danieldwilliam: (electoral reform)
[personal profile] danieldwilliam
Mixed results on my predictions of the Scottish election results.

The SNP did less well than I expected. I'd predicited them winning an absolute majority based on a more or less clean sweep in the constituency vote on a vote share of just short of 50%. As it turns out they won 59 out 73 seats on 46.5% of the constituency vote. Their list vote share of 41.7% was significantly lower than I expected. They've gained constituency seats but not held up their list vote enough to avoid a net loss of seats.

I expect when I get hold of the detailed results there will be a couple of near misses and something about vote efficiency and d'hondt to be said. Hey ho.

The Tories did much better than I expected. I thought the Labour Party would just about hold on to second place overall. The Conservatives ended up with 31 seats to Labour's 24. The Tories behind the Labour Party on vote share 22% to 22.6% in the constituencies but ahead 22.9% to 19.1% in the regions. The Labour Party constituency vote looks widely dispersed and therefore inefficient.

Who'd have thought that one of the posher bits of Edinburgh would turn out to be a Labour stronghold?

The Greens did a little less well than I thought they would. I'd predicted 8 seats, they (we) won 6. However, a pretty decent result for the Greens who triple their representation, increase their vote share in the regions, return two MSP's for Lothians and did pretty well in Glasgow Kelvin and Edinburgh Central. The 2.2% increase in regional list vote share seems to have been enough for the Greens to take the last seat in several more regions.

Lib Dems win 5 seats. 4 Constituencies and 1 list seat. I think a bit of an improved situation for them. Their local infrastructure seems to be recovering and it's nice to bank a few constituency seats. I think the Lib Dems winning a few constituencies will be a factor in the Greens wining six rather than 4 seats.

UKIP no seats. Not even close. I thought they would be closer to winning a seat in a few regions. 40 thousand votes across the country. 2.0% vote share. I doubt they will pick up any councillors off the back of that position.

Looking further down the list results Solidarity and RISE both polling very low numbers. Between them about 25 thousand votes and 1.1% of the vote share. It's probably game over them. I'm not sure how they can keep an party infrastructure going with no representation and no prospect of any.

The Women's Equality Party polled just short of 6 thousand votes. That's probably not enough to build from. Particularly in a Parliament where 4 out of the 6 party leaders are women but it's good to see the apparatus in place for an electoral rebuke if Parliament continues to treat half the population as if they were not fully human.

Turn out was 55.6% - up about 5% from the 2011 election but no where near the referendum turn out.

A minority government. A majority in Holyrood for indepedence with 63 SNP and 6 Greens but I see no evidence that the nation is champing at the bit to have round two right now. The SNP with decent blocks of opposition on all sides. That should make for a more interesting Parliament.

in terms of winners and losers. Big winners are the SNP. Yes, they didn't do as well as the polls predicted or as well they did last time but any election you walk away from still being in government is a big win. The Tories and the Greens should be happy. I suspect this is peak Tory. It might be peak Green. The Lib Dems appear to have finally weathered the storm and rounded the point and other nautical analogies. The Labour Party will be disappointed. They need to win 20 seats from the SNP to have a chance of forming a government. UKIP very disappointed.

As for the predictions - were the polls wrong or was there a late swing away from the SNP? Was I paying enough attention? Or did SNP voters think they had the constituencies all sown up and distribute their list votes? Is that even the right question to ask. Difficult to tell.

More thoughts on the trajectory of the Parliament a bit later.

Date: 2016-05-07 02:48 am (UTC)
matgb: Artwork of 19th century upper class anarchist, text: MatGB (Default)
From: [personal profile] matgb
I am curious what would happen with the electoral system if the SNP only ran constituency candidates and endorsed the Greens for the list, that would be gaming it and then some but it might make for an interesting result.

Might run the numbers at some point just to see.

Date: 2016-05-07 06:41 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com

Or if the Conservatives did the same and endorsed the Lib Dems or the Labour Party.

Or if the Labour Party ran as the Labour Party in the constituency vote and the Co-Operative Party on the list.

Date: 2016-05-07 06:53 am (UTC)
matgb: Artwork of 19th century upper class anarchist, text: MatGB (Default)
From: [personal profile] matgb
Less effective for parties that're unlikely to win a huge number of constituency seats anyway, and I suspect the Electoral Commission would come down hard if they thought it was too obviously rigging the system. But it would make sense for this sort of pact in areas, depending on the local conditions.

Can't see LDs endorsing a direct pact with the Tories, for example (and they'd have to change the party constitution to allow it anyway).

Having said that, from what I've seen Ruth strikes me as being much more obviously from the Liberal Unionist tradition within the Conservatives rather than the Tory tradition.

Date: 2016-05-07 07:20 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com

If you're mulling over a an SNP Green pact as an actually potential thing - are you familiar with the #BothVotesSNP stramash and the associated cries of Traitor that went along with it?

Date: 2016-05-07 07:28 am (UTC)
matgb: Artwork of 19th century upper class anarchist, text: MatGB (Default)
From: [personal profile] matgb
Oh yes, definitely, I'm not saying it would happen, I'd be curious about what would happen if it did happen (or indeed how else you could game the system).

That there are now tribally partisan SNP/Indy supporters who can't take off their damn blinkers is par for the course, but it's not necessarily even hte majority of SNP members/supporters that're that stupid (we have similar Labour types locally, but they're a distinct minority, fortunately).

Date: 2016-05-07 10:24 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] danieldwilliam.livejournal.com

I think when you run the numbers you'd end up with about 18 Greens.

But also 4 fewer SNP MSP's.


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