On Bye-Elections

[danieldwilliam]

I’m looking forward very much to the Eastleigh bye-election (1). I’m politically engaged, but it’s also a spectator sport for me so a good bye-election has all the romance and harem-scarem excitement of a cup tie.

A straight contest between the coalition partners is a thing of interest. Recent opinion polls put the Conservatives and the Lib Dems pretty much level. Actually, they put the Lib Dem vote slightly but significantly ahead of the Tories but Tory voters more likely to turn out. The struggle is perhaps about whether the Lib Dems can persuade their own voters to turn out for what looks like a meaningless bye-election at a better rate than the Tories can stop UKIP gaining Tory voters in what looks like a great opportunity to protest about, well whatever it is that UKIP voters protest about. (2)

My eye is on the UKIP vote.

However, this isn’t the cup tie I’m really looking forward to. That lies in the future, perhaps never to be realised.  What I’m looking forward to are a couple of bye-elections in Tory-held, Tory-Labour marginal. Why am I looking forward to them. Firstly because the electoral arithmetic in the House of Commons is really tight now and a few seats switching from the Tories to Labour leaves the place properly hung with the Labour Party in theory able to lead a rainbow coalition if groups like Sein Fein and the SNP do odd things.(3)

Anyhow, that requires a relatively young intake of Conservative MP’s to start to die or discover that they’d rather make lots of money in New York. Perhaps the TUC should direct some of the political levy into buying a Big Apple publishing house with an newly discovered interest in over paying for romantic fiction penned by Conservatives.

(1) A sign I think that my health, both physical and mental, is improving after my lost month in January.

(2) ironically, IMO, mainly the failure of the Conservative Party to win the last election.

(3) What price significant devolution as the price of SNP support for a Labour lead adminstration on a confidence and supply basis post a lost referendum in 2014?

Comments

[f4f3.livejournal.com]

One of my friends mentioned that Glasgow would be swamped with Lib Dems in October - I said they'd better enjoy it, because after the next election, they'd be meeting in a phone box. She retorted that I might not be able to vote in the next general election anyway. She has a point.

We do live in interesting times.

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

I think rumours of the death of the Lib Dems might turn out to be exaggerated. I think a lot of the assumption that they will end up with single figures or fewer MP’s are based on applying a universal swing to the reduction in their polling numbers. I don’t think that is a safe assumption at all.

There’s a good chance that will end up in coalition with the Labour party in 2015. Which would make them the party of government this decade.

How on earth are you going to be ineligible to vote in the next general election? Are you planning on being elevated to the Lords?

[f4f3.livejournal.com]

Who is going to vote for them? No Labour voters, that's for sure. And no Tories, who, if they defect, would head for UKIP, but are more likely to flock back to the mother ship. And their core vote is alienated to a huge degree by the leadership (I don't agree with that, by the way - any LD leader would not only kill, but cook their grandmother for a red box. It's why they went into politics, after all).

Jen was referring to the Independence Referendum. If Scotland becomes independent, I'm not sure I'll get a vote in the rUK election.