Do It, Don't Revel In It.

I hope I’m not alone in finding the death of Gadaffi distasteful.

I hope I’m not alone in finding the death of Gadaffi another precident in an unwholesome change in our views on the rule of law.

I think due process of law and the presumption of innocence taken together are two of the most important political innovations in Western society and two of the most important rights we have. Combined, they mean that if the state can not persuade a disinterested person that you have done a bad thing the state (or its officials) can not deprive you of your life, or your liberty or wound you in your body. From this stable platform of being able to go about your business free from arbitrary vexation by the state or persecution flow all our civil liberties and all the material and political benefits that come from living in a free society.

If the Rule of Law does not apply to everyone than it applies to no one. If one person can be outlawed, then anyone can be outlawed.

When sanctioning the death of outlaws or approving of the killing of outlaws by others I hope our leaders would remember John Rawls’ veil of uncertainty and the maxim that one man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter. If it is okay for our leadership to kill without trial or approve of the killing without trial of their leadship how are we to distinguish terrorism from police action? What makes the IRA attack on Downing Street morally different from the killing of Osama Bin Laden?

I’m concerned that it seems to be okay for extra judicial killings to happen to Arab men who dislike the West. I fear that it will encourage Arab men who dislike the West to continue to think that it is okay to kill Westerners. I fear that the class of people whom it is acceptable to kill without due process may be widened to include African men who dislike the West, Western men who dislike the West, women and children who just happen to be standing near men who fall into the category of outlaw, Western women who have breached planning conditions on their own property and then atheists, Jews, Non-Conformists, Dissenters and supporters of Manchester United.

I think when the Americans insisted that we have proper trials for alleged Nazi war criminals and that we didn’t just string them up from the nearest lamppost that was the right thing to do. I don’t think justice tempered by angry vengance is an appropriate model for us to endorse.

Not just because the rule of law is a good thing but because important practical liberties and material benefits flow from the rule of law. You can not have the benefits of a free and democratic society if you remove one of the foundations of that society.

I don’t want it to be okay to kill without trial Gadaffi or Bin Laden because I don’t want it to be okay for someone to do that to Obama or Cameron, or me. I don’t want to live in a world where just killing people is okay for either side.

Inflation and other First World Problems

Gosh, isn’t inflation high. Latest reports put the Retail Price Index at 5.6% and the Consumer Price Index at 5.25.

This compares with the Bank of England’s target of 2%. Not 2% over the medium term, or 2% when we feel like it but 2%.

We’ve had inflation above the Bank’s target since November 2009, getting on for two years. Inflation has been romping along at pretty much twice the target rate since then. We have about 3.5% more cummulative inflation than we should have done over the two year period. Looked at another way, we’ve had enough inflation to last us until May 2013 – a little under two years from now.

The Bank of England express the view that inflation will fall over the next 18 months. They are deliciously vague on when or how much this might be. They are, in any event, usually wrong.

The markets seem to support the view that inflation will fall – on average. However, inflation isn’t going to fall to zero (unless). Average predictions for inflation in 2012 are 2.5%. Still 0.5% above target or 25% more than it should be.

I’m a little less sanguine about inflation than the markets but they probably know better than I do.

At that 2.5% rate cummulative inflation would still be about 5% above what it ought to have been. The lowest annual CPI inflation has been is 1.8%. Taking that slightly below target inflation figure and projecting it into the future cummulative inflation doesn’t return to its target until 2035.

Figures schmigures. What I’m taking from this is that even if high inflation doesn’t become persistent we’ve still got a significant chunk of historic inflation that isn’t going to go away…unless.

Inflation is broadly a transfer of wealth from those who hold money to those who owe money (so long as those who owe money are able to increase their incomes in line with inflation).

With this in mind some of the commentary that suggests that the UK government is quite happy with moderately high inflation might not be too wide of the mark. I’ve read articles that suggest that the UK Treasury and the Bank of England have secretly and tacitly changed the inflation target from 2% to an assumed 5-7%.

It’s worth noting that had we been using the using the CPI to adjust our Gross Domestic Figures instead of the governement’s own measure of inflation for the government the GDP Deflator we would be in a recession right now and that inflation is still twice its target.

What’s the unless? Appalling, abysmal, catastrophic European or global economic failure should destroy enough demand for inflation to be significantly below target enough for us to catch up with our own goal of keeping inflation in hand. Pick your poison. Unless you are able to negotiate better wages you can expect to see you’re standard of living fall either a little broadly spready across the population or a lot but more randomly distributed.

I’m wondering if the government’s Plan B is to inflate away our national debt at the expense of our pensions, savings and standards of living.