On Election Analysis 2016 - Glasgow
May. 12th, 2016 03:42 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
danieldwilliamAlong the M8 to Glasgow where nearly as many people voted as didn't bother. Turn out was 47.4% which compares pretty badly with the 57.9% turnout in Lothians. Seats are more disproportionately allocated than in Lothian. The SNP polled 45% of the proper vote but left with 56% of the seats. The Greens 9% of the vote for 6% of the seats.
The order of regional seat allocation was Labour, Labour, Conservative, Green, Labour, Labour, Conservative.
The last seat looks like a good seat for the Conservatives. In the final seat allocation they had a margin of about 3,000 votes over Labour, the Greens and the SNP. To win the seat would require those parties to increase their regional votes by 20%, 13% and for the SNP a whooping 30%. A safe enough seat for the Greens but lots of work to do to win a second list seat.
There is evidence of constituency votes switching from the SNP and Labour to the Greens and a host of small parties. These smaller parties polled just over 19 thousand votes between them.
The Liberal Democrats do noticeably worse in Glasgow than in the Lothians with 3% of the regional vote, only about 1,000 ahead of UKIP. The Women's Equality Party do a little worse in Glasgow than in the Capital. Just over 1% of the vote in Edinburgh, just under 1% in Glasgow. Rise and Solidarity do a little better in Glasgow. Had they combined themselves they would have finished above the Liberal Democrats in 5th place. 313 more people love animals in Glasgow than love Christ. Or at least 1,819 people are prepared to vote for the Animal Welfare Party and only 1,506 for the Scottish Christian Party. Both were beaten by A Better Britain - Unionists who favour a unitary British state with social democracy for all.
The SNP hold a very strong position in the Glasgow constituencies. They won all nine of them. Their smallest majority is over 3,700 and in all but two of the nine seats they won an absolute majority. The only excitement in the constituencies is that the Greens, running Patrick Harvie in Glasgow Kelvin came second to the SNP with 24.3% of the vote. The Green / Labour vote share if combined would have seen the Green's take the seat. The SNP would have then won a top up seat in the regions so not much incentive for Labour there but, really, these minor parties ought to stop messing about and splitting the left of centre vote. Harvie winning is about the only plausible counter factual I can think.
Once again, 111 thousand regional votes net the SNP nothing extra but provided a solid back up to the constituency vote, Had they slipped up in marginal Kelvin they'd have been relieved to see that many people in Glasgow went #BothVotesSNP.
Party |
Regional Votes |
% of Vote |
Constituency Vote |
Constituency % |
Constituency Seats |
Evenutal List Seats |
Total Seats |
% of Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNP | 111,101 | 45% | 128,443 | 53% | 9 | - | 9 | 56% |
| Conservative | 29,533 | 12% | 28,906 | 12% | 2 | 2 | 13% | |
| Labour | 59,151 | 24% | 70,378 | 29% | 4 | 4 | 25% | |
| Scottish Green | 23,398 | 9% | 6,916 | 3% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6% |
| Liberal Democrats | 5,850 | 2% | 7,865 | 3% | - | 0 | 0% | |
| UKIP | 4,889 | 2% | - | 0% | - | 0 | 0% | |
| Women's Equality | 2,091 | 0.84% | - | 0% | - | 0 | 0% | |
| RISE | 2,454 | 1% | - | 0% | - | 0 | 0% | |
| Solidarity | 3,593 | 1% | - | 0% | - | 0 | 0% | |
| Independent | 0% | 699 | 0% | - | 0 | 0% | ||
| Libertarian | 271 | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0 | 0% | |
| A Better Britain – Unionist Party | 2,453 | 1% | - | 0% | - | 0 | 0% | |
| Animal Welfare | 1,819 | 1% | - | 0% | - | 0 | 0% | |
| Scottish Christian | 1,506 | 1% | - | 0% | - | 0 | 0% | |
| 248,109 | 100% | 243,207.00 | 100% | 9 | 7 | 16 | 100% |
The order of regional seat allocation was Labour, Labour, Conservative, Green, Labour, Labour, Conservative.
The last seat looks like a good seat for the Conservatives. In the final seat allocation they had a margin of about 3,000 votes over Labour, the Greens and the SNP. To win the seat would require those parties to increase their regional votes by 20%, 13% and for the SNP a whooping 30%. A safe enough seat for the Greens but lots of work to do to win a second list seat.
There is evidence of constituency votes switching from the SNP and Labour to the Greens and a host of small parties. These smaller parties polled just over 19 thousand votes between them.
The Liberal Democrats do noticeably worse in Glasgow than in the Lothians with 3% of the regional vote, only about 1,000 ahead of UKIP. The Women's Equality Party do a little worse in Glasgow than in the Capital. Just over 1% of the vote in Edinburgh, just under 1% in Glasgow. Rise and Solidarity do a little better in Glasgow. Had they combined themselves they would have finished above the Liberal Democrats in 5th place. 313 more people love animals in Glasgow than love Christ. Or at least 1,819 people are prepared to vote for the Animal Welfare Party and only 1,506 for the Scottish Christian Party. Both were beaten by A Better Britain - Unionists who favour a unitary British state with social democracy for all.
The SNP hold a very strong position in the Glasgow constituencies. They won all nine of them. Their smallest majority is over 3,700 and in all but two of the nine seats they won an absolute majority. The only excitement in the constituencies is that the Greens, running Patrick Harvie in Glasgow Kelvin came second to the SNP with 24.3% of the vote. The Green / Labour vote share if combined would have seen the Green's take the seat. The SNP would have then won a top up seat in the regions so not much incentive for Labour there but, really, these minor parties ought to stop messing about and splitting the left of centre vote. Harvie winning is about the only plausible counter factual I can think.
Once again, 111 thousand regional votes net the SNP nothing extra but provided a solid back up to the constituency vote, Had they slipped up in marginal Kelvin they'd have been relieved to see that many people in Glasgow went #BothVotesSNP.
