Ukraine's allies have the capacity to significantly damange Russia's productive capacity through sanctions and Ukraine's allies can (and perhaps have) offered Ukraine an unlimited line of credit to buy necessary things from the West's factories. So I think Ukraine's productive capacity available to be used for fighting has probably increased whereas Russia's has decreased.
I'm not sure that I would phrase it as losing the war more slowly than expected. That may be true but I don't think wars are binary, in that you win if the other side loses. Both sides will have their war aims and those can be othoganal. It's possible that neither side achieves their war aims or that both sides do. I don't think Russia can achieve their war aims now. The Ukrainians might still be able to.
Russia does have a ticking clock in that sanctions are impacting their economy and every day they don't advance much but lose a tank or a company of soldiers is a day closer to them running out of stuff and people. I think the Ukrainians will be prepared to fight on much much longer than the Russians. Even if the Russian leadership don't care about their own troops the troops do care about themselves and can desert or run away.
I think you are very correct that this war will become much, much nastier before it ends.
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timeasmymeasure
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Date: 2022-03-21 04:46 pm (UTC)I'm not sure that I would phrase it as losing the war more slowly than expected. That may be true but I don't think wars are binary, in that you win if the other side loses. Both sides will have their war aims and those can be othoganal. It's possible that neither side achieves their war aims or that both sides do. I don't think Russia can achieve their war aims now. The Ukrainians might still be able to.
Russia does have a ticking clock in that sanctions are impacting their economy and every day they don't advance much but lose a tank or a company of soldiers is a day closer to them running out of stuff and people. I think the Ukrainians will be prepared to fight on much much longer than the Russians. Even if the Russian leadership don't care about their own troops the troops do care about themselves and can desert or run away.
I think you are very correct that this war will become much, much nastier before it ends.