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danieldwilliam) wrote2018-10-15 11:26 am
On Weekends in London and Edinburgh
Well that weekend went okay.
An interesting evening on Friday with widget_fox and Z, the daughter of a famiy friend who is studying in Edinburgh. We went to a panel discussion on peace-making in the 21st century. It was part of the Festival of Politicas at the Scottish Parliament. It was an interesting discussion with some practical considerations for my own work on deliberative democracy and a new constitution for the UK. The Parliament was looking very handsome. Nice to be back and to see the Festival of Politics doing so well and also to buy a pint in the bar that I helped build.
Up early on Saturday morning to fly down to London for a UD meeting. Good disucssion on our New Constitution campaign and some useful steps forward on a review of our governance structures (not exciting but necessary). Less good news on the demographics of our supporters. Basically I am the leader of Guardian readers of the 1980's.
Quick pint afterwards then up to Newcastle to see Bluebird. Very nice Italian dinner near her flat. She seemed on good form. Suffering from a cough. Very excited about her dissertation on the dehuminsation of muslims. Earlyish bed. Brunch on Sunday, then some shopping. I bought a new fleece and a new exercise top and then quite a lot of board games. (Monopoly Roald Dahl edition - pretty but still Monopoly; Viticulture and two expansions - very excited about that; The White Box game design pack; Small Worlds - family friendly fantasy themed risk, Flash Point - family friendly co-operative game, Power Grid expansion.) Flash Point and Small Worlds will operate as Christmas presents. As might Viticulture.
The Captain and I will be visiting in about two weeks time. I think we will go to Segundum and also the Seven Stories children's literature museum.
Toddled home after lunch, got back at about 4. In time to present Roald Dahl Monopoly and start a game before it was time for Doctor Who and Strictly.
Doctor Who felt a bit smug.
I had watched Strictly on Saturday on the train in iPlayer. This worked very well. I thought it was perhaps the best pre-Blackpool Strictly I'd ever seen.
Much mulling over of the Seann and Katya Snoggate. They seem not to have been too adversely affected by the publicity. Mid-table is a dangerous place to be if you are unpopular. Katya's choreography was expansive and they danced well. Some people whose opinion I respect are uncomfortable with the BBC rallying round someone who has treated his girlfriend badly and worries that Katya will suffer professionally if she is associated too closely with a scandal and with Seann Walsh. I am more sanguine. I think the scandal will blow over so long as they don't lock lips again.
I was sad to see Katie Piper leave. I think she's a remarkable person and very brave. She also seemed to be begining to enjoy the dancing. She was never going to win but I'd have liked her to have had another couple of weeks.
I'm not sure why Charles is doing so badly. I think he's a fine dancer and I'd expect an actor from a popular contining drama to have some public backing.
Finalist predictions are Ashley, Faye, Joe and Stacey. I think Ashley is probably going to win.
Watched a couple of episodes of Killling Eve and then to bed in preparation for an early start today for the gym.
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(I voted for Charles and Danny and Ranj on Saturday)
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A few years ago, when I looked at the success or otherwise of BAME people in Strictly I couldn't see much evidence of racial bias.
4 BAME winners and 4 BAME runners-up out of 45 podium positions, 17.7%, compared to 14% BAME population in the UK. 26.6% of winners are BAME.
Only one Scot, 2.2% vs 8.2% of the UK population.
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The first level was to look at podium finishes in which BAME contestants do quite well, as above, 4 winers, 4 placings, total of 8 podium finishes in 15 series.
Mark Ramprakash (cricketer, Indo-Caribbean)
Alesah Dixon (singer, Afro-Caribbean)
Louis Smith (athelete, Afro-Caribbean)
Ore Odube (TV presenter, British African)
have all won
Denise Lewis (athelete, Afro-Caribbean)
Colin Jackson (athelete, Afro-Caribbean)
Alexandra Burke (singer, Afro-Caribbean)
Natalie Gumede (actor, British African)
have all placed.
What (IIRC) I then went looking for was whether there was any evidence that BAME contestents were more likely than average to be an early elimination. I don't recall seeing any but I remember not being entirely convinced that I had a robust method.
Three BAME contestants have gone out in the first round, which is 18.75%, (3/16), which is a touch more than you might expect on pure demographics by 3/4s of a person.
I might have a look over the next week or so and see if I can detect any trend in the data.
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ETA: Also she's American and as far as I remember the only American who has ever been popular with the voters was Pamela Stephenson, who is of course, married to a British treasure, and also benefitted from the 'doing it for the glamorous ladies of a certain age' vote.
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Possibly true though if she really is the best dancer then they'll find it hard not to. Dan will (I think) argue that this is what happened with Denise van Outen. It's also arguably what happened with Natalie Gumede, Alexandra Burke, even Debbie McGee. I think there are other examples too.
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Alexandra was in twice in a row, late on in the competition, putting out Susan Calman and Davood.
Natalie was in one dance-off
Denise was in twice, again late on, putting out Nicky Byrne and Lisa Riley.
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Jamelia?
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But looking at the record not quite.
She had 4 successful dance-off appearances but not not consecutively. Weeks 3, 6, 7 and 9 - then out in week 10.
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Half the dance-off tally comes from the judges, half from the popular vote (with popular vote having a tie-break)
The judges decide who to put through from the dance-off, with the head judge having 2 votes out of 5.
The popular vote becomes more concentrated over time.
So, mostly this will keep better dancers in and less good dancers out as the judges are picking on quality. You get occassional when entertainingly bad dancers go through a few weeks and two good dancers end up in the dance off. John Sergeant and Ed Balls come to mind. I can't think of anyone who was eliminated that way who I thought might have won had they stayed in.
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Sorry.
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So far, not a lot, but I think we might be going to have a chat with them.