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On Not Building Bridges to Belfast
Sep. 13th, 2019 03:38 pmI am not, in principle, opposed to a bridge from Scotland to Northern Ireland. I'm all about the gravity theory of trade and the role of infrastructure in growth theory. The closer places are to each the more they trade and the more more valuable the trade. A bridge across the Irish Sea would put Glasgow (pop 500k) about as far from Belfast (pop 300k) as it is from Newcastle and Aberdeen and about as far from Dublin (pop 500k) as it is from Manchester. The mid-point of the road or railway from Glasgow to Belfast would be about an hour from both cities. Stranraer would be closer to Belfast than Belfast is to Derry. That's not a bad thing.
You'd get a bunch of development along the line of the motorway / railway with people now able to commute in to Glasgow or Belfast.
Now, the idea is still bonkers. People are guessing at the budget because something like this has never been done. The problems are that it's bloody difficult and therefore expensive. It's a long bridge, over very deep water with frequent adverse weather and an inconvient weapons dump. Estimates are that it would cost £20bn to build. I'm inclined to round that up to £25 bn. Things people haven't added in to the costs include the roughly billion pounds you would need to spend clearing the unexploded ordinance plus the £50m a year keeping it clear. A £25 bn price tag would split, on a per capita basis £20bn to Scotland and £5bn to Northern Ireland. I can definately think of £20bn worth of infrastructure I'd build in Scotland before I went near a potentially impossible bridge. And so could my pals on Facebook.
Here are our collective suggestions of things we should do before we buy a bridge to Belfast
Triple laning the M74 - the road from Glasgow to Manchester - becomes the M6, opens up south-west Scotland to Glasgow, or vice versa.
Dual laning the A9 to Inverness. Inverness is one of the fastest growing cities in Scotland. The A9 is lethal. Connecting Inverness better to the Central Belt would spread some of the wealth about a bit.
In addition to the dualing of the A9 to Inverness, the A1 to Newcastle and other routes north and west £1bn.
A new motorway to Newcastle along the route of the A68 through Jedburgh - bring the Borders to Edinburgh.
Electric car capability for rural Scotland. Scotland is a country in two parts. The cities by the coast and the south where 4m people live and the really crinkly bits in the north west where nobody lives. If we're going to have electric cars and live up to our promise to be a Scandinavian social democracy we're going to have to make electric cars work in the rural parts of Scotland.
All Scotland, integrated, all company, all mode tap and go travel card. Travelling by public transport in Scotland would be easier if the payment were integrated. If we are aiming for Edinburgh, Glasgow and the Central Belt to become MegaCity Jock we're going to want a Transport for the Belt system and the starting point for that has to include integrated ticketing.
Segregated cycle ways on all major roads in Scotland - greener and healthier.
R&D for swappable battery packs for buses - an important step in keeping bus fleets operational and reducing down time for charging.
Ultrafast broadband - removing the need for travel at all. Might allow the shifting of some jobs from the cities to towns in the Highlands.
High Speed Rail connecting Northern England to Glasgow and Edinburgh - gravity theory of trade wins over the gravity theory of trade
Ride sharing software to facilitate smart ride sharing in rural Scotland between all users and providers, including taxi, bus, post office, NHS, volunteers etc. Lots of different organisations move things and people around rural Scoltand. Giving them some ability to connect and self-serve ride sharing might improve the connectivity and cost of rural travel.
Glasgow Subway extension. Third oldest subway, only subway not to have been extended in its life.
Complete electrification of Scotland's railways - £2bn - most electrification projects have Net Present Value positive already because electric trains are cheaper to run than diesel. This just accelerates the cheapness.
Extension and dualing of the Waverley Border's line to Carslisle plus three additional railway re-openings £2bn. Not sure which three I'd pick and you might get more than 3 if they are short spurs. There are plenty of lines closed during the Beaching period and a few obvious new connections that could be made. I'd have a personal preference for the Reston - Duns - Galashiels Borders route. I own a house near Reston.
Edinburgh Trams route 2, 3 and 4 £3bn - routes further west past the airport towards Livingstone, a route south east from Waverley past the University towards Kings campus and Fort Kinnaird, a route from Haymarket to Queensferry or a route via Portobello to Fort Kinnaird.
Glasgow Air Rail LInk & Edinburgh Air Rail Link £2bn. GARL was traded for the trams I think and EARL as currently done just doesn't work. Unless you can get off your train and get on your plane you don't have a rail-airlink.
HS line between west of Glasgow and east of Edinburgh £5bn - Glasgow to Edinburgh in 20 minutes and the dawn of MegaCity Jock
Any other suggestions?
You'd get a bunch of development along the line of the motorway / railway with people now able to commute in to Glasgow or Belfast.
Now, the idea is still bonkers. People are guessing at the budget because something like this has never been done. The problems are that it's bloody difficult and therefore expensive. It's a long bridge, over very deep water with frequent adverse weather and an inconvient weapons dump. Estimates are that it would cost £20bn to build. I'm inclined to round that up to £25 bn. Things people haven't added in to the costs include the roughly billion pounds you would need to spend clearing the unexploded ordinance plus the £50m a year keeping it clear. A £25 bn price tag would split, on a per capita basis £20bn to Scotland and £5bn to Northern Ireland. I can definately think of £20bn worth of infrastructure I'd build in Scotland before I went near a potentially impossible bridge. And so could my pals on Facebook.
Here are our collective suggestions of things we should do before we buy a bridge to Belfast
Triple laning the M74 - the road from Glasgow to Manchester - becomes the M6, opens up south-west Scotland to Glasgow, or vice versa.
Dual laning the A9 to Inverness. Inverness is one of the fastest growing cities in Scotland. The A9 is lethal. Connecting Inverness better to the Central Belt would spread some of the wealth about a bit.
In addition to the dualing of the A9 to Inverness, the A1 to Newcastle and other routes north and west £1bn.
A new motorway to Newcastle along the route of the A68 through Jedburgh - bring the Borders to Edinburgh.
Electric car capability for rural Scotland. Scotland is a country in two parts. The cities by the coast and the south where 4m people live and the really crinkly bits in the north west where nobody lives. If we're going to have electric cars and live up to our promise to be a Scandinavian social democracy we're going to have to make electric cars work in the rural parts of Scotland.
All Scotland, integrated, all company, all mode tap and go travel card. Travelling by public transport in Scotland would be easier if the payment were integrated. If we are aiming for Edinburgh, Glasgow and the Central Belt to become MegaCity Jock we're going to want a Transport for the Belt system and the starting point for that has to include integrated ticketing.
Segregated cycle ways on all major roads in Scotland - greener and healthier.
R&D for swappable battery packs for buses - an important step in keeping bus fleets operational and reducing down time for charging.
Ultrafast broadband - removing the need for travel at all. Might allow the shifting of some jobs from the cities to towns in the Highlands.
High Speed Rail connecting Northern England to Glasgow and Edinburgh - gravity theory of trade wins over the gravity theory of trade
Ride sharing software to facilitate smart ride sharing in rural Scotland between all users and providers, including taxi, bus, post office, NHS, volunteers etc. Lots of different organisations move things and people around rural Scoltand. Giving them some ability to connect and self-serve ride sharing might improve the connectivity and cost of rural travel.
Glasgow Subway extension. Third oldest subway, only subway not to have been extended in its life.
Complete electrification of Scotland's railways - £2bn - most electrification projects have Net Present Value positive already because electric trains are cheaper to run than diesel. This just accelerates the cheapness.
Extension and dualing of the Waverley Border's line to Carslisle plus three additional railway re-openings £2bn. Not sure which three I'd pick and you might get more than 3 if they are short spurs. There are plenty of lines closed during the Beaching period and a few obvious new connections that could be made. I'd have a personal preference for the Reston - Duns - Galashiels Borders route. I own a house near Reston.
Edinburgh Trams route 2, 3 and 4 £3bn - routes further west past the airport towards Livingstone, a route south east from Waverley past the University towards Kings campus and Fort Kinnaird, a route from Haymarket to Queensferry or a route via Portobello to Fort Kinnaird.
Glasgow Air Rail LInk & Edinburgh Air Rail Link £2bn. GARL was traded for the trams I think and EARL as currently done just doesn't work. Unless you can get off your train and get on your plane you don't have a rail-airlink.
HS line between west of Glasgow and east of Edinburgh £5bn - Glasgow to Edinburgh in 20 minutes and the dawn of MegaCity Jock
Any other suggestions?
