On Being Strictly Right, or Strictly Wrong.

Average scores this week are down from 31.6 to 30.5 excluding Pendleton averages fall from 33.7 to 31.9. So harsh judging this week.

One of my questions after last week was was Louis going to sort himself out.  The numbers suggest not.  His deviation from average last week was negative 1.6. This week his score is down and his average deviation is negative 3.5.  Problems there.

Michael proved vulnerable on Latin again.  With Pendleton gone he needs to be careful.

I’m frankly stunned by Nicky’s performance. His average score before last night was 24.7. He’s more than 10 points better than his average and 6 better than his previous best.  If he’s turned around his performance as much as that then he deserves to prove me very wrong with my assessment of him as soon to be leaving.

That said I think the Charleston is easier to mark highly and a good Charleston tends to score very well.  (I am guessing here, mainly to save my own ego.)

Kimberly on 34 for the third week in a row, but 34 this week is a relative improvement.

I don’t think my views have fundamentally changed since last week.

I think Nicky and Kimberley have issues with the popular vote and a weak week would see them vulnerable to the dance off.  I think Denise and Dani are both strong enough dancers that they go through if they end up in a dance off.

One thing that occurred to me whilst watching the scoring is the things the way the electoral college works things are tilted slightly in favour of lower placed dancers.

The first two parts of the electoral college ranks dancers by judges score (8-1 for this week) and by popular vote (8-1 for this week.)  There is a very good chance that two or more couples will tie in the judges scoring. This pushes up the score that the lowest placed dancer gets.  It is very unlikely that two couple will finish on the same popular vote.  So Pendleton who finished bottom scored 3, second from bottom Michael scored 4 and Denise who finished top scored 8.  Had Pendleton topped the public vote she would have 11 electoral college votes. If Denise had third from bottom or worse she would have finished below Pendleton in the pre-dance off electoral college. Third from bottom puts Denise on 8+3 = 11 but below Pendleton on public vote.

So a slight advantage to lower placed dancers.  Probably balanced off by the second round of the electoral college after the dance off where dancing skills are judicially appraised.