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danieldwilliamHere are my predictions for the Strictly Come Dancing Knock out stages.
I’m not certain of the format so I’ve ranked the contestants in order of leaving, rather week of exit, then picked a top five to appear in the semi-final and final with my prediction of an eventual winner. I did pretty well with my predictions last year. I was unfortunately blinded by Denise van Outen’sboobs undeniable talent as a dancer and after her unfortunate stage school related PR disaster I persisted in predicting her to win long after it was apparent she’d lost out.
First, some commentary on each contestant
Abbey Clancey
A moderately well known model I don’t see her being popular with much of the SCD constituency. Splitting the Fit As… vote with Rachel Rilley I think Rilley has a broader and deeper constituency to fall back on. Clancy to be an early leaver.
Ashley Taylor Dawson
A soap actor, former youth band member and one for the ladies Dawson is a strong contender. Periods at stage school should help his dancing. I think he’ll be immune to the DVO Death Dance School slur because he’s a guy.
Ben Cohen.
Sportspersons usually do well in SCD with a good track record of finals and wins. The combination of competitiveness and general physical fitness and competence combined with a decent public following usually mean sports player do well in the early stages of the competition and can capitalise on this to stretch for the final. Cohen’s work with the Ben Cohen Stand Up foundation adds a bit of wild card. Will a big gay following translate into a strong voting performance? I’d like to think so. Can he dance? He’s a back – he should be able to move his feet. A strong contender.
Dave Myres
The comedy one from the Hairy Bikers. What’s not to love about an overweight funny Northerner being lead about the dance floor by a lithe beautiful dancer? It’s Jon Sargent with a beard and recipe book. However, underneath that jolly rotund exterior is the heart of a man who takes great joy in life and who might well relish the chance to dance a few stone off and therefore put the effort in. Decent public following. He’s my outsider.
Deborah Meaden
Meadon is a bit of a wild card. She has a strong personality. I think she’s quite likable and once she is free of the Dragon’s Den caricature and has a chance to show some more humane elements she should prove sympathetic. If she is able to combine this with visibly enjoying the dancing and steadily improving she should last well in the latter stages of the knock out stage. If she can’t dance – she’s toast early on.
Fiona Fullerton
Whe’ll poll well and makes a solid bet for a mid-table finish.
Mark Benton
An actor, with one of those “I know who that is! Thingamy. He was in, you know, that thing, with the Whatshername – the blonde one.” faces. I don’t think he’ll score well enough on dancing, natural constituency, charisma or improvement to last long.
Natalie Gumede
Coronation Street regular Gumede apparently has bags of dance training. I also note without comment that Googling her name brings up the suggested search result Natalie Gumede Feet – a sure sign that she’s considered sexy. If she’s not a finalist I’ll eat her dance shoes.
Patrick Robinson
I have a bit of a blind spot for Casualty. I don’t know how much weight Casualty actors carry with the public. So, I’m predicting mid-table mediocrity for Robinson. A dignified struggled followed by an – it’s time to go ending.
Rachel Riley
Rachel Riley is a stunningly attractive woman with a much admired figure. Her professional demeanour on Countdown cracks a little on saltier more adult shows to reveal a wicked, nay impish, sense of humour. Perhaps the superlative teatime sex symbol. Ten percent of votes cast in SCD this year will be to keep Riley in for one more week just in case her tits falls out of her top. I was just about to type that unless she chins Tess Daly she can’t fail to place well but there are people who like that sort of thing and chinning Daly would, in fact, only enhance her voter appeal. Personally, I think she is too self-conscious and physically awkward to dance well enough to get to the final but I could well be wrong about her prospects. On balance, I’m backing sex appeal over dancing skill.
Sophie Ellis-Bextor
If this ain’t Sophie Ellis-Bextor why do I feel so good? My head says she ought to a technically strong contender, my heart says, she’s been out of the public attention for too long. Early exit.
as once a Bond Girl, but is now someone who was once a Bond Girl. No natural constituency. Unless she can dance like Madame Pavlova an early exit.
Julien Macdonald
Fashion guru on Strictly: It Takes Two Macdonald is a SCD insider. With his love of the costume and his flamboyant personality I think Susanna Reid
Intelligent, charming, beautiful, highly fancied on the internet. Highly fancied on my sofa. Frequently seen dressed like an ABBA tribute band member on Children in Need. BBC Breakfast viewers to appeal to. BBC news have two former winners of the competition, Kaplinsky in Series One and Chris “Charleston” Hollins a few years back. Viewers votes will carry her into the middle section easily. If she can dance a potential finalist.
Tony Jacklin
A famous golfer but a long time out of the limelight. The oldest contestant. I don’t see him having the combination of dancing skill and public recognition to go very far.
Vanessa Feltz
Widely seen as a loud mouthed nutjob Feltz struggles on several fronts. However, she works hard and when enthusiastic about something her enthusiasm definitely shows through. Another contestant who is carrying a bit of weight and might see SCD as a good chance to publically get fit. This often goes down well with the voters. A dark horse, perhaps? But I think my gut says early exit.
So my predictions for order of exit
1)Mark Benton
2)Ashley Clancy
3) Fiona Fullerton
4) Tony Jackin
5) Vanessa Feltz
6) Sophie Ellis-Bextor
7) Patrick Robinson
8) Julien Macdonald
9) Deborah Meadon
10) Dave Myers
Which gives a final five of
Ashely Taylor Dawson
Ben Cohen
Natalie Gumede
Rachel Riley
Susanna Reid.
The winner – Ben Cohen.
I’m not certain of the format so I’ve ranked the contestants in order of leaving, rather week of exit, then picked a top five to appear in the semi-final and final with my prediction of an eventual winner. I did pretty well with my predictions last year. I was unfortunately blinded by Denise van Outen’s
First, some commentary on each contestant
Abbey Clancey
A moderately well known model I don’t see her being popular with much of the SCD constituency. Splitting the Fit As… vote with Rachel Rilley I think Rilley has a broader and deeper constituency to fall back on. Clancy to be an early leaver.
Ashley Taylor Dawson
A soap actor, former youth band member and one for the ladies Dawson is a strong contender. Periods at stage school should help his dancing. I think he’ll be immune to the DVO Death Dance School slur because he’s a guy.
Ben Cohen.
Sportspersons usually do well in SCD with a good track record of finals and wins. The combination of competitiveness and general physical fitness and competence combined with a decent public following usually mean sports player do well in the early stages of the competition and can capitalise on this to stretch for the final. Cohen’s work with the Ben Cohen Stand Up foundation adds a bit of wild card. Will a big gay following translate into a strong voting performance? I’d like to think so. Can he dance? He’s a back – he should be able to move his feet. A strong contender.
Dave Myres
The comedy one from the Hairy Bikers. What’s not to love about an overweight funny Northerner being lead about the dance floor by a lithe beautiful dancer? It’s Jon Sargent with a beard and recipe book. However, underneath that jolly rotund exterior is the heart of a man who takes great joy in life and who might well relish the chance to dance a few stone off and therefore put the effort in. Decent public following. He’s my outsider.
Deborah Meaden
Meadon is a bit of a wild card. She has a strong personality. I think she’s quite likable and once she is free of the Dragon’s Den caricature and has a chance to show some more humane elements she should prove sympathetic. If she is able to combine this with visibly enjoying the dancing and steadily improving she should last well in the latter stages of the knock out stage. If she can’t dance – she’s toast early on.
Fiona Fullerton
Whe’ll poll well and makes a solid bet for a mid-table finish.
Mark Benton
An actor, with one of those “I know who that is! Thingamy. He was in, you know, that thing, with the Whatshername – the blonde one.” faces. I don’t think he’ll score well enough on dancing, natural constituency, charisma or improvement to last long.
Natalie Gumede
Coronation Street regular Gumede apparently has bags of dance training. I also note without comment that Googling her name brings up the suggested search result Natalie Gumede Feet – a sure sign that she’s considered sexy. If she’s not a finalist I’ll eat her dance shoes.
Patrick Robinson
I have a bit of a blind spot for Casualty. I don’t know how much weight Casualty actors carry with the public. So, I’m predicting mid-table mediocrity for Robinson. A dignified struggled followed by an – it’s time to go ending.
Rachel Riley
Rachel Riley is a stunningly attractive woman with a much admired figure. Her professional demeanour on Countdown cracks a little on saltier more adult shows to reveal a wicked, nay impish, sense of humour. Perhaps the superlative teatime sex symbol. Ten percent of votes cast in SCD this year will be to keep Riley in for one more week just in case her tits falls out of her top. I was just about to type that unless she chins Tess Daly she can’t fail to place well but there are people who like that sort of thing and chinning Daly would, in fact, only enhance her voter appeal. Personally, I think she is too self-conscious and physically awkward to dance well enough to get to the final but I could well be wrong about her prospects. On balance, I’m backing sex appeal over dancing skill.
Sophie Ellis-Bextor
If this ain’t Sophie Ellis-Bextor why do I feel so good? My head says she ought to a technically strong contender, my heart says, she’s been out of the public attention for too long. Early exit.
as once a Bond Girl, but is now someone who was once a Bond Girl. No natural constituency. Unless she can dance like Madame Pavlova an early exit.
Julien Macdonald
Fashion guru on Strictly: It Takes Two Macdonald is a SCD insider. With his love of the costume and his flamboyant personality I think Susanna Reid
Intelligent, charming, beautiful, highly fancied on the internet. Highly fancied on my sofa. Frequently seen dressed like an ABBA tribute band member on Children in Need. BBC Breakfast viewers to appeal to. BBC news have two former winners of the competition, Kaplinsky in Series One and Chris “Charleston” Hollins a few years back. Viewers votes will carry her into the middle section easily. If she can dance a potential finalist.
Tony Jacklin
A famous golfer but a long time out of the limelight. The oldest contestant. I don’t see him having the combination of dancing skill and public recognition to go very far.
Vanessa Feltz
Widely seen as a loud mouthed nutjob Feltz struggles on several fronts. However, she works hard and when enthusiastic about something her enthusiasm definitely shows through. Another contestant who is carrying a bit of weight and might see SCD as a good chance to publically get fit. This often goes down well with the voters. A dark horse, perhaps? But I think my gut says early exit.
So my predictions for order of exit
1)Mark Benton
2)Ashley Clancy
3) Fiona Fullerton
4) Tony Jackin
5) Vanessa Feltz
6) Sophie Ellis-Bextor
7) Patrick Robinson
8) Julien Macdonald
9) Deborah Meadon
10) Dave Myers
Which gives a final five of
Ashely Taylor Dawson
Ben Cohen
Natalie Gumede
Rachel Riley
Susanna Reid.
The winner – Ben Cohen.
