It's a bit early to tell because I'd want to poke around in some counter-factuals about the constituency seats and see how marginal the marginal list seats are but some conclusions from this exercise and from having done this a few times already.
1) Generally, winning seats on the list is hard if you do very well in constituencies. 2) Scotland's voting patterns are lopside (SNP 40%-50%, everyone else 60%-50%) 3) The split between constituency seats and regional seats in Scotland does have an effect on the outcome - it makes it difficult for smaller parties to win seats and easier for very, very big parties to win government, but not a majority. (If I were going to reform the sytem a little I might be tempted to add 2 or 3 seats decided on the national vote share). Lib Dems with 5% of the vote, 3 % of the seats, Greens with 8% of the votes, 6% of the seats, SNP with 40% of the vote, 49.6% of the seats) 4) Alba had almost no impact on the election. (Which is not the same as your point about whether Alex Salmond had an impact on the election - still thinking that over.) 5) Alba were right about their fundamental point about the electoral system. 6) I like Mixed Member Proportionality more than I used to but not as much as STV or AV+
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timeasmymeasure
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Date: 2021-05-11 01:27 pm (UTC)1) Generally, winning seats on the list is hard if you do very well in constituencies.
2) Scotland's voting patterns are lopside (SNP 40%-50%, everyone else 60%-50%)
3) The split between constituency seats and regional seats in Scotland does have an effect on the outcome - it makes it difficult for smaller parties to win seats and easier for very, very big parties to win government, but not a majority. (If I were going to reform the sytem a little I might be tempted to add 2 or 3 seats decided on the national vote share). Lib Dems with 5% of the vote, 3 % of the seats, Greens with 8% of the votes, 6% of the seats, SNP with 40% of the vote, 49.6% of the seats)
4) Alba had almost no impact on the election. (Which is not the same as your point about whether Alex Salmond had an impact on the election - still thinking that over.)
5) Alba were right about their fundamental point about the electoral system.
6) I like Mixed Member Proportionality more than I used to but not as much as STV or AV+
More to follow...