Aug. 28th, 2012

danieldwilliam: (Default)

In converation with Andrew Ducker I wondered aloud how long the effects of climate change would continue for after we stopped emitting carbon dioxide.

 

The best guess seems to be 1,000 years. Some modelling done by the Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis suggests that even if we stopped emitting CO2 into the atmosphere we would still be experiencing the impact a millenium from now.

 

This appears to be due to the persistence of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere in the atmosphere. We can expect elevated levels of greenhouse gases for hundreds of years after we stop emitting them. Along side the continued warming effect of greenhouse gases it takes a long time for the additional heat trapped on the surface of the planet to make its way into the various climate systems. The key system for the long tail of climate change seems to be the deeper levels of the southern oceans. Additional heat moves slowly into these systems until it ends up next to the Antartic ice-sheets. These in turn eventually melt leading to an increase in sea-levels of 4 meters.

 

If we stopped emitting CO2 in 2100 the model predicts some 55% of excess carbon emitted during the industrial period would still be in the atmosphere in the year 3000. The changes in climate as a result of the two effects of accumulated climate change persisting into the future and the unwinding of climate change as the distribution of CO2 changes seem to drive significant regional variation with the southern hemisphere seeing increases in tempreture after 2100 and the nothern hemisphere seeing tempretures fall back after 2100.

 

Two big worries flagged up by the model are continuing warming of Antartic seas and the consequent loss of ice from Antartica and a drying effect on northern Africa.

 

The modelling goes out for thousand years and doesn’t appear to show the effects peaking and then reversing over the model’s period.  They are still accumulating a thousand years from now.

 

As a caveat, this is one study. The climate is probably the very definition of a non-linear chaotic system and I think climate change modelling is highly dependent on all sorts of best estimates about things we don’t really understand at all well.  But it’s the best we have.

 

I have to say I’m surprised and dismayed. I’d thought that we would start to see a reversal of climate change within a hundred years or so of us reducing carbon emissions below their aborbsion rates.

 

My source for this is here

 

http://sos.noaa.gov/Docs/ngeo1047-aop.pdf

danieldwilliam: (Default)

I am justly famed for both my modesty and my abilty to make gin and tonics. I learnt my art as young man in the Melbourne parlour of Grandfather. I’ve honed my craft for decades, by land and by sea.  When my favorite gin and tonic customer decided she no longer drank alcohol I was plunged into despair. It took me months to recover my equilibrium. Who was going to appreciate my skills with the puddling spoon and my instinctive grasp of how the ice will crack? What drink will I offer by way of a warm welcome to the weary traveller.

Traveller, well meet, I offer you the Elston.

An Elston is an non-alcholic cocktail, made from Elderflower, Lime and Sparkling Tonic.

You will need

A bottle of Elderflower Cordial. (Don’t stint on the quality of this.) The more viscous the better for the cordial.

A bottle of sparkling tonic water. You can use slim-line or full fat as your conscience dictates.

Ice, ice cubes, of a medium size. Plenty of these. Dozens, not two or three.

Limes, one per glass if you are making a few. Two per glass if you are making lots.

A glass, specifically a tall tumbler. I like to use a tumbler with a curved body and a heavy base.

A sharp knife. This is mainly for self-defence whilst you are mixing the drink. People can be so rude and a good cocktail takes time to mix.

A swizzle stick. Or sticks – one for each glass. Dealer’s choice on this one. I have some nice glass ones. The key factor here is that the stick should sit properly proud of the edge of the glass so no-one has to dip their fingers in their drink.

A spoon. You can use a bar spoon if you like but an ordinary desert spoon works just as well. The key thing is that it has a long handle.

Method

If you can, chill the glasses ahead of time in the freezer. All the other ingredients are also best used chilled. Especially the Ice. For tonic based drinks I like them cold. I find the physical sensation of the icy chill complements the sharp cutting bitterness of the tonic. Essentially, you are trying to make a Dorothy Parker epigram in a glass.

Take the Glass. It’s going to be about 6 inches tall, unless you’ve really chilled it. Place it open end up on a flat, steady surface at a comfortable working height. The Glass will get cold; I recommend not relying on your hands to hold it.

Take the Lime. Place it, green side down, on a flat firm surface.  I usually use the work surface of the kitchen but you can use someone’s abdomanal muscles if they are blessed with an Adonis like physique. Pressing down on the lime with your hand firmly, roll the lime back and forth on the surface a few times. This breaks down the internal barriers in the Lime and encourages them to be release more juice. You could try reading to the Lime from 50 Shades of Grey for the same effect, but not all Limes are in to that.

With the Sharp Knife carefull cut the Lime. I tend to cut my Lime into slices as thick as my small finger and then cut those slices into thirds. I usually add two slices of Lime to each Glass. If I’m feeling devilish, or my guests look very much in need of a little Zing in their life I’ll give the ends of the Lime a squeeze over the Glass. Not too much of squeeze or you get the bitter extractions of the pith and the odd pip.

Add Ice. Keep adding it until about one third of the glass is full of ice. If you’ve used fewer than a dozen small ice cubes you’ve probably used too few.

Slowly pour Elderflower Cordial over the ice.  Keep pouring until the level of the Cordial reaches the top of the ice cubes. Take your time over this, it makes it look like you are really concentrating on your guests’ sensual experience. It also gives the cordial plenty of time to exchange heat with the ice.

Stir the Ice / Cordial / Lime mix vigorously with the swizzle stick. It helps to have prepared a small wittisism here.

Go and kiss your lover. This is not only a nice thing to do but will distract your audience whilst the cordial / ice mix reaches the right tempreture.

Stir the Ice / Cordial / Lime mix again. If you thought your wittisism of earlier on was really good you can try repeating again. I know I do.

Leave the Swizzle Stick in situ.

About now I like to bend down and get eyeball to ice cube with the work in progress. The Limes should be resting underneath the Ice cubes just in contact with the Cordial. Pay attention to the colour of the Cordial. Preserving that is a key part of the next stage.

Stand up again.

Take the Spoon. Put it into the glass so that the dish of the spoon is facing upwards and the spoon is as close to the horizontal as you can get and as close to the Ice / Lime / Cordial mix as you can get...  Slowly… pour the Tonic Water into the Glass so that it lands on the dish of the spoon. The idea is to deflect the Tonic sideways so that it hits the side of the glass first and then runs onto the Ice rather than hitting the Ice straight on and disturbing the layer of cold Elderflower Cordial.

(I can’t write down instructions for this. This is something you only learn by watching and then doing. Like spin bowling. The secret is all in the flight.)

Try that wittisism again. The chances are your guests missed it the first two times because they were mesmerised by your delft bar tending.

Fill the glass all the way up to the top. Slowly. Very slowly.

That’s too fast! Slow down.

Fill the Glass all the way up to the top. If you’ve poured the Tonic slowly enough you should have a layer of very, very cold, dense, viscous, still Elderflower with a layer of slightly less cold, less dense, less viscous, sparkling Tonic and Lime with some Ice at the top of the Glass.

What we’re looking for here, other than the Meaning of Life, is Viscometric Swirls. These are the swirling patterns you get when you mix cask strength, unchill filtered whisky with a small amount fo water as the denser, more viscous fluid mixes with the lighter ends of the water. They should peel off the Cordial into the Tonic like my Grandfather’s Spitfire peeling off his squadron to chase a Dornier. Mention the Search for Viscometric Swirls to your Guests as you hand them their drinks. The key to a good trick is to make your audience look where you want them to look.

The layering is important. It gives the individual drinker a choice. They can enjoy the drink as it arrived, cool sharp tonic gradually giving way to the sweet, unctious flow of the Cordial. They can mix the drink and confuse Tonic and Cordial into a jamboree of conflicting harmony.

Propose a toast.  Sip slowly.

That mix of bitter-sweet coldness. I call that sobriety.

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