were a notable exception - their chemistry was no better than average, and other pairs had far more.) Think Denise and James vs. Brendan and Victoria.

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

Fair enough. (I have based some of my assessement on an asset class basis. I'd never heard of Natalie Gumede but she's a good looking actress in Corrie. Gotta back the fundamentals.

I concur re partners.

[alitheapipkin.livejournal.com]

I hope you are wrong about Julien MacDonald lasting so long, I can't abide the man, although the mean part of me would quite like to see him getting ripped apart first given the hideously bitchy comments he's made about some people on the various shows he's judged over the years.

As for the rest, I know who precisely 5 of them are from their names so I'm hoping to be pleasantly surprised...

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

I have no particularly strong feelings about the guy either way but I like you so I’m now rooting for him to just avoid the bottom two each week and for Revel-Horward to become increasingly hostile towards him.

[alitheapipkin.livejournal.com]

Why thank you :)
I'm trying to remember if they have appeared on Take 2 together - I have a horrible feeling they may be bosom buddies and instead it'll be a horrid love-in. But the thought is appreciated anyway!

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

I think you are right about them being mates and I don’t see JMcD being that bad a dancer that he would provoke snide comments from CRH.

We’ll just have to hope he twists an ankle.

[rhythmaning.livejournal.com]

You actually know who ALL these people are?!

I know about half of them.

I think Deborah Meadon will be out early because people will think of her as being a nasty dragon.

Vanessa Feltz (who I thought had done it before...) might have quite a big constituency.

I like Sophie Ellis Bextor. So she'll probably be out quite early.

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

I don’t know who all of these people are.

I looked them up on the internet and in some cases I’m basing my assessment on their asset class.

People I’d heard of before i.e. I could have told you what they did rather than just having a vague feeling that I knew the name.

Susanna Reid
Sophie Ellis Bextor
Ben Cohen
Rachel Riley
Vanessa Feltz
Deborah Meadon

In addition, when I found out Dave Myers was one of the Hairy Bikers I was able to place him.

So, I know less than half.

But it’s not a huge leap to see that Natalie Gumade is a) a Corination Street actress so has good face recognition with many people and b) is quite bonny but not in an intimidating way so likely to poll pretty well for the first few weeks. Likewise Ashley.

Feltz is a strange case. She provokes strong public opinion. Many people strongly dislike her but many people have some respect for her. A lot depends on how she gets on and how she approaches the competition. If she’s good at dancing and seems to be in a jolly mood I think she’ll poll okay. If she is poor at dancing and grouchy then I think she’ll provoke a bit of a backlash.

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

I like Sophie Ellis Bextor too.

[widgetfox.livejournal.com]

Where are you at with this?

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

In terms of my original predictions it looks like a pretty mixed result. Probably more wrong than right.

I completely missed Mark but was more or less right about Dave.

Completely missed Abbey (to the point of giving her the wrong first name) but was right about Susanna.

The two people I thought might win, Rachel and Ben both hit a mid-series bump and there are only 2 left of my top five.

However, on a portfolio basis it’s not a disaster. (1) Not sure how I’d assess it, probably some sort of square of the differences type calc.

In terms of the show overall. Currently enjoying it very much. We’ve taken to letting the Captain stay up late on Saturday night and watch the dancing with us. He likes the numbers.

There are a couple of really good dancers there. It’s difficult to pick a winner. The better dancers seem to be struggling for popularity a little. A couple of times we’ve seen someone very low down the leaderboard saved by a GOTV reflex. To paraphrase Tony Bennaud, good ballroom, good latin, good dancing all round. Dancing is the winner. Abbey or Patrick should probably win for overall dancing but I think anyone who makes it to the final could win. The big question, then, is can Susanna slip through the semi?


(1) NB I am *not* doing that in a Craig Revel Horwood aka The Grumpy Man On The End voice because once you get a catch phrase the temptation to build your part around it is irresistible.

Scores on the Doors of the Scores on the Doors

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

My current error is 332. I’ve based this on taking the difference between my week of exit and the actual week of exit. Those predicted to still be in who are still score zero.

19% of that 332 is coming from Mark Benson and 24% from Abbey Clancy.

It can’t get much worse than that. If Patrick and Sophie make the final that increases the difference a little but not much.

Let’s see how I do next year.