back of a spreadsheet; back of the net

I realised when I was writing this that I didn't know nearly enough about energy in India. Which is a bit of an oversight because India is one of the largest countries in the world, is industrialising and getting richer very quickly and is already in the top 3 or 4 for population, energy use, renewable energy deployment etc. So I hit up Wikipedia and google to try and find out a bit more.

Power demand expected to triple by 2040.

India currently behind the USA and China in energy demand. India's energy and electricity demand is growing rapidly. It imports half it's primary energy. Overall energy demand is growing faster than domestic supply is growing so imports are rising.

Prime energy demand is increasing, energy production is increasing but more slowly, electrification is happening

More than half of prime energy is coal, about a quarter is oil, 1/10th natural gas, 1/10th hydro, 1/20th other renewables

I think it's an interesting situation and I'm not surprised by it. If you had asked me on Wednesday to describe India's energy situation I'd have said, lots of coal, but lots of interest in renewables. And I was right.

Lots of coal.

80% of electricity historically comes from coal. Coal is largely nationalised and large source of national and state income as well as employment.

India has and uses lots of coal. Lots of people work in coal mines. India is building 50 GW of new coal - then the current energy plans say no more coal. Coal is currently about 56% of total capacity and about 70% of generation. Expected to fall in relative terms but increase in absolute terms as energy demand increases. Recent auctions for new coal mines attracted not many bids - 2/5ths of the opportunities got zero bids and zero foreign firms participated.

Other Fossil Fuels.

India doesn't seem to have much in the way of native gas.

Lots of LNG for cooking, mostly in cannisters, not piped. Lots of biomass and charcoal but being replaced by LNG. Biomass and charcoal for cooking are not good for air quality or health.

Trying to replace imported oil with bioethanol - 20% target by 2025, currently achieving about 3%. (I wonder if electrification of transport will happen sooner or later than increases in biofuels for ICE vehicles.)

Renewables are also growing and quite quickly.
The 2030 renewable energy target is 450 GW (but this does include nuclear, and there is a bit of confusion in the way India energy plans talk about clean energy - including nuclear and renewables).

Electricity - renewables 136 GW of installed capacity - target by 2025 of 175 GW, 100 GW of solar, 60 GW wind 10 GW biopower and 5 GW small hydro. Current installed capacity is 38% of total capacity. Actually expected to hit 220GW of clean energy (possibly therefore including nuclear)

90 GW of solar operational, 48 GW in implementation and 26GW in bidding - looking to double solar capacity over the next few years.

India exports wind turbines so has a healthy domestic industry - which implies employment opportunities.

Up to 150 GW of total hydro potential. 56 sites for about 94 GW of pumped hydro storage. Dams also have a role to play in addressing water scarcity issues - so there is perhaps a double win here.

Targeting solar grid parity on cost by 2022. Current record lowest bid for industrial solar PV was US$27 per MWH.

Solar PV can be used to replace the estimated 4-5m diesel generators used for pumping water. Solar PV also seen as helpful for water security and air pollution. Water security appears to be a big problem for coal plants.

An area in the Thar desert capable of producing between 70-100 GW of solar has been put aside for that use.

16GW of biomass potential and some untapped potential for biogas from sewage.

39 GW of wind installed in India. Currently selling at record lows - including solar-wind hybrid projects at US$32 / MWH

India is ranked 4th most attractive in the world as a potential for renewable energy. Renewables have a must-run mandate except for grid stability reasons.

Storage seems to be underdeveloped.

Nuclear

India has an odd international situation with nuclear technology but appears to be able to buy civilian nuclear technology despite its nuclear weapons status.

Currently building 10 nuclear reactors - planning more, bit uncertain if those will actually happen.

Solar PV is the cheapest form of electricity on the grid and this is causing some issues for coal but as demand overall increases coal capacity factors are expected to go back up. Predictions are that by 2030 solar PV plus storage will be cheaper than coal overnight by 2030.
Overall the situation appears to be that India needs more of everything and is building more of everything and that renewables seem to be edging a little ahead of other technologies.

Some sources

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_India

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_India#Global_comparison

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_India

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_India#Nuclear_agreements_with_other_nations

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydroelectric_power_in_India#Pumped_storage_units


https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/india-solar-energy-transition-pandemic-2020

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/cleantech-startup-ecosystem-india

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/coal-king-india

Further to a converation elsewhere I've re-skimmed some Renewables Without the Hot Air estimnates on offshore wind. WOTHA estimate of usage is 195 kwh per person per day. Estimate of shallow offshore wind production is 1 kwh per person per day and deep (25-50m) offshore production at double that, 32 kwh /day / person. Total is 48 kwh /d/p.

Shallow area 40,000 km2 with energy denisity of 3W / m2. 1/3rd of shallow waters to be used. Some vague mumbling about shipping and fishing getting int he way.

Based his assumptionson 3MW turbines. 7MW seems standard now. I reckon we'll see 10-12 as the standard in a few years. Not sure what that does to the energy density by area but it can't hurt.

I've always thought his modelling of the economics was niave in that it did not allow for things to become feasible once the cost started falling. When something becomes cheaper to do than the alternatives it all gets done.

I reckon you could double the estimated output by increasing the turbine size, tower size and increasing the area. That gets you to 98 kwh /d/p.

Use of floating turbines in 50m+ deep waters should get you to double that 98 kwh /d/p or about 200 kwh per person per day.

Building all of this is not a trivial economic or engineering task. I think building solar PV in Morocco and shipping the power north will prove cheaper and quicker.