There's a difference between potential voters and actual voters. Someone (probably Ros) made the point that potential voters don't necessarily bestir themselves unless they think their preferred candidate is at risk. Kimberley was second from the top on the day she ended up in the bottom two, which might mean that she has little public support but also might mean that her potential voters had not bestirred themselves because they thought her safe.
When we were at WEMBLEY, Lisa was by far the most popular dancer of the evening, judging from audience reaction. If that is translating into votes then she should do well for a while.
I think you're probably right that Denise and Dani are likely finalists and Denise a likely winner.
Ros and I also talked a lot about chemistry between partners, which we think is a big deal in both dancing progress and public attractiveness. We think one of the problems with Louis is that there is little chemistry between him and Flavia. Dani and Vincent have phenomenal chemistry and are far more than the sum of the parts, and Lisa and Robin are pretty good too. Denise and James are two diehard and very gifted professionals, which is not quite the same thing. So it's possible that one of the other pairs might overtake them in the public affection.
I would adore to see Lisa and Robin in the final, but I am not betting on it.
All that said, I agree with the general thrust of your analysis. Only caveat is that I think there are five people in the semis, not four, so you need to repick that one.
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timeasmymeasure
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Date: 2012-11-22 11:11 am (UTC)When we were at WEMBLEY, Lisa was by far the most popular dancer of the evening, judging from audience reaction. If that is translating into votes then she should do well for a while.
I think you're probably right that Denise and Dani are likely finalists and Denise a likely winner.
Ros and I also talked a lot about chemistry between partners, which we think is a big deal in both dancing progress and public attractiveness. We think one of the problems with Louis is that there is little chemistry between him and Flavia. Dani and Vincent have phenomenal chemistry and are far more than the sum of the parts, and Lisa and Robin are pretty good too. Denise and James are two diehard and very gifted professionals, which is not quite the same thing. So it's possible that one of the other pairs might overtake them in the public affection.
I would adore to see Lisa and Robin in the final, but I am not betting on it.
All that said, I agree with the general thrust of your analysis. Only caveat is that I think there are five people in the semis, not four, so you need to repick that one.