danieldwilliam: (machievelli)
[personal profile] danieldwilliam
Things I'm watching to see if Brexit is as bad economically as I think it's going to be.

1) FX rates, particularly the GBP:USD rate and the difference in movement between GBP:EUR and GBP:USD. Brexit will be uncertain for the UK and probably very bad, pushing down on the GBP. If people start to think it will drag the rest of the EU down with it then the USD will strengthen and the Euro won't
2) Petrol prices - the first time voters will feel Brexit in the their pocket will be next week when petrol prices go up and the weak pound makes dollar denominated oil more expensive.
3) Inflation figures in the quarter July-Sept. Again, driven by the weak pound I'd expect inflation to start nosing up a little
4) Job creation figures for the same quarter - if they are flat we are probably heading for a recession.
5) Quantative easing of some sort by the Bank of England - I believe the stock phrase is "organised support". Volumes, timings, and take up
6) Balance of payments - we already have a balance of payments problem, weak exports compensated for by inward investment. Will the investment keep coming?
7) Our credit rating with the other ratings agency - have the priced in all the bad news already?

Politically I'm watching for some pressure to be put on us. Possibly by ourselves. Not words but actual events.
1) The Calais frontier being moved back to England (watch for footage of drowned toddlers washed up on the beaches below the White Cliffs)
2) The Spanish government blockading Gibrator. (On some pretext. Looking for drugs or petrol smugglers.)
3) A pretty clear offer that Scotland can remain in the EU and therefore that if the UK leaves it will cease to be the UK
4) The Loyalist marching season in Northern Ireland getting out of hand.

What else should I be keeping an eye on.

Date: 2016-06-30 04:07 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] momentsmusicaux.livejournal.com
> 3) A pretty clear offer that Scotland can remain in the EU and therefore that if the UK leaves it will cease to be the UK

Spain's making a lot of noise about not allowing that though.

Date: 2016-06-30 04:15 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
Spain will always make a lot of noise about that. Certainly the political parties interested in not allowing Catalan indepedence will always make a lot of noise about it.

And it's true that Spain has a veto on any new member that wants to join.

That is not the same as Rajoy himself having a veto.

It is not the same as Rajoy *actually* using the veto.

It is not the same as Rajoy remaining Prime Minister.

It is not the same as Rajoy wanting to use the veto but being told by the other 26 members that he can use his veto if he likes but all the other things he wants this decade won't happen.

It is not the same as Catalonia rioting in order to preserve their own route to independence and him backing down.

It is not the same as having a veto if the "legal" ruling from the EU is that parts of member states that declare independence from a member state are automatically considered to have always been member states of the EU.

Spain might or might have a veto. They might or might not decide to use it. This might or might work out for them.

Date: 2016-07-02 06:43 pm (UTC)
From: [identity profile] alitheapipkin.livejournal.com
Number 4 on your politics list is going to happen, although how well it'll be covered over here we shall see - the Boy's parents say the mood over there is already ugly because the Orange Order campaigned for Brexit and apparently there was intimidation in some communities before the vote :(


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