Interesting article. I’m not sure I share Kettle’s view (as implied) that the rise of China is going to result in low growth for the UK.
Nor do I share Ryan Bourne of the Centre for Policy Studies response that low-tax, low-regulation policy responses are the only answer or an entire answer.
The OECD report on which both of these articles are based see UK GDP trend growth to 2011 as 2.3%. Over the next few decades they forecast 1.9% then rising for the three decades to 2060 2.2%.
For per capita GDP growth the figures are 1.9%, 1.3% and 1.8%..
1.9% GDP growth on average over the next two decades is okay. I’ll take that. Compared to the effectively zero growth we’ve seen for the last few years 1.9% growth is going to feel like paradise.
Big assumption in the OECD forecast is that people continue to retire at 65. Which I personally just don’t see happening. Either structurally in terms of the rules or through individual choice.
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timeasmymeasure
no subject
Date: 2012-11-15 05:24 pm (UTC)Nor do I share Ryan Bourne of the Centre for Policy Studies response that low-tax, low-regulation policy responses are the only answer or an entire answer.
http://www.cps.org.uk/blog/q/date/2012/11/15/there-is-no-global-race-and-prosperity-is-not-zero-sum/
The OECD report on which both of these articles are based see UK GDP trend growth to 2011 as 2.3%. Over the next few decades they forecast 1.9% then rising for the three decades to 2060 2.2%.
For per capita GDP growth the figures are 1.9%, 1.3% and 1.8%..
1.9% GDP growth on average over the next two decades is okay. I’ll take that. Compared to the effectively zero growth we’ve seen for the last few years 1.9% growth is going to feel like paradise.
Big assumption in the OECD forecast is that people continue to retire at 65. Which I personally just don’t see happening. Either structurally in terms of the rules or through individual choice.