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danieldwilliamIn the wake of #IndyRef I’ve seen many suggestions that Scottish Labour are dead and that the SNP will win a majority of seats of Westminster seats in the 2015 General Election.
I don’t think the end has come for Scottish Labour. I think Scottish Labour is in long term decline with an existential threat. Nothing that is acceptable to them will repair their situation. The end is nigh-ish.
What is the problem?
Scottish Labour haven’t won an election a Holyrood election since 2003. That’s ten years and counting. Since 1999 MSP’s returned to Holyrood have fallen from 56 to 37. Over the same period the number of local councillors returned for Labour has fallen from 550 to 394. In contrast the SNP have increased councillors from 204 to 425 and MSP’s from 35 to 69, including a supposedly impossible absolute majority at Holyrood.
Things are a little more static in the European elections. At the moment Labour are down a little, the SNP up a little. The big change is that in 1999 the Labour Party had 3 MSP’s returned on 28.7% of the vote. They currently have two on 25.9%.
This long slow decline in the Labour party vote is built on a number of factors.
The first and most important is that the Scottish Labour Party is not focusing its efforts on Holyrood. As an organisation its main focus appears to be on winning UK general elections. Fine, perhaps even right, but with much of the day to day government of Scotland happening at Holyrood this give Scottish Labour a problem. What is it’s Scottish offering? What is it for?
The second, linked problem, is that this diffused Scottish offering is being made by the Scottish Labour ‘B’ team. Most of the Labour Party’s talent in Scotland is pointed at Westminster. There is a local minima problem here. After You. It’s easy to say that the solution is for some of the current Labour senior figures to relocate to Holyrood and for some of the Bright Young Things to do the same. After You. Unless many of them go, it will not work for any of them. Whilst those that go are having a difficult dust up with Sturgeon and Swinney and co those that stay are lining up UK Cabinet posts or dreaming of occupying Ten Downing Street. Bute House is nice but it’s not Downing Street, so After You.
Thirdly, it appears that the ability of Scottish Labour to offer a Scottish offer is restricted by Labour in London so that there aren’t mixed messages or scenes of disloyalty.
Fourth the combination of 1-3 above makes the Scottish Labour election campaign really, really, really poor.
Finally, the SNP and Greens and SSP gain from the anti-establishment mood of the UK and the use of PR in Scotland allows them to translate in to seats at elections, mainly at the expense of the Labour Party.
Current opinion polls for Holyrood see the SNP remaining in government, some with as a minority government with support from the Greens, some with an increased majority. An increased majority from an absolute majority in a system designed specifically not to allow the SNP to win an absolute majority.
And the more this goes on the less likely anyone Scottish from London is likely to sacrifice themselves to go to Holyrood to sort it out. The longer this goes on the more likely it is that the next generation of Scottish political activists find their natural home in the SNP.
Added to this are the truly staggering increases in SNP (and Green and SSP) membership. SNP membership has increased by over 40,000 to over 70,000 members making them the third largest UK political party on only 8% of the UK population. Approximately 1 in every 60 Scottish voters is a member of the SNP. They have more members than the Communist Party of China. (1) The Labour Party might have 10,000 members in Scotland.
So, the SNP are going to win 40 Westminster seats in 2015.
Well no.
As John Curtis points out things are not quite as dire as at the moment as the hullaballoo would have you believe. The Labour Westminster vote is perhaps down a little, perhaps a little softer than it was but it’s still there and still functionally the same as it was in 2010.
True many Labour voters voted for independence. I think those that did voted for independence in the hope that it would short circuit their side having to win the 2015 and 2020 general elections. It doesn’t necessarily mean that they see independence as a permanent panacea. What is the next decision then need to make. The 2015 general election will probably be framed as a fight between Labour and Conservatives over who can manage the deficit least badly.
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/10/labour-worried/
The 70,000 SNP members might make a bit of a difference but the ability of a ground campaign to overturn the effects of the strategic situation of an election and the air campaign are limited.
There is also what I call the First Past the Post inflection point or the Only A Bar Chart Can Win Here principle. First Past the Post elections are about getting more votes for your broad coalition than the other broad coalition gets and concentrating them behind one candidate. A large factor in this is trying to narrow down your choices to who you think is okay who can win and who you hate who might win. At the moment it looks like most people who would vote centre-left will still think the only people who can win the seat they live in over the Tories are Labour. This is backed up by a few remarks from Curtis. There are no seats where the SNP are within 10% of the Labour vote. There not many where they are within 20%. There are not many seats where an easily achievable switch from Labour to SNP puts the SNP through.
Whilst a lot of one-time Labour voters voted Yes, perhaps more than a third about one in five SNP voters voted No. Voters in Scotland already happily split their vote between Labour at Westminster and the SNP at Holyrood. If you can ask what is the point of the Labour Party at Holyrood you can equally ask what the point of the SNP at Westminster is.
This isn’t to say that the No vote wasn’t bad news for Scottish Labour. It was. They badly ran a negative campaign. There is a video of their current leader basically agreeing that Scotland is too poor, too wee and too stupid to thrive as an independent country. They’ve irritated lots of voters. Alienated many of their activists. Demonstrated once again that they are basically the Glasgow wing of the Islington Labour Party. They’ve lost members to the SNP. They go in to the 2015 General Election in poor shape against an opposition that has been energised and enthused and angered by losing the referendum. With a close General Election result and constitutional issues in play the SNP will fancy holding the balance of power and have everything to play for.
What does winning mean? For the Labour Party is means getting more seats than the Tories at Westminster. For the SNP it means taking a few seats off Labour.
(With Salmond stepping down as First Minister, the SNP now have a spare heavy weight figure of their own to deploy against a vulnerable inner-city Labour seat. Just a thought.)
But I don’t think the General Election in 2015 will be a harpoon through the heart for the once mighty whale of Scottish Labour.
My main assumption is that we don’t see significant constitutional reform or electoral reform in the UK over the next 5 years i.e. that the Vow is trashed and that Labour and the Tories can’t work a suitable constitutional settlement in England that leaves both of them, but only them, in with a chance of running the government.
What I think is more likely to happen is this.
If the SNP are lucky rumours that Johann Lamont is about to be booted in favour of Jim Murphy will prove true. Imagine trying to run for First Minister of Scotland when you are not even the leader of Scottish Labour.
The SNP do well in Scotland in 2015. They pick up a few seats, maybe a dozen. If they end up holding the balance of power at Westminster then they get marginally more favourable funding and a marginally more favourable constitutional settlement from Westminster until the Tories scupper the whole thing by insisting on English Votes for English Laws which the London Labour Party will reject. A good result for the SNP would be to get within 10% in a lot of seats ready for the bar charts in 2020.
In 2016 the SNP win a third term under fresh leadership. In particular they will be chipping away at Labour’s constituency vote in Glasgow and Dundee. By then the Solemn Vow will have been exposed for the unworkable and undeliverable fantasy that it is and many of those who voted Labour and No to get Devo Max will have seen that their referendum vote was hornswoggled out of them. The SNP’s 2016 election campaign of only a vote for the SNP can guarantee Home Rule and that’s the only way to stop Labour and the Tories cutting our budgets.
Following the 2016 Holyrood election comes the real death knell for Scottish Labour the next round of local elections. Here’s where the SNP’s new Grand Army comes in to play with a hugely more effective Get Out The Vote campaign leading to many Labour councillors losing their seats. Electoral Reform Society research shows a strong link between local councillors in an area and wining and holding Westminster seats. With their local councillor diminished the Labour party infrastructure is now under significant pressure.
Come the 2020 UK general election the combination of the SNP having created lots more marginal seats in 2015 and having a massively better Scottish infrastructure and the loss of incumbency factors as Labour MP’s retire puts the SNP in with a chance of winning the 2020 General Election.
And that’s when Nicola Sturgeon stands a chance of harpooning the whale.
(1) Not quite, the Communist Party of China has 86.7m members out of a population of 1,351m, about one in every 16 of the population.
I don’t think the end has come for Scottish Labour. I think Scottish Labour is in long term decline with an existential threat. Nothing that is acceptable to them will repair their situation. The end is nigh-ish.
What is the problem?
Scottish Labour haven’t won an election a Holyrood election since 2003. That’s ten years and counting. Since 1999 MSP’s returned to Holyrood have fallen from 56 to 37. Over the same period the number of local councillors returned for Labour has fallen from 550 to 394. In contrast the SNP have increased councillors from 204 to 425 and MSP’s from 35 to 69, including a supposedly impossible absolute majority at Holyrood.
Things are a little more static in the European elections. At the moment Labour are down a little, the SNP up a little. The big change is that in 1999 the Labour Party had 3 MSP’s returned on 28.7% of the vote. They currently have two on 25.9%.
This long slow decline in the Labour party vote is built on a number of factors.
The first and most important is that the Scottish Labour Party is not focusing its efforts on Holyrood. As an organisation its main focus appears to be on winning UK general elections. Fine, perhaps even right, but with much of the day to day government of Scotland happening at Holyrood this give Scottish Labour a problem. What is it’s Scottish offering? What is it for?
The second, linked problem, is that this diffused Scottish offering is being made by the Scottish Labour ‘B’ team. Most of the Labour Party’s talent in Scotland is pointed at Westminster. There is a local minima problem here. After You. It’s easy to say that the solution is for some of the current Labour senior figures to relocate to Holyrood and for some of the Bright Young Things to do the same. After You. Unless many of them go, it will not work for any of them. Whilst those that go are having a difficult dust up with Sturgeon and Swinney and co those that stay are lining up UK Cabinet posts or dreaming of occupying Ten Downing Street. Bute House is nice but it’s not Downing Street, so After You.
Thirdly, it appears that the ability of Scottish Labour to offer a Scottish offer is restricted by Labour in London so that there aren’t mixed messages or scenes of disloyalty.
Fourth the combination of 1-3 above makes the Scottish Labour election campaign really, really, really poor.
Finally, the SNP and Greens and SSP gain from the anti-establishment mood of the UK and the use of PR in Scotland allows them to translate in to seats at elections, mainly at the expense of the Labour Party.
Current opinion polls for Holyrood see the SNP remaining in government, some with as a minority government with support from the Greens, some with an increased majority. An increased majority from an absolute majority in a system designed specifically not to allow the SNP to win an absolute majority.
And the more this goes on the less likely anyone Scottish from London is likely to sacrifice themselves to go to Holyrood to sort it out. The longer this goes on the more likely it is that the next generation of Scottish political activists find their natural home in the SNP.
Added to this are the truly staggering increases in SNP (and Green and SSP) membership. SNP membership has increased by over 40,000 to over 70,000 members making them the third largest UK political party on only 8% of the UK population. Approximately 1 in every 60 Scottish voters is a member of the SNP. They have more members than the Communist Party of China. (1) The Labour Party might have 10,000 members in Scotland.
So, the SNP are going to win 40 Westminster seats in 2015.
Well no.
As John Curtis points out things are not quite as dire as at the moment as the hullaballoo would have you believe. The Labour Westminster vote is perhaps down a little, perhaps a little softer than it was but it’s still there and still functionally the same as it was in 2010.
True many Labour voters voted for independence. I think those that did voted for independence in the hope that it would short circuit their side having to win the 2015 and 2020 general elections. It doesn’t necessarily mean that they see independence as a permanent panacea. What is the next decision then need to make. The 2015 general election will probably be framed as a fight between Labour and Conservatives over who can manage the deficit least badly.
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/10/labour-worried/
The 70,000 SNP members might make a bit of a difference but the ability of a ground campaign to overturn the effects of the strategic situation of an election and the air campaign are limited.
There is also what I call the First Past the Post inflection point or the Only A Bar Chart Can Win Here principle. First Past the Post elections are about getting more votes for your broad coalition than the other broad coalition gets and concentrating them behind one candidate. A large factor in this is trying to narrow down your choices to who you think is okay who can win and who you hate who might win. At the moment it looks like most people who would vote centre-left will still think the only people who can win the seat they live in over the Tories are Labour. This is backed up by a few remarks from Curtis. There are no seats where the SNP are within 10% of the Labour vote. There not many where they are within 20%. There are not many seats where an easily achievable switch from Labour to SNP puts the SNP through.
Whilst a lot of one-time Labour voters voted Yes, perhaps more than a third about one in five SNP voters voted No. Voters in Scotland already happily split their vote between Labour at Westminster and the SNP at Holyrood. If you can ask what is the point of the Labour Party at Holyrood you can equally ask what the point of the SNP at Westminster is.
This isn’t to say that the No vote wasn’t bad news for Scottish Labour. It was. They badly ran a negative campaign. There is a video of their current leader basically agreeing that Scotland is too poor, too wee and too stupid to thrive as an independent country. They’ve irritated lots of voters. Alienated many of their activists. Demonstrated once again that they are basically the Glasgow wing of the Islington Labour Party. They’ve lost members to the SNP. They go in to the 2015 General Election in poor shape against an opposition that has been energised and enthused and angered by losing the referendum. With a close General Election result and constitutional issues in play the SNP will fancy holding the balance of power and have everything to play for.
What does winning mean? For the Labour Party is means getting more seats than the Tories at Westminster. For the SNP it means taking a few seats off Labour.
(With Salmond stepping down as First Minister, the SNP now have a spare heavy weight figure of their own to deploy against a vulnerable inner-city Labour seat. Just a thought.)
But I don’t think the General Election in 2015 will be a harpoon through the heart for the once mighty whale of Scottish Labour.
My main assumption is that we don’t see significant constitutional reform or electoral reform in the UK over the next 5 years i.e. that the Vow is trashed and that Labour and the Tories can’t work a suitable constitutional settlement in England that leaves both of them, but only them, in with a chance of running the government.
What I think is more likely to happen is this.
If the SNP are lucky rumours that Johann Lamont is about to be booted in favour of Jim Murphy will prove true. Imagine trying to run for First Minister of Scotland when you are not even the leader of Scottish Labour.
The SNP do well in Scotland in 2015. They pick up a few seats, maybe a dozen. If they end up holding the balance of power at Westminster then they get marginally more favourable funding and a marginally more favourable constitutional settlement from Westminster until the Tories scupper the whole thing by insisting on English Votes for English Laws which the London Labour Party will reject. A good result for the SNP would be to get within 10% in a lot of seats ready for the bar charts in 2020.
In 2016 the SNP win a third term under fresh leadership. In particular they will be chipping away at Labour’s constituency vote in Glasgow and Dundee. By then the Solemn Vow will have been exposed for the unworkable and undeliverable fantasy that it is and many of those who voted Labour and No to get Devo Max will have seen that their referendum vote was hornswoggled out of them. The SNP’s 2016 election campaign of only a vote for the SNP can guarantee Home Rule and that’s the only way to stop Labour and the Tories cutting our budgets.
Following the 2016 Holyrood election comes the real death knell for Scottish Labour the next round of local elections. Here’s where the SNP’s new Grand Army comes in to play with a hugely more effective Get Out The Vote campaign leading to many Labour councillors losing their seats. Electoral Reform Society research shows a strong link between local councillors in an area and wining and holding Westminster seats. With their local councillor diminished the Labour party infrastructure is now under significant pressure.
Come the 2020 UK general election the combination of the SNP having created lots more marginal seats in 2015 and having a massively better Scottish infrastructure and the loss of incumbency factors as Labour MP’s retire puts the SNP in with a chance of winning the 2020 General Election.
And that’s when Nicola Sturgeon stands a chance of harpooning the whale.
(1) Not quite, the Communist Party of China has 86.7m members out of a population of 1,351m, about one in every 16 of the population.
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Date: 2014-10-06 10:34 am (UTC)