On Cameron's EU Speech

I think Cameron has made a pretty big error with his EU speech.

I think that the British people are broadly with him that the EU could do with some reforms but I don’t think the EU, the British constitutional position with the EU and the way the institutions of the EU work or don’t work ranks very highly on the list of the average citizen’s concerns.  There are lots of thing that the EU touches on that British people are concerned about. The economy, immigration, employment but the issue of the EU ranks pretty low down. It’s not even a top five issue with UKIP voters.

So I think Cameron’s position of an attempt to renegotiate some bits our relationship with the EU, in a few years time, followed by a in or out referendum doesn’t really address a big issue for people but it does open the door to some difficult times.

It lets the Conservative Party and UKIP bang on about Europe ad infinitum ad nauseum.  People don’t much like the Conservative Party talking about Europe because people don’t much care about Europe. They want they candidates for government talking about the economy, immigration, law and order, the NHS and the, um, economy.  The recent IMF view that the UK will be lucky to see growth of 1% this year just puts the economy in the front of everyone’s mind. Everyone, it appears, apart from the Conservative Party. In the run up to a general election which I think is going to be largely about the economy, and largely about an ideological difference between the Austrian School and Kenysianism the Conservative Party gets to bang on about Europe.

I’m not sure that this offer draws the fangs of UKIP. Partly, this is because, actually, most UKIP voters aren’t that fussed about Europe. They are probably more unitied around their party position then supporters of other parties (except the Lib Dems.) Partly this is because, I think, many of the Conservative voters who do care enough about the EU to make it a big issue for them tend to agree with UKIP.  Allowing an EU referendum to hang in the air for four years allows UKIP, who are often seen as a single issue party, to gain access to the airwaves and ears of Britain. This actually makes them look more credible.

Once the Labour Party have worked out their policy on Europe they have good options. I suspect their policy will be “We’re a bit sceptical of Europe too, it needs a bit of a reform, best to do this from the inside, but we are pro-Europe because, you know, the economy. If Cameron wants a referendum bring it on, we’ll happily make the case for staying.” Shades of Oliver Letwin. Once settled on this policy they get to beat up the Conservatives about their obsession with Europe.  Every Labour spokesperson gets to open every speech or sound bit “I’m here to talk about (the economy, law and order, pensions, jobs, immigration ) and the Tories are just here to talk about Europe.”  All the better if there is a UKIPer there who actually wants to argue about the EU with the Tory.

I can’t see the Lib Dems being too delighted with years of Euro-sceptic rhetoric and as the government is dependent on them for votes. The Lib Dems are pretty keen on Europe.

So I think in terms of messages to win votes this is not a smart move by Cameron as it shifts his message to something that doesn’t much matter to folk, allows more airplay to UKIP and gives the Labour Party a nice stick to either hit him with or stir up rebellion in either Tory ranks or Lib Dem ranks.

(As an aside I think it damages the No / Better Together campaign in the Scottish Indepedence debate. It’s not that I think Scots are significantly more Europhile than the rest of the UK.  I think we’re a bit more realistic about the value to our industries of being in the single market and more tolerant of the social elements of the Single Market.  What it takes away from the No campaign is the ability to say, Vote No for Certainty.  The No Campaign can’t guarantee that Scotland will remain in the EU after either a Yes or a No vote.)

In practial terms I think the uncertainty will be damaging for businesses in  Britain. Again, it the economy.  For those businesses where the Single Market is important the uncertainty will delay investment or shift investment to other parts of Europe. I don’t think this is going to be a huge impact but we have an economy which is stuggling to register any growth whatsoever. We don’t need four years of uncertainty, four years of Nissan saying, “We love to invest more in Sunderland, and we might once you decide what you’re doing in Europe.”

This again is a nice stick for the Labour Party to hit the Conservatives with – whilst the Tories are imploding over Europe, British workers are being laid off. Every time any business closes I would expect a Labour spokesman to say “This might not have happened if we weren’t faffing with a referendum in X years.”

I also don’t think we are going to be able renegotiate much.

So all in all I think this is a mistake by Cameron. At least it makes him vulnerable on several flanks.