On Prospects for the Next Five Years

Well, that was an unexpected election result. In lots of ways.

I had been hoping for a minority Labour government requiring support from Lib Dems and the SNP.

I'd been expecting a Conservative minority government.

I was, I suppose expecting the opinion polls to be predictive.

It's a disappointing result too. A Tory government is not something to wish on one's friends. I was also hoping that a government with legitimacy issues and dependent on others to support it would be open to some significant constitutional reforms. Those look unlikely from a majority Tory government.

So what comes next?

Well several more years of a reduction in public spending. If the public sector wants to protect the services it provides it will have to embrace technology and find ways to reduce the cost of provision and overhead significantly.

The economy will continue to grow quite sharply for another 18 months to two years. Then I think our structural problems of lack of productively growth, weak infrastructure and shortage of profitable investment opportunities kick in and growth is slower. Growth will be further depressed with the uncertainty brought about by an EU referendum. With a Tory government more of the proceeds of that growth go to Capital. So folk can expect to not feel much better off I expect.

Constitutionally, we might well see English Votes for English Laws. I don't have a problem with the principle but I think the practise will be fraught with unworkable problems. Otherwise, not a lot, not a lot. Oh, Boundary Reviews, reducing the number of seats to 600 and making the seats probably a little easier for the Tories to win.

The SNP will win handsomely in 2016.

I expect Europe will become the Big Issue and if the Tory party remains as split about Europe in 2015 as they were in 1992 that will be interesting.

A few Tories will die. The government will see its majority slowly decrease but not die - literally barring accidents of the multiple car pile up on the road to Conference variety. All the talk of Europe will keep UKIP in the public's eye - with their 3.9 million vote and 1 seat. (More than twice the votes of the SNP for 1/50th the seats). Things could get tasty if the Tory party really go mad over Europe. I don't know that they will. If the Tories have one quality it is successfully holding on to power. I would not be surprised by a Tory party split over Europe, before, during or after the EU referendum.

I've no idea about the EU referendum. I think Cameron wants to avoid it. I'm not sure how he can withuot splitting the Tory party from right under himself. I'd say that the massive funding and roll call of big and small business supporting a Yes to the EU vote would guaranttee a win for the EU but the British public seem in a perverse mood at the moment.

(If I were Cameron I'd do two things I'd offer the SNP Full Fiscal Autonomy and a binding 4 Nations Concurrence on EU withdrawal. This would keep the SNP quiet and ensure that Cameron could hold and win the EU referendum without it being his fault.)

If the UK leaves the EU Scotland will leave the UK.

I'm not sure where either the Labour or Liberal Democrat parties go from where they are. I expect the Labour Party will have cause to regret not ensuring electoral reform, House of Lords reform and regional devolution. I expect they won't realise they are the authors of their own downfall.

Other than that my taxes will go down a little, my children's schools get a little worse and I'll hope I don't get seriously ill for ten years.

On Remaining A Member of the Scottish Opposition

With the referendum over, for now, the UK general election with it's siren call of tactical voting over, the prospects for immediate constitutional reform reduced it is probably time for me to lift my head a little and look towards the upcoming Scottish general election in a year's time.

And that means remembering that I am a member of an opposition party in Scotland. That no matter how much I admire Nicola Sturgeon and no matter that I share common ground with the SNP I must remember that there is a much I don't support about the SNP government.

I have some concerns about their narrative. The problems in Scotland are not all the result of Westminster, Margaret Thatcher, Red Tories or They English. Some of them are of our own making. Some of them are of our own choosing. The SNP are the government of Scotland and have been since 2007.

What have they done to advance our society, our state and our polity? What have they failed to do? Those are the questions that the Scottish opposition should put to them. The point is not to deplore their aspiration for autonomy or the route they propose towards a progressive political settlement in Scotland. It is certainly not to buy in to the story that they can do nothing in the face of Tory cuts and the Westminter system. Independence is not the only important question. Over the next five years it is probably not a very important question
The point is to ask them if they have used the powers they have fully, wisely and cleverly to do the best they can.

Is the centralisation of public services like Police Scotland efficent or effective or democratic? Why is a Glasgow model of the suppression of prostitution being forced without consultation on a more tolerant Edinburgh, where I live? Why are they trying to arm the police?

Is the policy of free tuition fees really the most effective or progressive way to ensure we have well educated citizens with fair access to the benefits of a good education? What about early years provision for poor kids so they can grow up to get the grades to make university an option for them?

How are we going to integrate large numbers of renewables on to the Scottish grid? What can we do to make energy in Scotland cheaper and a source of exports and jobs? Shoud we really be excluding nuclear energy?

What about internal devolution and the powers of local councils? How can we make Scotland a more participative and deliberative and pluralistic democracy?

Are we comfortable with the relationship the SNP has with rich foreign businessmen like Rupert Murdoch and Donald Trump? Or our own rich businessmen?

Lots of questions to put to the SNP about their record and their choices and their priorities and their plans. The SNP are in government in my country and I am a member of an opposition party.