On EURef Margins

[danieldwilliam]

I am currently undecided whether I would prefer an AVRef size win by Remain  (thus burying any prospect of the UK leaving the EU and taking Scotland with it for forever) or a closer  Indyref level of Remainitude with the prospect of the Tories going pure dead mental over the issue for a generation and launching a party destroying civil war.

Comments

[f4f3.livejournal.com]

At the moment, I think there will be a vote to leave - there's just too much support for it in the media to make me think that any other result is possible.

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

I think the opinion polls are tending to Remain and you probably have to add 5% to the status quo vote when it comes to the actual vote.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11617702/poll.html


http://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/poll-of-polls/

The polls have narrowed a bit in recent weeks - I suspect that is probably an artifact of the exposure the Leave campaign has received post Boris.

[f4f3.livejournal.com]

From those links I'm not sure I'd agree with you about the trending - the gap seems lower now than it is in the earlier polls.

I'm not sure, too, how they're adjusted for age: we all know that the older vote was decisive in the Scottish referendum, and the oldies seem pretty much in favour of leaving.

Perhaps Glastonbury will swing it - how many of the young(er) attendees do you think will get their postal votes in?

[danieldwilliam.livejournal.com]

A somewhat narrowing trend but still a lead for Remain at a time when the Leave campaign has been getting all the publicity because of the high profile defections of several Tories.

Tack on a 5% on the day swing back towards the status quo and Remain wins by 56% to 44%. Slap bang on the Indyref result.

I think the old people what won it outcome of Indyref is something that everyone knows but which isn't actually as true as people think it is. Older people appear to have been skewed towards the Union and more skewed the older they got but younger people were split on the subject.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/13181487.Full_indyref_survey_reveals_young_voters_voted_No_and_only_25_39_age_group_said_Yes/