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danieldwilliamI'm attempting to summarise what I think happens next with Brexit and the Tory Party. Showing my workings. I'm not strongly wedded to this, happy to engage in reasoned conversation.
In summary,
1) On balance, I think Brexit will not happen. Sort of 55% change of it not happening.
2) I think the next Tory PM and the one after that will both be minced by the process, regardless of the outcome.
The only thing there is a majority for in the House of Commons is no Hard Brexit. The House has taken control of its business in order to prevent that. Attempts by the Government to do an end run around the constitutional priviliges of the House of Commons are likely to a) spark extra-ordinary constitutional measures like a Vote of No Confidence b) make Remainers and Constitutionalists dig in and decide to go for hard remain.
So I think no No Deal Brexit. This implies one of a) a further extension in October b) revoking Article 50 in October, c) some sort of deal in October.
I don't think the EU will change any aspect of the current deal unless the UK changes its redlines. Those redlines include the Free Movement of People. I can't see the Tory Party moving on that. The House of Commons might accept the current deal but I don't think it will. The Lib Dems and the SNP will have concluded from the Euro elections that they will do better in their target seats the more Remainerer they are. The Labour Party is probably about to shift towards a more People's Vote / Remainery position.
So I think it is unlikely that there will be a deal without an attached confirmatory referendum. I think Remain will win a confirmatory referendum. (Unless the deal is so altered as to be membership of the Single Market without the political membership of the EU institutions. That might just be enough of a compromise to win.)
A confirmatory referendum will probably require an extension from October of about 7 months. Which takes us to May 2020.
It's possible that Parliament might be pushed in to a position where it has a last minute choice between Hard Brexit and Revoke. I don't think it will come to that. If it does I think Parliament will vote to Revoke and if necessary VONC the PM. The PM would probably have to go anyway under those circumstances.
I don't think the next Tory Prime Minister will like this.
The next Tory PM (probably not Boris Johnson, probably Raab) will probably win the position by talking up their Brexitiness. Whilst there looks to be a small but significant move from Leave to Remain and that move seems to be continuing and it showed up in the Euro election results a) the focus of the Brexit Party vote translates in to headline grabbing seat wins and b) most of the Tory Party think they are fishing in the same waters as the Brexit Party. (I think they are missing a generational opportunity to connect with younger middle-class voters who are economically centre-right. If they are lucky they will have many opportunities to rue this in the middle of the 21st Century.)
I *think* that at some point the next Tory PM is going to try and a) renegotiate the Deal - and fail, b) try to ram the deal through the House - and fail, c) try to leave without a deal - and fail and end up looking like May but with less time to play with. I don't think they can risk going to the country at the current moment and also the Fixed Term Parliament Act VONC proceedure means that in between the VONC and dissolution AN Other probably gets a chance to form a government. This is more likely if they can assure the Queen that they can command a majority in the House.
Having failed to renegotiate, ram through or leave without the deal the next Tory PM will probably have to go back to the EU and ask for an extension (or be forced to by the House of Commons). My guess is that the EU will insist on second referendum.
So the Tories will probably dump their next PM sometime after that individual is blamed for the extension / People's Vote.
Their next PM will either try the May / Raab route for a third time and be minced or they will "surrender" to the EU and be minced.
At this point we are about due a General Election.
Alternatively, either the next Tory PM or the one after will succed in leaving without a deal and the several tens of thousands of deaths, the food riots and economic shock leading to Daily Mail readers suffering lower house prices and also cancer will mince that PM.
Or the next PM will have to fess up about how difficult Brexit is and then be minced by the Brexity wing of their own party.
It's mince all the way down.
And probably further delays to Brexit, probably a second referendum and probably no actual Brexit.
Meanwhile, the SNP will effectively launch the second Scottish Indepedence referendum campaign the week after next with the introduction of enabling legislation for that referendum. Which should land on the UK PM's desk for the veto just about the time the next Tory PM arrives so that half of Scotland starts by hating them as an enemy of the (Scottish) People.
Other side predictions
Change UK to merge with the Lib Dems by Christmas.
Corbyn to become the most unpopular and most poorly rated leader of the Opposition ever (again / still) by Christmas.
Westminister voting intentions for Labour / Tories combined to fall below 50% by Christmas.
The Electoral Commission to have investigated the Brexit Party's Euro election conduct by Christmas.
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Date: 2019-05-30 07:01 am (UTC)http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/05/30/boris-johnson-the-false-favourite-for-the-tory-leadership/
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Date: 2019-05-30 07:34 am (UTC)I am not sold on Boris at any cost, but I read this article as "Boris won't be it because I do not like him".
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Date: 2019-05-30 08:55 am (UTC)I guess we'll know nore once the first two rounds of voting have happened.
I'd be quite happy with Boris having a go. Certainly whilst he's being charged with a criminal offence which might lead to him losing his seat. Mind you I have no confidence that Corbyn would remember to mention that Boris was under criminal investigation during any immedaite election campaign. He's too busy cleansing the Party of Alistair Campbell.
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Date: 2019-05-30 08:58 am (UTC)All the other Republican Party candidates loathed Trump far more than any of the Westminster ones loathed Boris, but still insufficiently to make them unite behind an alternative.
(I'm slightly arguing for the sake of arguing here. If I had to call it, I'd call it for Boris, but there's still a lot to play out here. I do think the court case will disappear in a puff of smoke though.)
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Date: 2019-05-30 09:08 am (UTC)Tory Leader has to not lose about 8 rounds of elections with the electorate only being Tory MP's (including other challengers) before getting to an election of members. If Boris makes the final two he almost certainly wins.
We'll see about the prosecution. Obscure bits of English law are not my area of expertise but the timing is already poor for Boris. Avoided prosecution for a crime of dishonesty is not exactly a ringing endorsement for a potential PM.
You can get Boris at 2/1. I think I might be tempted by Hunt at 16/1.
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Date: 2019-05-30 09:12 am (UTC)I do think Hunt is a good candidate. He's got more confirmed nominations than anyone else so far. He's relatively popular in the party membership for someone who isn't Boris. I tend to think that the successful candidate will have to be someone who voted Leave, but if I'm wrong about that then it will be for Hunt.
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Date: 2019-05-30 09:18 am (UTC)That said, I don't wholly buy your argument here. Other nominees being willing more quickly to throw their weight behind one establishment candidate could, I think, have led to a very US different electoral dynamic. But I will admit that I do not know this landscape well enough for my view to have real authority.
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Date: 2019-05-30 09:44 am (UTC)But at the time they mostly thought that Trump was a joke, that he'd fail on his own and that there was no need for them, therefore, to sacrifice their ambition for the good of the Party or the Country.
I think the likes of Gove and Hunt are pretty clear eyed that Boris is the front runner and is dangeriously likely to win the leadership and then blow up the Tory Party.
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Date: 2019-05-30 09:50 am (UTC)I mostly agree with this. Two caveats: (i) I don't think that they regard Raab as any safer to the party than Johnson (he's madder, plus he can't compete with Farage), and (ii) I think they do recognise that there needs to be someone on the final two who is regarded as a serious leaver candidate (and will get e.g., the backing of the ERG). The ERG undoubtedly has the power to get a candidate into the final two; the only way this could be avoided is in essence for the rest of the party to act as one in dividing their votes 50-50 between e.g., Hunt and Gove so that each outnumbers the ERG candidate. That is not theoretically impossible but would be remarkably hard to achieve. So if what they really want is to stop Boris, they need to pick and throw their weight behind a serious leaver candidate. That's not Hunt because he voted Remain. It isn't now Gove because he's too sane, in words I never expected to write. It's not Raab because he doesn't save them from the bad stuff that Boris would bring, plus he brings a whole lot more of his own. Mordaunt?
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Date: 2019-05-30 11:15 am (UTC)I agree that some co-ordination / backflips and gymnastics of the the Not Boris wing of the Tory Party would have to be done to avoid him reaching the top two if the ERG were united behind him.
But Gove, Javid, Cleverely, Leadsom and Malthouse are ERG subscribers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Research_Group#Subscribers
They have more candidates standing than the Remain wing.
So it looks like their vote is split. There might even be a danger that the Not Boris group see that, combine their votes in the first round to put Boris bottom, he gets knocked out and then they can fight it out thereafter.
You are right about Raab. Boris is a narcisistic, vain, dishonest (even unto himself methinks), lazy and not as clever as he thinks he is or as he makes out. Raab is a true believer and Lord save and protect us all from them.
That we should live in the days when Michael Gove is reckoned too sane to be Prime Minister.
I am yet more tempted to lay the favourite. Mordaunt might be a good shout. Anyone accused by Kate Hoey of trivialising Parliament for saying cock gets my vote.
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Date: 2019-05-30 11:57 am (UTC)Gove isn't an ERG subscriber if he's painting himself as a unity candidate. He can have one or other of these but not both.
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Date: 2019-05-30 11:58 am (UTC)I mean, he might or might not be listed as a subscriber but he won't get their support.
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Date: 2019-05-30 12:23 pm (UTC)If you weren't putting money on Boris who would your second favourte be? And who is your long shot?
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Date: 2019-05-30 12:33 pm (UTC)It's a tough one. Of the current pool, the only ones I can imagine the ERG backing are Raab or Leadsom. There's so much hostility to Raab outside the ERG that I think they'd prefer another candidate. (They'll tolerate that for Boris given what they regard as being his assets but Raab doesn't have those.) Leadsom is a true believer and has Cabinet experience. I think they'd support Mordaunt in principle but she hasn't declared. I don't think Malthouse or Cleverly are big enough hitters and I don't think McVey would be regarded as able to command. My suspicion is that they'd put forward their own candidate if Boris dropped out - probably Baker but possibly JRM.
My long shot is Rory Stewart because he's getting an insane amount of publicity.
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Date: 2019-05-30 12:49 pm (UTC)Neither Raab nor Leadsom fills me with much enthusiasm (other than the fact that my working assumption is that the next PM is out of office within about 9 months.)
Leadsom in particular aspires to dull but worthy. And in any properly run country resigning because you couldn't support the trade agreement you literally just negotiated would bar you from being vice-captain of your local pub darts team let alone Prime Minister.
I think Mordaunt has looked at the future and decided her best option is to wait out the current season of the Brexit Clown Town show and rebuild from opposition. (Or someone has photographs of her snorting cocaine off Brendan Coles arse - always worth bearing in mind that people who ought to run might have something else going on. See also Jo Swinson and Chucka Ummuna.)
Rory Stewart is my long shot too.
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Date: 2019-05-30 12:52 pm (UTC)I think Jo Swinson is going to run for LD leader, isn't she?
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Date: 2019-05-30 01:01 pm (UTC)I think she has declared.
Last time around she was talked about but didn't run. She was either pregnant or had recently given birth so Cable kept her seat warm for her.
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Date: 2019-05-30 01:04 pm (UTC)Yes, that's what I thought. I'm expecting her to be (1) elected and (2) good.
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Date: 2019-05-30 01:20 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2019-05-30 12:54 pm (UTC)Unrelatedly I finally wrote your five questions but now cannot find the original conversation.