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In a slight departure for me I've been looking at the English Premiership - Soccer edition.
There has been a suggestion that the league could re-open, playing its games behind closed doors, with the games playing in clusters at neutral venues. Sort of a series of football festivals. The idea is to minimise travel and contain contacts.
So what are the first two festivals? My idea here is to find the games that give the maximum knowledge about "important" questions. Who wins the title, who is relegated, who finishes in the top 4 or 5th European qualification positions. (putting this another way, can we work out which fixtures won't tell us anything of interest or are likely not to - so that we can avoid the unnecessary risk of playing the games at all. The middle clubs, Burnley to Southampton are unlikely to qualify for Europe or be relegated, but when can we be sure that they won't have to play again.)
Clearly the most important question is who has won the title. That can only be either Liverpool or Manchester City. Liverpool are 25 points ahead. Man City have 10 games to play, 30 points available to them. Liverpool winning two games makes them uncatchable. Liverpool winning 1 game and Man City losing 1 game, makes Liverpool uncatchable. Liverpool winning 1 game and Man City drawing 2, makes Liverpool uncatchable.
Liverpool and Man City have a game to play against each other. If Liverpool win that, they win the title. That seems the most obvious game to play. So Liverpool and Man City go in to the 1st festival.
At the bottom of the table things are complex. Bournemouth, Aston Villa and Norwich make up the current automatic relegation positions. However, Norwich, on 21 points with 9 games to play could, if they win all their games, finish with 48 points, which would put them on the same number of points as Chelsea, who are currently in 4th.
We need more information about the fortunes of the current bottom clubs in order to plan the second round of most informative fixtures. So all three of the bottom clubs go in to the first festival. Between them they have three fixtures against either Liverpool of Man City.
There is an important distiction between finishing 5th or 6th. One qualifies you for European competition next year. The other, probably doesn't. So we ought to see if including Manchester United, currently 5th gives us useful information. In a group already including Liverpool, Man City, Bournmouth, Villa and Norwich then Man U would have two games, against Bournemouth and Villa.
Then I looked at the unfulfilled fixtures of other teams to see which teams had the most fixtures yet to play against the current list of six. West Ham would have 3 and Southampton 4. Both clubs are reasonably close to the relegation zone. West Ham only not in the relegation zone on goal difference.
So I would propose that the first fixture festival be between Liverpool, Man City, Bournmouth, Villa, Norwich, Man U, West Ham and Southampton. This gives 13 games (out of a total of 92 to play, or 14%). It should settle the Premiership title and it will give us some useful, but inconclusive information on the relegation and top 5 situation. My rough predictions on the likely results would see Man U climb to 3rd with 5 games to play. If they don't win any games then Chelsea and Wolves have a clearer target. 8 teams out of 20 play in this round.
My proposed round 2 would be to start with the top placed clubs who haven't played; Chelsea, Leicester, Wolves and Arsenal then add in the teams who have the most cross over on their unfulfilled fixtures list. I think these are Spurs, Sheffield United, Crystal Palace and Watford. I'll work out the permutations of this later but this festival includes Chelsea in 4th playing Wolves (6th) and Sheffield United (7th), Leicester in 3rd playing Arsenal (9th), Spurs (8th) and Sheffield United (7th) as well as games between Wolves vs Arsenal and the ever popular North London Derby, Arsenal vs Spurs. 8 teams out of 20, running total 16/20
At this point the following teams have not played since lockdown, Burnley, Everton, Newcastle United and Brighton and Hove Albion. So round three is those 4 clubs, plus Norwich ( 3 fixtures against those clubs - total now of 6 games out of 9), West Ham (2 fixtures - total of 5 at least), then 2 out of Liverpool, Man City or Sheffield United depending on earlier results (eg if Liverpool have not yet won the league they should play). Liverpool has a game to play against each of Brighton, Burnely, Newcastle and the derby against Everton. Both Man C and Sheffield United have games against 3 of those 4 clubs. Assuming results go as indicated by current league position then this round starts to properly open up a gap between those who could qualify for Europe and those who probably can't. Results against the curent league positions of the top teams start to confirm relegation for clubs in the bottom three. The advantage of including Liverpool rather than Man City or Sheffield Utd is that, on current form, Liverpool ought to be shoe-ins to win all of their games and this probably reduces the amount of information necessary to conclude the league the most.
If Norwich have lost all of their games the would be 21 points with 3 games to play, with the best points tally availabe to them 30 points. West Ham will have 4 games to play, assume the beat Norwich but no other wins they would be on 28 points with a maximum of 12 points from 4 games, taking them to at best 40 points. Aston Villa (assume they beat West Ham but no other wins, would be on 28 points with 21 points available from 7 games for a maximum score of 49. 49 points would put them above Chelsea currently 4th, but Chelsea would (probably) have won a few of their round 2 fixtures. The relegation situation would be far from settled but it starts to become clear which fixtures could be avoided.
I'll look in more detail at rounds 2 and 3 next
There has been a suggestion that the league could re-open, playing its games behind closed doors, with the games playing in clusters at neutral venues. Sort of a series of football festivals. The idea is to minimise travel and contain contacts.
So what are the first two festivals? My idea here is to find the games that give the maximum knowledge about "important" questions. Who wins the title, who is relegated, who finishes in the top 4 or 5th European qualification positions. (putting this another way, can we work out which fixtures won't tell us anything of interest or are likely not to - so that we can avoid the unnecessary risk of playing the games at all. The middle clubs, Burnley to Southampton are unlikely to qualify for Europe or be relegated, but when can we be sure that they won't have to play again.)
Clearly the most important question is who has won the title. That can only be either Liverpool or Manchester City. Liverpool are 25 points ahead. Man City have 10 games to play, 30 points available to them. Liverpool winning two games makes them uncatchable. Liverpool winning 1 game and Man City losing 1 game, makes Liverpool uncatchable. Liverpool winning 1 game and Man City drawing 2, makes Liverpool uncatchable.
Liverpool and Man City have a game to play against each other. If Liverpool win that, they win the title. That seems the most obvious game to play. So Liverpool and Man City go in to the 1st festival.
At the bottom of the table things are complex. Bournemouth, Aston Villa and Norwich make up the current automatic relegation positions. However, Norwich, on 21 points with 9 games to play could, if they win all their games, finish with 48 points, which would put them on the same number of points as Chelsea, who are currently in 4th.
We need more information about the fortunes of the current bottom clubs in order to plan the second round of most informative fixtures. So all three of the bottom clubs go in to the first festival. Between them they have three fixtures against either Liverpool of Man City.
There is an important distiction between finishing 5th or 6th. One qualifies you for European competition next year. The other, probably doesn't. So we ought to see if including Manchester United, currently 5th gives us useful information. In a group already including Liverpool, Man City, Bournmouth, Villa and Norwich then Man U would have two games, against Bournemouth and Villa.
Then I looked at the unfulfilled fixtures of other teams to see which teams had the most fixtures yet to play against the current list of six. West Ham would have 3 and Southampton 4. Both clubs are reasonably close to the relegation zone. West Ham only not in the relegation zone on goal difference.
So I would propose that the first fixture festival be between Liverpool, Man City, Bournmouth, Villa, Norwich, Man U, West Ham and Southampton. This gives 13 games (out of a total of 92 to play, or 14%). It should settle the Premiership title and it will give us some useful, but inconclusive information on the relegation and top 5 situation. My rough predictions on the likely results would see Man U climb to 3rd with 5 games to play. If they don't win any games then Chelsea and Wolves have a clearer target. 8 teams out of 20 play in this round.
My proposed round 2 would be to start with the top placed clubs who haven't played; Chelsea, Leicester, Wolves and Arsenal then add in the teams who have the most cross over on their unfulfilled fixtures list. I think these are Spurs, Sheffield United, Crystal Palace and Watford. I'll work out the permutations of this later but this festival includes Chelsea in 4th playing Wolves (6th) and Sheffield United (7th), Leicester in 3rd playing Arsenal (9th), Spurs (8th) and Sheffield United (7th) as well as games between Wolves vs Arsenal and the ever popular North London Derby, Arsenal vs Spurs. 8 teams out of 20, running total 16/20
At this point the following teams have not played since lockdown, Burnley, Everton, Newcastle United and Brighton and Hove Albion. So round three is those 4 clubs, plus Norwich ( 3 fixtures against those clubs - total now of 6 games out of 9), West Ham (2 fixtures - total of 5 at least), then 2 out of Liverpool, Man City or Sheffield United depending on earlier results (eg if Liverpool have not yet won the league they should play). Liverpool has a game to play against each of Brighton, Burnely, Newcastle and the derby against Everton. Both Man C and Sheffield United have games against 3 of those 4 clubs. Assuming results go as indicated by current league position then this round starts to properly open up a gap between those who could qualify for Europe and those who probably can't. Results against the curent league positions of the top teams start to confirm relegation for clubs in the bottom three. The advantage of including Liverpool rather than Man City or Sheffield Utd is that, on current form, Liverpool ought to be shoe-ins to win all of their games and this probably reduces the amount of information necessary to conclude the league the most.
If Norwich have lost all of their games the would be 21 points with 3 games to play, with the best points tally availabe to them 30 points. West Ham will have 4 games to play, assume the beat Norwich but no other wins they would be on 28 points with a maximum of 12 points from 4 games, taking them to at best 40 points. Aston Villa (assume they beat West Ham but no other wins, would be on 28 points with 21 points available from 7 games for a maximum score of 49. 49 points would put them above Chelsea currently 4th, but Chelsea would (probably) have won a few of their round 2 fixtures. The relegation situation would be far from settled but it starts to become clear which fixtures could be avoided.
I'll look in more detail at rounds 2 and 3 next
