danieldwilliam | On Seven Political Musing (Reply)

A few political musing, or perhaps economic ones.

1) Those jobs in Swindon at the Honda plant are not coming back even if we change our mind about Brexit and seek to rejoin. Once the factory shuts they are toast. Particularly if the other car plants inthe area also close. The skills base and the supply chain will be taken up by some other firms in some other parts of the world. My rule of thumb for headline job numbers is that for every 1 job in a big factory there is 1 job in the supply chain, either upstream or downstream and for every 1 job in the total supply chain there are 1-2 jobs created selling stuff to the people working in the main supply chain. So 3,500 jobs at the plant probably means another 3,500 jobs in the factory's wider supply chain and between 3,500 and 7,000 jobs in the wider economy. As a rough order of magnitude for sizing purposes.

You want them back - ten or twenty year process, 25% chance of any noticable success.

2) The last time a small group of centre-left Labour MP's left the party it lead to a three term radical Labour Government. The three term radical Tory government in between was probably a price worth paying.*

3) If 7 of your MP's, including a former Shadow Cabinet Minister and contender for the leaderhip leave your party citing anti-semitism as a reason and you still don't think you have a problem with anti-semitism then, whomever else has whatever other problem you have a problem with anti-semitism *and* a problem understanding how politics works. I'm exasperated but not surprised that the current Labour leadership haven't worked out that the Labour Party is more prone to splitting than anyone else and that even if your supporters are wrong about you being racist hypocrits you probably need to address their legitimate concerns.** Had I still been a member of the Labour Party I would have resigned yesterday after seeing the behaviour of the Young Labour twitter account.

4) Former Labour MP's currently sitting as independents are now the fourth largest party in the House of Commons, after the Tories, the Labour Party, the SNP and before the Lib Dems and the DUP.

5) Labour MP's quitting the whip and not backing Corbyn as Prime Minister is exactly how I've thought Corbyn doesn't end up as Prime Minister. In the event of a snap election the Labour Party (as well as the Lib Dems and Greens) are going to have think carefully about running candidates against the 7 resigners. In the event that Corbyn does end up as Prime Minister *** we may be looking at the first time in British history that every new Prime Minister in a century is a genuine candidate for worst Prime Minister Ever.****

6) I don't think the resignation from the Labour Party of Umunna et al effects how the Brexit process plays out in any clear way. They were always going to vote against the whip if needed. It might encourage other pro-Remain pro-People's Vote MP's to vote for a second referendum or revocation of Article 50, either inside or outside of the Party. It might persuade Tory Remainers that Corbyn will never become Prime Minister even if they No Confidence May. Or it might not. I still think we are in the early stages of a process of a preference vote between 1) No Deal 2) May's Deal, 3) BINO / Norwayesque 4) Significant Delay 5) Remain with a side order of May attempting to delay that process so as to narrow the field without causing more of a public fight in her own party.

7) I still think betting against the Tory Party splitting is the sensible bet.

*that's a joke.

** also a joke, sort of.

*** Not a joke, but certainly risible.

**** Definately a joke, it's definately David Cameron. Even if Corbyn decided on a policy of unilateral nuclear disarmament through a process of nuking our own nuclear submarine base, it's still David Cameron. And when you think that David Cameron is the least worst current politician who went to Eton, well, have a think about that.

(The other two political muses are stuck on an over crowded Borders train.)