danieldwilliam: (machievelli)
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Lothians

I'll be trawling through the Scotitsh election results with some excel and some plausible counter-factuals - trying to assess how close the election result was. I'm going to start with the Lothians because it's home turf and, as a Green party member, a fertile strip of beneficent and right minded voters.

Overall turn out was 57.9%. Seats generally aligned well with the regional vote tally. There is evidence that people are shifting their votes from the First Past the Post constituency vote to the regional list vote with votes flowing from the SNP. Lib Dems and Labour to the Conservatives,  and Greens.




Party



Regional Votes



% of Vote



Constituency Vote



Constituency %



Constituency Seats



Evenutal List Seats



Total Seats



% of Seats
SNP 118,546 36% 137,996 42% 6 0 6 38%
Conservative 74,972 23% 67,837 21% 1 3 4 25%
Labour 67,991 21% 84,975 26% 1 2 3 19%
Scottish Green 34,551 11% 4,644 1% 2 2 13%
Liberal Democrats 18,479 6% 29,095 9% 1 1 6%
UKIP 5,802 2% - 0% 0 0%
Women's Equality 3,877 1% - 0% 0 0%
RISE 1,641 1% - 0% 0 0%
Solidarity 1,319 0% - 0% 0 0%
Independent 1,344 0%
Libertarian 119 0%
327,178 100% 326,010.00 100% 9 7 16 100%


Starting with the regional list (also known as your proper vote). Seats were won in the following order.


Conservative, Green, Labour, Conservative, Labour, Conservative, Green

Had the Lib Dems not won Edinburgh Western and the Tories not won Edinburgh Central and Labour not won Edinburgh Southern the Greens would not have won their second seat.

The second Green seat is pretty marginal. In the last d'hondt round the Greens had 17,275 and Labour 16,668. Labour would need another 834 votes to gain the last seat over the Greens. The SNP would have need 2,042 extra votes to pick up the last seat over the Greens. Pretty tight.

If all of the UKIP voters has switched to the Tories this would not have been quite enough for them to gain a 5th seat.

The first Green seat is pretty safe. Won on the second round by a comfortable margin. It would need an additional 2,935 votes for the Greens to win the seat on the first d'hondt round.

Looking at the Constituencies - it is arguably the case that Alison Johnstone cost Alison Dickie Edinburgh Central for the SNP. In which case, from a Green point of view, good. As a Conservative loss in Edinburgh Central would have cost the Greens Andy Wightman's second Lothian list seat.

This assumes that all of the Green voters would have voted SNP. They might all have plausably voted Labour, in which case the Greens have cost Labour a second constituency seat.
Edinburgh Southern, Edinburgh Western and Edinburgh Pentlands are close. Not razor thin but close. Modest swings would see Labour lose Edinburgh Southern, the SNP lose Edinburgh Pentlands or the Lib Dems lose Edinburgh Western. Each of theparties would make up the seat on the regional list. A Labour or Lib Dem loss would do so at the expense of the Greens.

118 thousand list votes didn't get the SNP much. They were pretty comfortable winners in the constituencies they won. They would have needed a few thousand more votes to over-hang and win a list seat. But, if they'd have a couple of thousand extra votes they might well have won one of the constituencies and not been awarded the list seat.

Date: 2016-05-12 10:15 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] widgetfox.livejournal.com
Have a beer.

Date: 2016-05-12 10:23 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com
I deserve one after all the voting I've been doing.

That said, my dad was round for a beer last night and we were talking about voting.

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