On Short Predictions of the Future of Brexit.

I'm attempting to summarise what I think happens next with Brexit and the Tory Party. Showing my workings. I'm not strongly wedded to this, happy to engage in reasoned conversation.

In summary,

1) On balance,  I think Brexit will not happen. Sort of 55% change of it not happening.

2) I think the next Tory PM and the one after that will both be minced by the process, regardless of the outcome.

The only thing there is a majority for in the House of Commons is no Hard Brexit. The House has taken control of its business in order to prevent that. Attempts by the Government to do an end run around the constitutional priviliges of the House of Commons are likely to a) spark extra-ordinary constitutional measures like a Vote of No Confidence b) make Remainers and Constitutionalists dig in and decide to go for hard remain.

So I think no No Deal Brexit.  This implies one of a) a further extension in October b) revoking Article 50 in October, c) some sort of deal in October.

I don't think the EU will change any aspect of the current deal unless the UK changes its redlines. Those redlines include the Free Movement of People. I can't see the Tory Party moving on that. The House of Commons might accept the current deal but I don't think it will. The Lib Dems and the SNP will have concluded from the Euro elections that they will do better in their target seats the more Remainerer they are. The Labour Party is probably about to shift towards a more People's Vote / Remainery position.

So I think it is unlikely that there will be a deal without an attached confirmatory referendum.  I think Remain will win a confirmatory referendum. (Unless the deal is so altered as to be membership of the Single Market without the political membership of the EU institutions. That might just be enough of a compromise to win.)

A confirmatory referendum will probably require an extension from October of about 7 months. Which takes us to May 2020.

It's possible that Parliament might be pushed in to a position where it has a last minute choice between Hard Brexit and Revoke. I don't think it will come to that. If it does I think Parliament will vote to Revoke and if necessary VONC the PM. The PM would probably have to go anyway under those circumstances.

I don't think the next Tory Prime Minister will like this.

The next Tory PM (probably not Boris Johnson, probably Raab) will probably win the position by talking up their Brexitiness. Whilst there looks to be a small but significant move from Leave to Remain and that move seems to be continuing and it showed up in the Euro election results a) the focus of the Brexit Party vote translates in to headline grabbing seat wins and b) most of the Tory Party think they are fishing in the same waters as the Brexit Party. (I think they are missing a generational opportunity to connect with younger middle-class voters who are economically centre-right. If they are lucky they will have many opportunities to rue this in the middle of the 21st Century.)

I *think* that at some point the next Tory PM is going to try and a) renegotiate the Deal - and fail, b) try to ram the deal through the House - and fail, c) try to leave without a deal - and fail and end up looking like May but with less time to play with.  I don't think they can risk going to the country at the current moment and also the Fixed Term Parliament Act VONC proceedure means that in between the VONC and dissolution AN Other probably gets a chance to form a government. This is more likely if they can assure the Queen that they can command a majority in the House.

Having failed to renegotiate, ram through or leave without the deal the next Tory PM will probably have to go back to the EU and ask for an extension (or be forced to by the House of Commons). My guess is that the EU will insist on second referendum.

So the Tories will probably dump their next PM sometime after that individual is blamed for the extension / People's Vote.

Their next PM will either try the May / Raab route for a third time and be minced or they will "surrender" to the EU and be minced.

At this point we are about due a General Election.

Alternatively, either the next Tory PM or the one after will succed in leaving without a deal and the several tens of thousands of deaths, the food riots and economic shock leading to Daily Mail readers suffering lower house prices and also cancer will mince that PM.

Or the next PM will have to fess up about how difficult Brexit is and then be minced by the Brexity wing of their own party.

It's mince all the way down.

And probably further delays to Brexit, probably a second referendum and probably no actual Brexit.

Meanwhile, the SNP will effectively launch the second Scottish Indepedence referendum campaign the week after next with the introduction of enabling legislation for that referendum. Which should land on the UK PM's desk for the veto just about the time the next Tory PM arrives so that half of Scotland starts by hating them as an enemy of the (Scottish) People.

Other side predictions

Change UK to merge with the Lib Dems by Christmas.

Corbyn to become the most unpopular and most poorly rated leader of the Opposition ever (again / still) by Christmas.

Westminister voting intentions for Labour / Tories combined to fall below 50% by Christmas.

The Electoral  Commission to have investigated the Brexit Party's Euro election conduct by Christmas.