On Strictly Come Dancing - 2014 - Week 1

[danieldwilliam]

Pretty decent shows over the weekend. The opening number on the Saturday night was perhaps the best opening to any Strictly Come Dancing show ever. The combination of Tess and Claudia seems to be working okay so far. I remain to be convinced that Tess has the necessary gravitas (1) to keep the judges under control and balance the judges, audience and contestants.

One thing I’m going to be watching is how much Craig, Bruno and to a lesser extent Darcey play up to an exaggerated version of themselves. How grumpy can Craig be? How mad as a box of mad frogs out of their heads on LSD and being carried on the back of Salvador Dali’s bicycle can Bruno be?

Now, the dancing.

Lovely waltz from Mmmh Frankie. A clear and deserved lead. Decent performances from Flack Jacket Caroline and That’s Your Lott. My draw in the office sweeper looks okay for the time being. Perhaps the surprise dance of the night was Can’t See the Wood’s Tango. A bit stompy but very dramatic. I also enjoyed Dangerous Steve’s Tango. Good pro tips from Craig on how to manage his muscular arms. Dangerous Steve may be a good outside bet.

I was surprised by how well Reality Hammond did. I was not expecting her to perform so well. I thought she flagged a little at the end of her routine. I wonder if we’ll see a virtuous circle of improving physical fitness leading to improved performance leading to staying in and getting fitter.

The usual caveats about this only being one poll, you have to look at the trend, and individual constituencies enjoy differential incumbency factors only being one week, you have to look at the trend and different couples suit different dances.

At the bottom end of the leaderboard Pudding Loving Gregg, Unfortunately Named Tim, Hey Jude, Not Jennifer Grey and bringing up the rear Scott Mills in the AfternooOOOoon. No surprises there. Time to see who the public favour. Anyone in the bottom five gets put out in the dance off by anyone not in the bottom five at the moment. Will a week and another dance be enough to shift the scores.

With the exception of the surprisingly good tango from Can’t See the Woods the general trend of predictions look okay. I might be tempted to swap out Thom “Dripping” Evans from the Semi-Final list and put Can’t See the Woods in but I think Evans will have the public vote behind him.

Which leads me to Bookies’ Corner.

This year I’m recording the William Hill straight win odds for each contestant each week.

The favourite before the dancing was Pixie Lott at 3/1. She’s now fallen back a little 4/1 with Mmmh Frankie the new favourite at 3/1 from 9/2. She’s the big mover. Going the other way Thom Evans moves out from 4/1 to 6/1. At 16/1 I think I’d fancy Dangerous Backshall. I’m going to run a shadow “investment” portfolio and see if I can come out ahead. (2)

I’ll mainly be watching to see if the odds move in unexpected ways which might indicate that voting information is leaking out.

(1) You Want Me To Grab Its What? ROU (Murderer Class)

(2) Or if not ahead at least only behind the Baby Faced Assassin.

Comments

[widgetfox.livejournal.com]

I thought pretty much the same, especially about Jake and Steve (both of whom I thought slightly overmarked compared to Pixie, who did really well).

Thom is the big question mark. If he settles down and works, he could get the Journey vote. If not, he risks being Pendleton.

[widgetfox.livejournal.com]

That said, I struggle with a critique of judge self-parody that does not refer to Len Goodman.

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

It’s about the information content for me.

Len plays and plays up to the Uncle Len role but what he actually says and the volume of the remarks remains constant (I think). He can avuncularly tell you that you’ve done badly, or done well or need to change X but the tone is separate from the intensity of action required on your part.

For Craig and Bruno I think they risk reducing the amount of information their comments contain by playing up to their role.

Bruno is over-excitable. If you do something good he stands up and whirls round. The more he plays up to that role the less you can believe that he actually *is* too excited to contain himself and the more you might think he doesn’t really mean it, it’s just time for Bruno to jump out of his seat and trigger some avuncular business with Len.

Similarly Craig. When he’s doing good judging he provides blunt but constructive criticism. If I were a contestant I would replay Craig’s commentary, write it down and then work on all the things he mentioned. At times the bluntness becomes brutal and his phrasing can be caustic. I think there is a risk that he plays up to the villain role and is too brutal and too caustic. Too much of that and a contestant is left wondering whether he really means that I’ve done badly or is it just time for the audience to boo and for Tess to flutter her eyelashes at the camera to mollify the audience at home?

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

I wonder if we are Darcey watch againt?

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

Yeah I think Pixie will be disappointed not to have squeezed an extra mark out of the judges.

Thom, Thom, Thom - what is to be done.

I think financially he more than anyone stands to gain from doing well.

[widgetfox.livejournal.com]

Agree re Bruno.

Re Craig - watch the score, not the words. He doesn't hesitate to use the full range.

[widgetfox.livejournal.com]

How not?

[widgetfox.livejournal.com]

Massive unknown factors. It depends on (i) his strength of character and (ii) his actual dancing ability and (iii) whether he and Iveta are really in love and (iv) what that brings out in him if so. Possibly also (v) how much attention he pays to press coverage and (vi) what line they decide to take.

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

Very true.

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

Specifically whether she marks men higher than women.

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

I don't know much about him but I think his strength of character will be higher than average judging by his recovery from a pretty horrible injury.

[widgetfox.livejournal.com]

Fair comment.

JW is contemptuous of him, and every time they show his try says "That's his only try."

[widgetfox.livejournal.com]

I think that would be interesting. You need to compare with aggregate marks (or sans Darcey marks, or both) to ensure it isn't just that the men are better this year. Although I think that's unlikely given Pixie and #Frankie.

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

Yes - curiously suffering a near fatal, career-ending injury during your tenth match will somewhat limit your try scoring opportunities.

He did score 110 points for Glasgow in 60 caps. That's about a try every third game. He was pretty handy.

I wonder if MFJ is objecting to something else?

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

I was thinking exactly that.

Also trying to control for handsomeness, for which I would need some view on the absolute and relative attractiveness of the male contestents.

[widgetfox.livejournal.com]

Darcey seems to go for muscles rather than conventional facial attractiveness. So her order of preference is (i) Steve (ii) Jake (iii) Thom, whereas I'd go in precisely the opposite order.

[widgetfox.livejournal.com]

That would be unlike him if so. I think he's just being super pedantic about criteria for being considered a sportsman.

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

Yeah – I think he’s being harsh here. Creditable club and youth career. Promising international career cut short in tragic circumstances.

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

Steve knows how to approach dangerous animals.

[widgetfox.livejournal.com]

I will point this out to him.

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

Fabrice Muamba is not a bad comparison.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fabrice_Muamba

[rhythmaning.livejournal.com]

I'm commenting here just because - well, the two of you have obviously scared everyone else away!

I guess this is what they call an echo chamber...

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

Or a secret channel of communication between me and my MI6 handler.

[rhythmaning.livejournal.com]

Surely not MI6.

Maybe an infiltration by ASIS, trying to sway the referendum!

That would explain your summer trip, too...!

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

Ah, but I was also in DC and the Pacific North West with their own separatist movements and New Zealand and Singapore.

Who am working for? Who do I think I'm working for?