I suspect you might well be right about his position as leader and his motivation. (1) Certainly the Conservative Party has a track record of disposing of leaders they feel are electoral liabilities. Whether Cameron is actually an electoral liability compared to potential replacements is a moot question in my view. His personal approval rating is pretty poor but than so are Miliband and Clegg’s. Nobody jumps out at me as a potential popular alternative leader.
There is also the view that for the first time a long time the positions of Leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister are constitutionally separate. Clegg signed up to a coalition deal with Cameron as Prime Minister. The Tories don’t get to pick who is Prime Minister, Clegg and the Lib Dems get a vote too. The electoral math in the House of Commons is periously close to allowing a minority Labour / Lib Dem coalition and the immediate financial crises requiring a stable government has faded a bit. So Clegg could well say he signed a deal with Cameron and not with anyone else. As indeed could any of the Liberal Democrats.
If this on its own buys him a year that takes him through to January 2014 with a May 2015 election. I tend to agree that that is perhaps too close for new leader but perhaps not. Who knows how the mind of the 1922 Committee works?
(1) In which case he has chosen security today in exchange for problems tomorrow. Not a crazy choice to make if that is your only choice.
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timeasmymeasure
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Date: 2013-01-24 05:07 pm (UTC)There is also the view that for the first time a long time the positions of Leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister are constitutionally separate. Clegg signed up to a coalition deal with Cameron as Prime Minister. The Tories don’t get to pick who is Prime Minister, Clegg and the Lib Dems get a vote too. The electoral math in the House of Commons is periously close to allowing a minority Labour / Lib Dem coalition and the immediate financial crises requiring a stable government has faded a bit. So Clegg could well say he signed a deal with Cameron and not with anyone else. As indeed could any of the Liberal Democrats.
If this on its own buys him a year that takes him through to January 2014 with a May 2015 election. I tend to agree that that is perhaps too close for new leader but perhaps not. Who knows how the mind of the 1922 Committee works?
(1) In which case he has chosen security today in exchange for problems tomorrow. Not a crazy choice to make if that is your only choice.