On a Speech in Five Acts

[danieldwilliam]

I watched Nicola Sturgeon's victory speech after the SNP and Scottish Green's election victory in Scotland. I thought it was an excellent example of political rhetoric and I agree with it; both the content and the way the content was presented.

I think it is a speech in five acts. (The full text of the speech is in the comments, as is a short note for non-Scots on the context)

ACT One

We have won this election. We, the SNP, have won the election, we will form the next government. We have won the election comfortably. Overwhelmingly. It was a big win. Perhaps the biggest win ever.

"Indeed, we have won more votes and a higher share of the votes in the constituency ballot than any party in the history of devolution.

This election result is - by any standard - an extraordinary and historic achievement."

ACT Two

We are a One Nation Government, we are here for everyone. That includes refugees, and everyone else who lives in Scotland

"Wherever you are from, whatever age you are, whatever your background – and no matter who you voted for - the SNP in government is dedicated to working hard for you.

I pledge that the task of building a better Scotland for everyone who lives here will be my priority every single day."

ACT Three

COVID

ACT Four

Other progressive policy and administrative endeavours which were in our manifesto.

Elected governments are usually expected to carry out their manifesto.

ACT Five

The people of Scotland have voted for an independence referendum. That is what it means when two parties who have a clear committent to an independence referendum win an election.

It's not me, it's not the SNP, it is the democratic will of the Scottish people as expressed through the ballot box.

"It is a commitment made to the people by a majority of the MSPs who will take their seats in our national parliament next week.

Usually - and by the normal standards of democracy - parties are expected to deliver on the commitments they make in elections, not face attempts to block them from doing so."

If anyone tries to block this from happening they are putting themselves in opposition to the democratic will of the people. if they do that then they have changed the nature of the Union from a voluntary partnership to a something else.

The outcome of the referendum is for the people of Scotland to decide but they have decided to have one.

Speech ends with a summary of the Five Acts.

So what I think is going on is this...

Act One establishes the speaker's credentials to make the claims she is about to make. Nicola Sturgeon leads the SNP, the SNP won the election, it wasn't even close. The SNP has been chosen to run Scotland.

Act Two - attempts to defuse Unionist concerns that they will despised in their own land. The SNP are trying to build a nation which serves even Syrian refugees, everyone in Scotland will be served by this government. Unionists don't worry, this includes you.

Act Three - I won't let the important constitutional questions get in the way of dealing with the life and death pandemic. I am off to do that right now. I'm not an extremist or a fanatic. I know people are dying or loosing their jobs. I will do everything I can to fix this before we start on other stuff.

Act Four - here is some of the other stuff. It was in our manifesto, so people will expect us to deliver it. But by the way, this is the kind of Scotland I'm trying to build, and see Act Two, I'm building it for everyone.

Act Five - but we did win, and one of the things we said we'd do was have a referendum on independence. If Westminster tries to prevent it happening they are picking a fight with you, the people of Scotland, not with me. You voted for this, it's your country, it's supposed to be a democracy and a voluntary union, you should get the referendum you voted for. If you don't, you should ask what sort of country you are actually living in.


It's a pretty bald speech. Plain and simple. There's not a lot of sub-text to it. Mostly the subtext is in Act Two, showing by example that non-SNP voters have nothing to fear. There's a little bit in Act 5. You are invited to consider what the UK Parliament's refusal to support a second referendum says about Scotland's place in the UK. There is a hint that we are an English imperial possession not a partner but it's not said out loud.

It doesn't have much rhetorical flourish. It's not a speech that Obama or Blair would have delivered. It's probably better for that. Directness is what is called for her and Sturgeon lacks Obama's lyricism and has less of Blair's knack for a carefully crafted slogan-meme. But it says 80% of what it intends to say out loud and the obscurer parts are pretty clear.

I think it lays out quite a clear narrative. We won. We should do the things we said we would do. Mostly that is dealing with substantive problems for everyone. It does include a referendum. If you like my solutions to the problems you will probably like an independent Scotland. If you don't think Scotland should have a referendum perhaps you should think about whether you believe in democracy.

I like the speech.

And, I personally, have little doubt about Sturgeon's personal sincerity. I believe it is possible for the Scottish Government to prepare for a second independence referendum and I believe Sturgeon will concentrate most government effort on dealing with the pandemic and delivering the other hundred pages of her manifesto.

Comments

[danieldwilliam]

--Act One --

When the SNP first entered government back in 2007, we secured just one more seat than the Labour Party.

Few people back then could have predicted that 14 years on, the SNP would be re-elected for a fourth consecutive term as Scotland’s government.

And absolutely no-one then would have predicted the sheer scale and record-breaking nature of our victory at this election.

We have won 62 constituency seats - a record number and an incredible 85% of the total.

We haven’t just held on to every constituency we won in 2016 - we’ve also gained seats from both Labour and the Tories.

And while the constituency vote shares of Labour, the Tories and the Lib Dems are all down, the SNP has recorded our best ever share of the constituency vote.

Indeed, we have won more votes and a higher share of the votes in the constituency ballot than any party in the history of devolution.

This election result is - by any standard - an extraordinary and historic achievement.

We took our positive message of hope and recovery to every corner of the country, and it has been endorsed emphatically by the Scottish people.

My heartfelt thanks go to all those in the SNP who worked so hard in such difficult circumstances to make all of this possible.

I also send my warm congratulations to successful candidates from all parties and of course my commiserations to those who lost out. I know - from personal experience - how tough that is.

But most of all I want to thank the people of Scotland for putting their trust in me and in the SNP once again.

We will work to repay that trust every day.

-- Act Two --

Over these past 14 years, the make-up of the Scottish electorate has changed.

16 and 17 year olds can now vote, and seeing so many of our young people engaged and energised inspires real hope for the future.

And in this election, for the very first time, foreign nationals and refugees also had the right to vote - a tangible symbol of the inclusive country we are.

On Thursday morning in my own constituency, I met with Syrian refugees who had just cast their first vote in Scotland.

It was a deeply emotional moment for them - and as a country it should make us proud.

But my message today is for all of Scotland and it is this -

Wherever you are from, whatever age you are, whatever your background – and no matter who you voted for - the SNP in government is dedicated to working hard for you.

I pledge that the task of building a better Scotland for everyone who lives here will be my priority every single day.

-- Act Three --

As First Minister, my immediate and over-riding task will be to everything I can to keep people as safe as possible.

While we are making real and positive progress, we have not yet beaten COVID.

In this election I said tackling the pandemic must come first and I meant it.

I will be returning to work straight away to take the decisions that will guide our next steps back to normality, and onto recovery.

-- Act Four --

In this election, the SNP put forward an ambitious and transformative programme to kick-start and drive recovery.

We will now get on with the job of delivering that programme. It means -

The remobilisation of our NHS, coupled with the investment it needs to secure it for the figure.

A new National Care Service.

Investment to support new, green jobs and reskill people for the jobs of the future.

A Youth Guarantee to secure opportunities for our young people.

Action to tackle the climate emergency and ensure a just transition.

More houses, better schools and an unwavering commitment to lifting children out of poverty.

The policy programme we put before the people of Scotland will move our country forward and make it better – of that I have no doubt.

-- Act Five --

But while we have obviously focussed this weekend on our own election results, the results south of the border reveal an important truth about Scotland and the rest of the UK.

The majority of people in Scotland back a progressive, inclusive, outward looking vision for the future of our nation.

And yet we are facing many more years of right-wing Brexit-obsessed Tory governments that we don’t vote for, taking us in a direction we haven’t chosen.

And that brings into sharp focus the key question we posed at this election - how do we best secure the kind of country we want to build?

And it is why - just as we said in the election - the people in Scotland must have the right to decide our own future when the Covid crisis has passed.

This is now a matter of fundamental democratic principle.

Already today, I hear opposition parties - and some commentators - talking about what they call “SNP demands” for an independence referendum.

They are desperately trying to rewrite the basic rules of democracy and redefine what constitutes an election win and a mandate.

And I hear about Boris Johnson refusing to give in to these demands.

And what supposedly clever manoeuvres Westminster might be planning.

All of this treats voters in Scotland as if they simply don’t matter - like they are just a side-show.

But voters are not a side-show.

You - not me or Boris Johnson - are the people who matter.

And so let’s be clear about what Scotland voted for on Thursday.

The people of Scotland have voted to give pro-independence parties a majority in the Scottish Parliament - the final tally is not yet know, but it looks likely that the pro independence majority will be larger in this parliament than in the last one.

The SNP and Scottish Greens both stood on a clear commitment to an independence referendum within the next Parliamentary term.

And both of us said that the timing of a referendum should be decided by a simple majority of MSPs in the Scottish Parliament.

So in no way can a referendum be described as just a demand of me or the SNP

It is a commitment made to the people by a majority of the MSPs who will take their seats in our national parliament next week.

Usually - and by the normal standards of democracy - parties are expected to deliver on the commitments they make in elections, not face attempts to block them from doing so.

Given the outcome of this election, there is simply no democratic justification whatsoever for Boris Johnson or anyone else seeking to block the right of the people of Scotland to choose our future.

If there is such an attempt it will demonstrate conclusively that the UK is not a partnership of equals and that – astonishingly – Westminster no longer sees the UK as a voluntary union of nations.

That in itself would be a very powerful argument for independence.

Holding a referendum of course does not mean that Scotland will automatically become independent.

That will be a choice for the people of Scotland.

The task for those of us who support independence is to patiently persuade our fellow citizens of the case, and that is what the SNP intends to do.

-- Epilogue --

So let me set out the task ahead - for me and your re-elected SNP government.

First and foremost, it is lead Scotland through the pandemic and to keep people safe.

That will be my focus when I return to my desk tomorrow.

It is then to kick-start and drive our recovery with an ambitious and transformative programme for government.

And, yes, when the crisis has passed, it is to give people in Scotland the right to choose their future.

All of that is what I promised and all of that is what I intend to deliver.

But first, I am getting back to work to lead the country through and out of this Covid crisis.

Thank you for the trust you have once again placed in me.

I promise to serve you with integrity, energy and an unwavering commitment to building the better Scotland we all know is possible.

[danieldwilliam]

Context

Scotland has just had a general election. the SNP won 64 seats out of 129. 65 seats are required for a majority. They are by far the largest party. The Scottish Conservatives in second place won 31 seats.

Scotland uses Mixed Member Proportionality to elect Parliamentarians. It is extremely difficult to actually win a majority in the Scottish Parliament. The expectation built in to the design of the voting system is for coalition governments.

The SNP won 47.7% of constituency votes and 40.3% of regional list votes. The second place Conservatives won 21.9% and 23.5% of the two votes.

Scotland is having a long debate about leaving the UK. We voted against doing so by some margin (55% vs 45%) in 2014 but since 2014 the UK has left the EU on a quite narrow margin (52% vs 48%). During the 2016 EU referendum Scotland voted about 2:1 to remain in the EU. This has kicked off the debate about whether Scotland should be independent, or perhaps more accurately, which supra-national body we should be a member of, the UK or the EU.

The country appears to be pretty evenly divided on the question. Opinion polls hover around 50:50. Tied to the question of whether Scotland should be independent is whether we should have a second referendum on the matter, and if so, when.

The SNP have been in government since 2007. They've won 3 election, now 4.

In addition to the SNP's 64 seats, the Scottish Green Party won 8 seats. Both parties stood explicitly on a manifesto commitment to hold a second independence referendum during this Parliament i.e. before May 2025. Those parties won a clear majority of the seats and, along with the pro-independence Alba party, a majority of regional list votes.

There is some legal debate about whether the Scottish Parliament has the constitutional authority to hold a referendum or whether only the UK Parliament can authorise that through a so called Section 30 Order. (If you don't have a degree in Law, specifically including UK constitutional law I'd probably keep your "opinion" on this technical element of UK constitutional law to yourself but do feel free to link to some learned articles on the matter. I do have a degree in Law, specifically including UK constitutional law and I used to run one of the largest UK constitutional reform campaign organisations and I don't know. )

The UK Prime Minister has, in the past said he will not permit a second referendum.

[cmcmck]

It begins to look interesting, especially as I am of part Scottish ancestry (admittedly that bunch of dodgy border reivers the Scotts, but with the rather more couthy Cockburns stirred into the mix too) and married to a Scot while we have a Scottish marriage cert.

There may be times coming when this could be useful!

[alithea]

For the last Indy Ref the white paper basically featured an open immigration policy and anyone resident or born here automatically qualifying for citizenship, so you'd probably be fine regardless of where you married.

[cmcmck]

He's a son of the rock, so that should do! :o)

[danieldwilliam]

I expect that post-independence both the rUK and Scotland will try to take an inclusive approach to citizenship. Similar to the way UK and Irish citizenship worked after the Republic of Ireland was established.

[alithea]

Yes, I very much agree on all fronts.

I am not the biggest fan of the SNP as a party, there are too many folks on the right wing and they are too fond of centralising things. I am however, a big fan of Nicola. I really hope she gets to pull things off this parliament without too much interference from the party's right wing. Fortunately, working with the Greens should help that, which is why I'm not sorry they didn't quite get their majority, even though it gives that idiot Douglas Ross an excuse to try and make out they don't have a mandate for Indy Ref 2 as if the Greens don't exist.

[danieldwilliam]

I am torn about the majority. On the one hand the SNP having a majority does stop Douglas Ross being as obtuse as he wants to be.

On the other, as an SGP member and a democrat I'm fine with the SNP needing support from other parties to pass legislation.

From an indy point of view it would be no bad thing if the next budget passed with Labour getting something in return for their support and not the SGP.

[danieldwilliam]

Aye the SNP are too fond of centralising things for my liking. To be honest I fear that the SGP are a little too fond of telling other people what to think - and I say that as a member - for me to be entirely comfortable with an SNP and SGP combo. Somebody ought to be making the point that perhaps having the central government involved in every decision should not be the default way of running a liberal social democracy.

[alithea]

Technically SGP are supposed to be all in favour of decentralisation but I think that rather slips at the moment, not least because councils are such a hotbed of local cronyism, but also because many of our middle class members are much happier with issues campaigning and lecturing folks, than getting their hands dirty volunteering in the local communities that really need help.

[dewline]

If, say, Québec or Alberta were facing a similar situation WRT the rest of Canada right now, I could empathise with them. And maybe even argue for them openly. Similar to that facing Scotland re: the UK and EU right now, that is.

A further thought: It occurs to me that if you're legally able to vote in the elections and referendae of the country you're living in, despite your official citizenship of the moment, and are invited by the government of the country you're living in to actually do so...they've effectively given you citizenship there.

[alithea]

Yes re:citizenship, and that was the plan included in the last white paper for Indy. Of course the problem currently is that 'Scottish citizenship' doesn't entitle you to a whole bunch of UK administered things, like access to welfare benefits and the right to work.

[danieldwilliam]

On the citizenship point - yes I agree, if you're able to vote you are functionally a citizen.

I think the only citizenship right that, for example, the Syrian refugees don't have that but which I do is that they can kicked out and I can't be. So, if they turn out not to be legimate refugees or if the situation in Syria improves such that they can safely return they could be deported from Scotland - and then would lose other citizenship rights such as voting. Similarly, if someone is in Scotland on a work visa if they committ a crime they could be deported and would lose voting rights.

That's not a trivial difference (see Shamima Begum for examples of someone being stripped of their British citizenship.) but it's the only one I can think of.