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I think the election result will be at the bad end of predictions for the Conservative Party and towards the good end of predictions for the Labour Party. My view has shifted on this in the last month or so and especially since the English local elections.
My seat prediction for the Tories is closer to 150 seats than 200 seats.
Reasons I think this.
1) The polling has shown a very consistent and high Labour lead for a long time. This is backed up by government approval and personal approval ratings for Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer.
2) There’s some evidence that tactical anti-Tory voting will be widespread and effective.
3) Reform supports appears to have held up and turned in to votes in an actual election. This was one of the bigger uncertainties for me. I’d expected many Reform supporters to end up voting Conservative but they appear not to have done at the local elections. I think, from that, fewer Reform supporters will vote Tory in the General Election than I was expecting. The Reform vote seems pretty widely and evenly distributed.
4) The large number of Tory MPs standing down. This is both a predictor and a cause of lost seats. As a predictor; Tory MPs are very likely to know what the situation is actually like. If they are leaving before they lose their seat that indicates that they know things are not going well. As a cause; there is an incumbency advantage but that is lost if the sitting MP, especially high profile ones, stand down.
5) The mood of the country (as far as I can tell from the limited view I have of it) seems to be resolutely that it is time for the Tories to be voted out and the harder and more thoroughly they are voted out the better. The people seem consistent about this.
6) The SNP seems to be struggling here in Scotland which means that the Labour Party and the Lib Dems will pick up a number of seats here that they perhaps might not have done with a more popular SNP.
7) The Labour vote seems to be pretty efficiently distributed at the moment. They look set to win many marginal seats with comfortable but not overwhelming majorities and where they are losing votes to the left that seems to be in seats in large urban centres where the Labour Party would otherwise have super-majorities.
So I think the Labour vote will broadly hold up, tactical voting will mean the Lib Dems will pick up more of the Tory-Lib-Dem marginals, Reform will split the Tory vote pretty consistently.
I think the Tories will be lucky to walk away from this election with 150 seats.
My seat prediction for the Tories is closer to 150 seats than 200 seats.
Reasons I think this.
1) The polling has shown a very consistent and high Labour lead for a long time. This is backed up by government approval and personal approval ratings for Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer.
2) There’s some evidence that tactical anti-Tory voting will be widespread and effective.
3) Reform supports appears to have held up and turned in to votes in an actual election. This was one of the bigger uncertainties for me. I’d expected many Reform supporters to end up voting Conservative but they appear not to have done at the local elections. I think, from that, fewer Reform supporters will vote Tory in the General Election than I was expecting. The Reform vote seems pretty widely and evenly distributed.
4) The large number of Tory MPs standing down. This is both a predictor and a cause of lost seats. As a predictor; Tory MPs are very likely to know what the situation is actually like. If they are leaving before they lose their seat that indicates that they know things are not going well. As a cause; there is an incumbency advantage but that is lost if the sitting MP, especially high profile ones, stand down.
5) The mood of the country (as far as I can tell from the limited view I have of it) seems to be resolutely that it is time for the Tories to be voted out and the harder and more thoroughly they are voted out the better. The people seem consistent about this.
6) The SNP seems to be struggling here in Scotland which means that the Labour Party and the Lib Dems will pick up a number of seats here that they perhaps might not have done with a more popular SNP.
7) The Labour vote seems to be pretty efficiently distributed at the moment. They look set to win many marginal seats with comfortable but not overwhelming majorities and where they are losing votes to the left that seems to be in seats in large urban centres where the Labour Party would otherwise have super-majorities.
So I think the Labour vote will broadly hold up, tactical voting will mean the Lib Dems will pick up more of the Tory-Lib-Dem marginals, Reform will split the Tory vote pretty consistently.
I think the Tories will be lucky to walk away from this election with 150 seats.
