Yes, I think fundamentally Alba were trying to operate as a decoy list party. You could argue there were some substantive differences on the main policy issue of the timing of the next referendum but as they were explicitly seeking List votes to max out the Yes majority in Holyrood it's not a very strong argument.
I think their lack of success is probably driven by 1) they are a new, small party and then 2) Alex Salmond is well dodgey 3) Sturgeon signalling a move towards a more Plan B position than she had previously articulated rather than concerns about gaming the system.
Agreed on the both votes SNP as prudent belt and braces approach. Also, the SNP don't want to be leveraged in to allowing the Greens too much policy freedom as the SNP coalition is much broader than the SGP's. They would mostly like to deliver beige social democracy without scaring the horses. Mostly.
I think you are correct about using AV for the constituency votes. I like AV+ as a system - nearly as much as STV. There is some evidence of Unionist tactical voting. I think it is safe for Labour and Lib Dem voters to switch a little to the Conservatives because they expect to get an SNP government anyway (doing beige social democracy) and have regional vote to make sure their party gets some seats anyway. I don't think a voting system should encourage voter to shrug their shoulders and say "this'll do."
I think in rural area with large constituencies what you will get in practice is de facto MSP for smaller geographical areas inside the larger one. But I think these problems are unavoidable. Orkney, the smallest seat by population has a population of 22 thousand, one quarter the size of the largest constituencies, and one third the size of the average constituency. Highlands and Islands as a region has about two thirds the population of the average region.
Given that only about 1 person in ten lives in properly rural Scotland I'm not sure how much we ought to bend our electoral system out of shape to accommodate rural voters. If you take the six geographically largest constituencies (Caithness, Sutherland and Ross, Skye, Lochaber and Badenock, Argyle and Bute, Na h-Eileanan an Iar, Orkney and Shetland as one STV constituency, that's pushing on for a third of the land area of Scotland but only 5% of the population. I'm not sure there is a solution that works well for rural Scotland that also works well for the country as a whole.
I don't like STV with 4 or fewer seats. I don't think it gains much of the benefits of STV over AV.
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timeasmymeasure
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Date: 2021-05-12 10:15 am (UTC)Yes, I think fundamentally Alba were trying to operate as a decoy list party. You could argue there were some substantive differences on the main policy issue of the timing of the next referendum but as they were explicitly seeking List votes to max out the Yes majority in Holyrood it's not a very strong argument.
I think their lack of success is probably driven by 1) they are a new, small party and then 2) Alex Salmond is well dodgey 3) Sturgeon signalling a move towards a more Plan B position than she had previously articulated rather than concerns about gaming the system.
Agreed on the both votes SNP as prudent belt and braces approach. Also, the SNP don't want to be leveraged in to allowing the Greens too much policy freedom as the SNP coalition is much broader than the SGP's. They would mostly like to deliver beige social democracy without scaring the horses. Mostly.
I think you are correct about using AV for the constituency votes. I like AV+ as a system - nearly as much as STV. There is some evidence of Unionist tactical voting. I think it is safe for Labour and Lib Dem voters to switch a little to the Conservatives because they expect to get an SNP government anyway (doing beige social democracy) and have regional vote to make sure their party gets some seats anyway. I don't think a voting system should encourage voter to shrug their shoulders and say "this'll do."
I think in rural area with large constituencies what you will get in practice is de facto MSP for smaller geographical areas inside the larger one. But I think these problems are unavoidable. Orkney, the smallest seat by population has a population of 22 thousand, one quarter the size of the largest constituencies, and one third the size of the average constituency. Highlands and Islands as a region has about two thirds the population of the average region.
Given that only about 1 person in ten lives in properly rural Scotland I'm not sure how much we ought to bend our electoral system out of shape to accommodate rural voters. If you take the six geographically largest constituencies (Caithness, Sutherland and Ross, Skye, Lochaber and Badenock, Argyle and Bute, Na h-Eileanan an Iar, Orkney and Shetland as one STV constituency, that's pushing on for a third of the land area of Scotland but only 5% of the population. I'm not sure there is a solution that works well for rural Scotland that also works well for the country as a whole.
I don't like STV with 4 or fewer seats. I don't think it gains much of the benefits of STV over AV.