I believe Congressional term limits are comparatively unlikely to materialise.
The currency thing is... interesting, and it may lead to a lot of diplomatic acrimony. Trump's basic conceit throughout the election has been that China is still intentionally bringing down its currency in order to boost its exports. But these days the reality is much more complex (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/01/business/dealbook/china-trump-yuan-devaluation.html) and the Trump interpretation, while popular, appears to be out of date (https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/02/25/i-dont-mean-to-alarm-anyone-about-china-but/). I don't think he'll drop it without some drama, though, given his consistent ill feelings about China.
I'm very worried about his protectionist instincts. Among other things, I think low-income Americans would suffer disproportionately if there was a tariff war. Unfortunately, trade was one of the topics is where Trump's message resonated the most with voters. The dream of repatriating manufacturing jobs from the far-away countries of Robot and Microprocessor isn't terribly realistic but it's clearly very, very compelling to many, many voters. If he proceeds like a conventional politician, then he needs to make good on at least some of his promises. I think he could do a fair bit of damage with just executive orders alone and in somewhat short order.
I notice that Trump has been relatively quiet about the overall shape and form of his intended foreign and military policy. It's another sphere where I'm kind of terrified what he might come up with given his past pronouncements. I'm worried that his European and Russian strategies will lack coherence. And I'm worried that, being a foreign policy neophyte, he will appoint a Secretary of State, a National Security Advisor, and so on more on the basis of the candidates' early commitment to Trump himself, rather than on the basis of any actual foreign policy expertise.
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timeasmymeasure
no subject
Date: 2016-11-10 11:30 pm (UTC)The currency thing is... interesting, and it may lead to a lot of diplomatic acrimony. Trump's basic conceit throughout the election has been that China is still intentionally bringing down its currency in order to boost its exports. But these days the reality is much more complex (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/01/business/dealbook/china-trump-yuan-devaluation.html) and the Trump interpretation, while popular, appears to be out of date (https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/02/25/i-dont-mean-to-alarm-anyone-about-china-but/). I don't think he'll drop it without some drama, though, given his consistent ill feelings about China.
I'm very worried about his protectionist instincts. Among other things, I think low-income Americans would suffer disproportionately if there was a tariff war. Unfortunately, trade was one of the topics is where Trump's message resonated the most with voters. The dream of repatriating manufacturing jobs from the far-away countries of Robot and Microprocessor isn't terribly realistic but it's clearly very, very compelling to many, many voters. If he proceeds like a conventional politician, then he needs to make good on at least some of his promises. I think he could do a fair bit of damage with just executive orders alone and in somewhat short order.
I notice that Trump has been relatively quiet about the overall shape and form of his intended foreign and military policy. It's another sphere where I'm kind of terrified what he might come up with given his past pronouncements. I'm worried that his European and Russian strategies will lack coherence. And I'm worried that, being a foreign policy neophyte, he will appoint a Secretary of State, a National Security Advisor, and so on more on the basis of the candidates' early commitment to Trump himself, rather than on the basis of any actual foreign policy expertise.