Partly just natural caution about prediction making.
Partly a bit of a psychological buffer against being too optimisitic.
Partly my general assumption that big project, especially those run by a modern state, tend to take a while to get started.
Partly a specific view in the case of early vaccines that we will prioritise getting something useful in to production soonest over getting the best thing in to production a bit later on - but this implies that the things we get in to production soonest won't necessarily be the best. Hopefully I'm wrong on that and we happen to find the best option early on.
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timeasmymeasure
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Date: 2020-10-05 12:14 pm (UTC)Partly a bit of a psychological buffer against being too optimisitic.
Partly my general assumption that big project, especially those run by a modern state, tend to take a while to get started.
Partly a specific view in the case of early vaccines that we will prioritise getting something useful in to production soonest over getting the best thing in to production a bit later on - but this implies that the things we get in to production soonest won't necessarily be the best. Hopefully I'm wrong on that and we happen to find the best option early on.