On Unlock Democracy Elections - East Constituency

[danieldwilliam]

We next skip merrily to the East Constituency, of Yorkshire and the Humber, the East Midlands and East of England and we bring out the big guns.

Out of 1,746 22.7% cast their vote giving 392 votes, electing 4 members with a quota of 78.4.

Elected on the first round with a whopping 102 first preferences is current chair Vicky Seddon. Second preferences from Seddon help Charter 88 founder and former New Statesman Editor, Stuart Weir, into the second seat.

Third placed Diana Wallis sits on 65.14 votes after preferences are distributed from Weir.  Behind the former MEP in fourth place is Liz Carlton on 45.18, and in fifth place is Nan Sloane on 34.47. With no one else polling more than 15 votes and 6 other candidates this looks like it’s going to be a relatively comfortable result for Diana Wallis and a long slog for Calton to pick up the last seat ahead of Sloan.

And so it proves and I think you can really see the nature of the race for 3^rd and 4^th places on the chart.

With a few candidates with relatively few votes none of the next few transfer rounds prove decisive. Transfers break more or less equally between the remaining candidates and both Wallis and Carlton nudge closer to election.

Both Wallis and Carlton hold on to the gap they had after the 3^rd round. Wallis reaches the quota and Carlton finishes on 72.5 votes to Sloan’s 60.78. Had Holvey’s preferences bucked the general trend of being evenly distributed Sloan could have caught Carlton.

A final note of interest is that Owais Rajput was elected to council as the only protected candidate.

Comments

[strange-complex.livejournal.com]

I think you have the wrong image on this post - your commentary is about the East constituency, but the graph is for the North. I'm particularly keen to see the East graph, as it's my own voting area. But am also keen to see your North commentary, since that was yours!

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

D'oh.

Thanks.

Fixed.

North will follow London but London is a beast so it might be tomorrow before I get to my own result.

[strange-complex.livejournal.com]

Thanks - very interesting. I see there's a marked jump in non-transferred ballots after the 9th round, even though some very low-ranked preferences must have come into play towards the end. It shows that ranking as far as possible can really be worthwhile. I studiously ranked all 12 candidates on my paper, although I doubt it made much difference in my case, as my rankings were very similar to the final outcome. I put Vicky Seddon and Stuart Weir first and second, while ranking most of the people who got eliminated early on very low down.