On Life After Losing the Independence Referendum

[danieldwilliam]

Here is how I think the Independence Referendum is going to play out.

I think the Yes campaign are going to lose. I think they will poll about 40% of the vote.  I’d call this result a definate maybe. Not enough of a rejection to make those who really, really want Scottish independence to give up for fifty years (1). Not close enough to make independence supporters think that they might win a second referendum in 5 years’ time and go through on the away goals rule (2). Some might try to paint this as a resounding vote in favour of the Union but I don’t think it will be seen as such by the people of Scotland. Most Scots will feel that their preferred option of some more powers up to and perhaps including fiscal autonomy wasn’t put to them. I think the result will be seen for what it is, a vote for neither of the two options on offer.

Over the next two years Scotland will be engaged in a long conversation about the constitution, about the practicalities of politics in a multi-nation state, about wealth creation and distribution and national identity.  So will England.

From a Scottish point of view I think what will emerge from this is a settled demand for more powers for Holyrood.  I think it likely that the bare minimum acceptable increase of powers will be offered as part of the No campaign in order to buy off some floating voters. I think a campaign around fiscal autonomy will begin to coalesce as a No win looks more likely.

There are real threats for anyone who tries to deny strong and consistent demands for more autonomy from Scotland.  The Labour Party in particular are vulnerable to losing Westminster seats to the SNP (3) if they take a No vote as an endorsement of the status quo. With the result at 40% or there abouts, those in favour of more autonomy will be able to argue that unless more powers are forthcoming there is the prospect of a second, successful independence referendum in less than a generation.  Scotland can await England’s best offer on a revised constitutional settlement for the early part of the 21^st Century.

The independence referendum will engage large numbers of people into political activity. That’s my prediciton based on seeing how activists joined and remained within the reform movement following the AV referendum. Some of these people will remain active after the referendum and that’s your presure group for Devolution Max.

What about England?  Part of the difficulty of giving, or returning, more powers to Scotland is that the more powers are located in Scotland the more strained our current constitution looks. Powers without fiscal responsibility for Scotland look indulgent.  Powers in Scotland that English areas other than London don’t have look unfair.   The West Lothian questions become more and more begged.  All the talk of national identity and national priorities in Scotland is bound to provoke similar thinking in England.  Is the current constitutional framework working for England?  Is it working for London? For Cornwall? How do you deal with the differences in opinion and wealth between the South and the North?

So, I see some renewed discussion in England about an English Parliament, or devolved regional assemblies or returning more power and more fund raising responsibility to local authorities. I’ve no idea how this discussion will turn out. Not really my bag to carry.

It makes the 2015 election really, really interesting from a constitutional point of view. Will the Labour Party go into the election campaign, six months after a No vote with a platform of more powers for the devolved parliaments? Will they go into that election with proposals to address the West Lothian question? For some revised constitutional settlement for England?

Or will they have to be dragged to it?

Will the Labour Party win an outright majority or will the Lib Dems do enough to end up in coalition, and in a position to drag a reluctant Labour Party to some form of reform?

How will the SNP fair in Labour’s urban heartlands of Glasgow and the central belt? How far will non-partisan seekers after fiscal autonomy influence the Scottish Labour Party?

All difficult to tell.

And it all sits around allied constitutional questions about the House of Lords and voting systems.

What I think will happen is that even with a No vote in Scotland there will be an inevitabilty about constitutional change in Scotland. This in turn, I think makes the current arrangement of England without its own parliament or assemblies unworkable. Solving these issues opens further questions about the role of Westminster and the use of voting systems (4).

So constitutional change keeps rumbling on as the background conversation to the more bread and butter issues of taxes and pensions and law and order.

I think the choice for the Labour Party is whether they want to manage this process in the 2010’s or be dragooned into it in the 2020’s.

(1) I think this is sub 30%.

(2) High 40’s, mid 40’s is still too far away.

(3) Those Labour supporters in England who doubt that the SNP are a credible threat to your Glasgow MP’s I’d invite you to think about the five Glasgow Holyrood seats Labour lost to the SNP using first past the post. Would you rather hand over tax raising powers to Holyrood or create 20-30 new marginal seats? How long can you be out of government in Scotland and expect Scots to vote for you at Westminster?

(4) I think it very unlikely that any English Parliament or Assembly would use First Past the Post. And what is the House of Lords for if most domestic policy is being formulated in single chamber regional assemblies?

Comments

[f4f3.livejournal.com]

I like your thoughts.
However, rather than speculate, I'm looking at what happened the last time Scotland voted no (or rather, didn't vote yes by enough to get over a "40% of the entire electorate" hurdle). What we got was 18 years of right-wing rule, where Scotland was used as a social laboratory for the Poll Tax, mass unemployment (which, if it wasn't hurting, wasn't working) and the imposition of a philosophy which held that there was no such thing as society.
In the words of Max Boyce, "I was there". Notable by its absence in these two decades was any sort of concession to constitutional reform. No meant no.

OK, so we're not in 1979 anymore (Toto) and Scotland now has a parliament. But a No vote will serve as a signal (or an excuse) to a Conservative government that Scotland does not need or want any more devolution. Pressure will continue from Unionist parties (the Lab/Con consensus)that those elements introduced by Holyrood which are most popular here, like free prescriptions, aged health care and free university education, should be rolled back. Voting in a majority of SNP MSPs will make no more difference than voting in 50 Labour MPs made in the 80's and 90's.
Sorry to sound so negative, but I am looking at the precedents not only of 1979, but of the AV referendum. There will be a movement in the next two years to paint a "No" vote as a way of getting Devo-Max by the back door. This will be encouraged by the Unionist parties making promises of federalism, or fiscal autonomy, or free pie suppers. These promises, like fairy gold, will disappear in the morning. They were made in '79. The argument that needs to be made, again and again, is that if you want change you need to vote for change. Cameron wanted to make sure there was no Devo Max option on offer, because that would have been an enforceable promise. Like it or not the options now are Independence or the status quo.

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

The past is a different country.

It’s politcally impossible for Westminster to tinker in Scottish affairs in the way it did in the 80’s.

Holyrood makes a difference because Scotland can easily vote for another referendum by voting in a majority SNP government.

Which Conservative government were you thinking of? The one re-elected with a working majority in 2015?

[f4f3.livejournal.com]

Do you really think that the present government is anything other than a Conservative administration with a few LDs tied up in the boot? And a few bouncing up and down in the passenger seat, squealing "Go faster! Go faster!"

There is nothing which is politically impossible for Westminster to do. All it takes is a decision that Scotland doesn't matter a damn, and they can behave exactly as they please, with no damage to their core constituency.

Scotland may well vote in another SNP government in 2016. That government might well call for another referendum, if the Nay sayers carry the day. Do you think Westminster will grant them a derogation of powers again, to make it legal? Bet you a dollar?

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

The next indepedence referendum won’t be in the parliament 2016-2020.

By then the SNP governmentment will be in it’s 9th year and second term and beaten in a referendum. I would give even money that they remain the largest party. I don’t expect them to win a majority. Even if they did they would have no grounds on which to seek a referendum because the constitutional reforms implied by the referendum result won’t have not been delivered.

My guess is, that if you are correct that there will be no further constitutional reforms, in 2015+ or 2020+, the referendum would fall in about 2027.

50 SNP MP’s, even half a dozen, would make a significant difference if a minority Labour Party was reliant on them for a confidence and supply arrangement.

[f4f3.livejournal.com]

I don't eant to wait until 2027. I'll be in my prime by then.

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

Well, then you personally need to find about 200,001 votes between now and October 2014.

[f4f3.livejournal.com]

I need to find one. As long as everyone else who's voting Yes does the same, we'll have a majority.

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

But they are not going to. Because they are high on haggis fumes and Braveheart and promises of removing Trident.

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

Yes, I do genuinely believe that the current UK government is not just a Tory government.

I think it’s exactly what it purports to be. A Tory lead coaltion with a significantly Orange Liberal Democrat minority partner. Further more I think they are doing exactly what I would want and expect from such a minority position which is to frustrate the Tory social right wing.

[f4f3.livejournal.com]

I really would like to know what the current government isn't doing that a full-fat Tory one would. Seriously.

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

Well, referendums on voting reform and a vote on reform of the House of Lords for starters.

Not having a referendum on leaving the EU.

Some tax rises or tax cuts avoided.

Shifting the personal allowance.

Have we invaded Iran? Are we going to? I think it less likely.

Moves towards same sex marriage.

Leveson enquiry I suspect would have quitely not happened with a Tory majority government.

[f4f3.livejournal.com]

A referendum that they cynically sabotaged from the word go. And a vote that they refused to support (and, btw, neither of these actually changed anything).

"Some tax rises or tax cuts avoided." - um, care to be a little less specific? :)

"Shifting the personal allowance." - I think they'd have done this anyway, to distract from the 50% rate being cut.

"Have we invaded Iran? Are we going to? I think it less likely." - that's entirely down to America not tugging our lead. Yet. There is no chance that a UK government of any stripe would instigate that one on their own, and practically no chance that they wouldn't follow the Americans if they started it.

"Moves towards same sex marriage." - Didn't DC come out in favour of this before the election? And, pace "The Hokey Cokey", they aren't in yet.

"Leveson enquiry I suspect would have quitely not happened with a Tory majority government."

I'm really not sure about that one. After all, even after firing Vince and putting Hunt in charge of the Sky bid, they still kicked it out after the NoTW scandal hit.

Even if all of what you say was true, though, it would be dwarfed alongside making the NHS sell-off possible.

[f4f3.livejournal.com]

Oh, and they avoided having an EU referendum quite handily for 18 years last time they were in government.

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

The NHS sell off is speculation.


It’s also speculation that only affects England because of….

…. The devolved parliament at Holyrood.

[fearmeforiampink]

The second reading of Lords reform had I think 80% of the MPs voting for it. It's a step along the road. Amongst other things, it's raised in parliament all the issues that will need to be looked at when we try again, which will mean the next time it's put forwards, that bill should be a better fit to whatever reactions come.

[rhythmaning.livejournal.com]

Removing many low paid from income tax by raising the tax threshhold.

Gay marriage was another LibDem policy.

Loads more.

http://www.whatthehellhavethelibdemsdone.com/

And just imagine the Tories without LibDems keeping them in check!

[f4f3.livejournal.com]

The problem is that I can't think of a single thing the Tories want to do that the LDs have stopped them doing.

[f4f3.livejournal.com]

Hmm, putting
"Pushed for an end to the controversial ContactPoint database for school children, which was switched off on 6 August 2010"
on one side of the scales and £500 million worth of contracts to private health care providers in the other... Um. Well done, LDs.

[f4f3.livejournal.com]

I know I'm ranting to myself just now, but I'm also really hacked off by the media coverage given to the Lib Dem report "obtained" by the BBC ("obtained"? What we need is a public inquiry on leaking)floating the idea of Home Rule. As if there were the tiniest, most microscopic possibility that the LDs could deliver on this, after 100 years of trying.

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

Someone I know once said if you want change you need to vote for it.

So, I’ll be putting my cross next to a yellow box for change.

[f4f3.livejournal.com]

Me too.

Why will it be yellow?

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

Lib Dem colours.

[f4f3.livejournal.com]

Ah - so are you talking about the 2015/16 elections, rather than the referendum?

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

I am.

I’ll be making my choice in my very marginal constituency (1) mainly based on which party is most likely to effect constitutional change in the 2015-2020 parliament.

This might be the Labour party is they recognise what I think is happening in Scotland and England. It might be the SNP if the polls look likely to show a minority Labour Government and the Lib Dems look like not winning Edinburgh South. It might be the Lib Dems because they have constitutional reform written deeply inside them.

(1) Assuming I don’t move house.

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

Also, the colours of the SNP.