I think the guess that there would be 35,000 coronavirus deaths "within a few weeks" was reasonably close.
Where scenario diverged from reality was the R rate. If I read myself correctly I was projecting an on-going R rate of 0.9 to see when we mightexpect any meaningful herd immunity. Looks like the various social distancing measures reduced the R rate quite a lot below 0.9. So we've been able to reduce the total number of ill people and onward transmission a lot. More in Scotland than in England I think for "some reason".
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timeasmymeasure
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Date: 2020-08-08 09:58 am (UTC)Where scenario diverged from reality was the R rate. If I read myself correctly I was projecting an on-going R rate of 0.9 to see when we mightexpect any meaningful herd immunity. Looks like the various social distancing measures reduced the R rate quite a lot below 0.9. So we've been able to reduce the total number of ill people and onward transmission a lot. More in Scotland than in England I think for "some reason".