It's a tough one. Of the current pool, the only ones I can imagine the ERG backing are Raab or Leadsom. There's so much hostility to Raab outside the ERG that I think they'd prefer another candidate. (They'll tolerate that for Boris given what they regard as being his assets but Raab doesn't have those.) Leadsom is a true believer and has Cabinet experience. I think they'd support Mordaunt in principle but she hasn't declared. I don't think Malthouse or Cleverly are big enough hitters and I don't think McVey would be regarded as able to command. My suspicion is that they'd put forward their own candidate if Boris dropped out - probably Baker but possibly JRM.
My long shot is Rory Stewart because he's getting an insane amount of publicity.
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timeasmymeasure
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Date: 2019-05-30 12:33 pm (UTC)It's a tough one. Of the current pool, the only ones I can imagine the ERG backing are Raab or Leadsom. There's so much hostility to Raab outside the ERG that I think they'd prefer another candidate. (They'll tolerate that for Boris given what they regard as being his assets but Raab doesn't have those.) Leadsom is a true believer and has Cabinet experience. I think they'd support Mordaunt in principle but she hasn't declared. I don't think Malthouse or Cleverly are big enough hitters and I don't think McVey would be regarded as able to command. My suspicion is that they'd put forward their own candidate if Boris dropped out - probably Baker but possibly JRM.
My long shot is Rory Stewart because he's getting an insane amount of publicity.