On Short Predictions of the Future of Brexit.

[danieldwilliam]

I'm attempting to summarise what I think happens next with Brexit and the Tory Party. Showing my workings. I'm not strongly wedded to this, happy to engage in reasoned conversation.

In summary,

1) On balance,  I think Brexit will not happen. Sort of 55% change of it not happening.

2) I think the next Tory PM and the one after that will both be minced by the process, regardless of the outcome.

The only thing there is a majority for in the House of Commons is no Hard Brexit. The House has taken control of its business in order to prevent that. Attempts by the Government to do an end run around the constitutional priviliges of the House of Commons are likely to a) spark extra-ordinary constitutional measures like a Vote of No Confidence b) make Remainers and Constitutionalists dig in and decide to go for hard remain.

So I think no No Deal Brexit.  This implies one of a) a further extension in October b) revoking Article 50 in October, c) some sort of deal in October.

I don't think the EU will change any aspect of the current deal unless the UK changes its redlines. Those redlines include the Free Movement of People. I can't see the Tory Party moving on that. The House of Commons might accept the current deal but I don't think it will. The Lib Dems and the SNP will have concluded from the Euro elections that they will do better in their target seats the more Remainerer they are. The Labour Party is probably about to shift towards a more People's Vote / Remainery position.

So I think it is unlikely that there will be a deal without an attached confirmatory referendum.  I think Remain will win a confirmatory referendum. (Unless the deal is so altered as to be membership of the Single Market without the political membership of the EU institutions. That might just be enough of a compromise to win.)

A confirmatory referendum will probably require an extension from October of about 7 months. Which takes us to May 2020.

It's possible that Parliament might be pushed in to a position where it has a last minute choice between Hard Brexit and Revoke. I don't think it will come to that. If it does I think Parliament will vote to Revoke and if necessary VONC the PM. The PM would probably have to go anyway under those circumstances.

I don't think the next Tory Prime Minister will like this.

The next Tory PM (probably not Boris Johnson, probably Raab) will probably win the position by talking up their Brexitiness. Whilst there looks to be a small but significant move from Leave to Remain and that move seems to be continuing and it showed up in the Euro election results a) the focus of the Brexit Party vote translates in to headline grabbing seat wins and b) most of the Tory Party think they are fishing in the same waters as the Brexit Party. (I think they are missing a generational opportunity to connect with younger middle-class voters who are economically centre-right. If they are lucky they will have many opportunities to rue this in the middle of the 21st Century.)

I *think* that at some point the next Tory PM is going to try and a) renegotiate the Deal - and fail, b) try to ram the deal through the House - and fail, c) try to leave without a deal - and fail and end up looking like May but with less time to play with.  I don't think they can risk going to the country at the current moment and also the Fixed Term Parliament Act VONC proceedure means that in between the VONC and dissolution AN Other probably gets a chance to form a government. This is more likely if they can assure the Queen that they can command a majority in the House.

Having failed to renegotiate, ram through or leave without the deal the next Tory PM will probably have to go back to the EU and ask for an extension (or be forced to by the House of Commons). My guess is that the EU will insist on second referendum.

So the Tories will probably dump their next PM sometime after that individual is blamed for the extension / People's Vote.

Their next PM will either try the May / Raab route for a third time and be minced or they will "surrender" to the EU and be minced.

At this point we are about due a General Election.

Alternatively, either the next Tory PM or the one after will succed in leaving without a deal and the several tens of thousands of deaths, the food riots and economic shock leading to Daily Mail readers suffering lower house prices and also cancer will mince that PM.

Or the next PM will have to fess up about how difficult Brexit is and then be minced by the Brexity wing of their own party.

It's mince all the way down.

And probably further delays to Brexit, probably a second referendum and probably no actual Brexit.

Meanwhile, the SNP will effectively launch the second Scottish Indepedence referendum campaign the week after next with the introduction of enabling legislation for that referendum. Which should land on the UK PM's desk for the veto just about the time the next Tory PM arrives so that half of Scotland starts by hating them as an enemy of the (Scottish) People.

Other side predictions

Change UK to merge with the Lib Dems by Christmas.

Corbyn to become the most unpopular and most poorly rated leader of the Opposition ever (again / still) by Christmas.

Westminister voting intentions for Labour / Tories combined to fall below 50% by Christmas.

The Electoral  Commission to have investigated the Brexit Party's Euro election conduct by Christmas.

Comments

[andrewducker]

"decide to go for hard remain."

I will certainly vote for whoever suggests we join Schengen.

I assume by "merge with" you mean "apply to join".

[danieldwilliam]

I'm not sure what sort of membership base Change UK actually has. Not a huge one but I think it's a little larger than the 11 MP's in the Commons.

[theandrewhickey]

It doesn't have *any* members. It has supporters on an email list, but no members.
Merger would require Lib Dem conference to pass a constitutional change, which absolutely wouldn't pass. Some of their MPs would be relatively welcome to defect to us though.

[danieldwilliam]

Thank you for the useful and interesting comments.

So, sounds like a formal merger would be difficult from the Lib Dem end of things. And also a bit pointless.

A de facto merger-like operation / mass defection also seems to present some challenges. With 11 MP's each absorbing Change UK would be challenging for the Parliamentary Liberal Democrat party but with no membership structure Change don't bring much else to the table unless they have some generous financial backers who will come with them. They might struggle to bring their email list with them.

I think the Lib Dems would be well advised to make it as easy as possible for all 11 Change UK MP's to join and be safe in the Lib Dems. It helps with their return to relevance narrative, it helps a lot with avoiding vote splitting in the next General Election (which might be soon and might be about Europe), it helps with the anti-Brexit campaign and long term it helps if it is easy for unhappy Tories and Labour MP's to leave their parties and join the Lib Dems.

But I understand that not all of the Change UK MP's would be welcomed by or fit will with the radical liberal elements of the party.

If the Change UK MP's defect to the LIb Dems now what role do they have in selecting the next leader?

[theandrewhickey]

Several of the Change UK MPs actively hate the Lib Dems -- and many of them disagree fundamentally with our principles (for example one was the head of No2AV), so I think mass defection is unlikely. I also don't think that vote-splitting in the election is likely -- they're not going to stand candidates in most places, I imagine, and polling suggests that even their current MPs are all going to lose their seats.
That said, some of them would certainly be welcomed. The ones people keep mentioning as decent are Woolaston, Berger, and possibly Allen and Umunna. They're also the ones who seem likeliest to defect anyway.
As for selecting the next leader -- the way it works is that any MP can stand for the leadership so long as they have the backing of at least 10% of our MPs, and then it's voted on by the membership as a whole. So if they were to defect before the sixth of June, they could theoretically get one of their members on the ballot, and then that member would lose to Jo Swinson.

[momentsmusicaux]

Seconded!

[rhythmaning]

I hope you're right. I want to believe this.


BUT.


"No Deal" is the default. If PM Raab does nothing - NOTHING - we crash out on October 31.


I'm not clear what Parliament can do to stop it. I'm not clear if Parliament can get an extension (the new commission first start till November, I think). There's no time to do anything.


I will be eternally grateful to be proved wrong.

[mountainkiss]

I do actually agree with you more than Dan on this at the moment (and don’t think it will be Raab) but I do think that Parliament could rescind article 50 by executive order.

[danieldwilliam]

If not Raab who do you think?

[mountainkiss]

I think Boris. I don’t think they can keep him out of the final two.

[danieldwilliam]

I see that.

My thinking is that he is greatly distrusted or disliked by many Tory MP's and they would prioritise stopping him. This I think gives a candidate who appeals to the pro-Brexit wing of the party and who can credibly say they can beat Boris some early advantage. I think Raab because at the time of going to print he was the second favourite behind Boris and therefore presumably is credible when he says he can stop Boris.

But like a lot of this I don't hold this view very strongly.

I would personally look forward to a Boris premiership very much. The damage he will do to the Tory Party whilst it is being attacked on its right flank would be delightful to watch.

[drplokta]

Parliament, by definition, cannot do anything by executive order. Parliament is the legislature; the executive is the government. Parliament can legislate to require the government to seek an extension, but the executive might not try very hard, and refuse any conditions in order to cause the request to fail.

[mountainkiss]

I stand corrected, thank you.

I think it could be done, though; quick google produces this even before more extensive search.

[drplokta]

Yes, legislating to revoke is much easier than legislating to extend, because it doesn’t need any agreement from the EU, so there’s no need to negotiate. So the government can’t deliberately cock up the negotiation.

[mountainkiss]

Counterargument here.

[andrewducker]

Bercow has made it clear that Government will not be allowed to railroad Parliament. So I am tentatively hopeful that you are correct.

[mountainkiss]

At the moment my current conclusions from reading are that in a direct conflict the PM would win, and that in this instance Parliament can only avoid a disorderly exit by a vote of no confidence, followed by a GE. That means that if a PM times things well enough, they could force a disorderly exit by automatic operation of rule of law. But I suspect the contenders are too stupid or too much grandstanders to be able to pull this off.

[andrewducker]

I'm hoping that there's enough awareness of the countdown clock for the non-apocalyptically-minded to brings things to a head before then.

Or that parliament can force the PM into another extension.

[danieldwilliam]

I don't think a General Election is necessary, either to avoid a No Deal Brexit with a Vote of No Confidence or to bring down the government generally.

[danieldwilliam]

Parliament can bring down the government any time it wants and replace it with a government of its choosing.

[rhythmaning]

I hope that rebel Tories have the conviction to do so, if push comes to shove, within a timeframe that enables them to request an extension (in the gift of the EU) or to revoke A50.

[danieldwilliam]

So do I.

There is a big difference between Could and Will.

It would be smart for the Lib Dems to make it as easy for those rebel Tories to leave the Tory party as they can.

That might involve keeping Change UK as destination of convenience.

It certainly involves them offering to stand existing candidates down in rebel Tory constitutuencies.

[theandrewhickey]

That's not an offer the central party can make. The decision to stand down a candidate (or to replace a current PPC with a defector) can only be made by the local party in question. Probably most local parties could be persuaded to do so with the right incentives, but not all, and it wouldn't be possible to predict which ones could be so persuaded...

[naath]

I reckon a LAB leadership contest soon, so as not to be left out. I barely dare hope that Brexit will be stopped, but if it isn't I expect the end of the Union.

[danieldwilliam]

I would like there to be a change in Labour Leader but I think the current Parliamentary Labour Party is either gunshy or has reached an accomodation with Corbyn where he doesn't try to deselect them if they don't try to deselect him.

I think Corbyn would handsomely win the membership ballot.

IIRC the current leader appears on the ballot automatically.

Is Arlene Foster safe?