![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
danieldwilliam) wrote2012-10-16 01:43 pm
On Life After Losing the Independence Referendum
Here is how I think the Independence Referendum is going to play out.
I think the Yes campaign are going to lose. I think they will poll about 40% of the vote. I’d call this result a definate maybe. Not enough of a rejection to make those who really, really want Scottish independence to give up for fifty years (1). Not close enough to make independence supporters think that they might win a second referendum in 5 years’ time and go through on the away goals rule (2). Some might try to paint this as a resounding vote in favour of the Union but I don’t think it will be seen as such by the people of Scotland. Most Scots will feel that their preferred option of some more powers up to and perhaps including fiscal autonomy wasn’t put to them. I think the result will be seen for what it is, a vote for neither of the two options on offer.
Over the next two years Scotland will be engaged in a long conversation about the constitution, about the practicalities of politics in a multi-nation state, about wealth creation and distribution and national identity. So will England.
From a Scottish point of view I think what will emerge from this is a settled demand for more powers for Holyrood. I think it likely that the bare minimum acceptable increase of powers will be offered as part of the No campaign in order to buy off some floating voters. I think a campaign around fiscal autonomy will begin to coalesce as a No win looks more likely.
There are real threats for anyone who tries to deny strong and consistent demands for more autonomy from Scotland. The Labour Party in particular are vulnerable to losing Westminster seats to the SNP (3) if they take a No vote as an endorsement of the status quo. With the result at 40% or there abouts, those in favour of more autonomy will be able to argue that unless more powers are forthcoming there is the prospect of a second, successful independence referendum in less than a generation. Scotland can await England’s best offer on a revised constitutional settlement for the early part of the 21st Century.
The independence referendum will engage large numbers of people into political activity. That’s my prediciton based on seeing how activists joined and remained within the reform movement following the AV referendum. Some of these people will remain active after the referendum and that’s your presure group for Devolution Max.
What about England? Part of the difficulty of giving, or returning, more powers to Scotland is that the more powers are located in Scotland the more strained our current constitution looks. Powers without fiscal responsibility for Scotland look indulgent. Powers in Scotland that English areas other than London don’t have look unfair. The West Lothian questions become more and more begged. All the talk of national identity and national priorities in Scotland is bound to provoke similar thinking in England. Is the current constitutional framework working for England? Is it working for London? For Cornwall? How do you deal with the differences in opinion and wealth between the South and the North?
So, I see some renewed discussion in England about an English Parliament, or devolved regional assemblies or returning more power and more fund raising responsibility to local authorities. I’ve no idea how this discussion will turn out. Not really my bag to carry.
It makes the 2015 election really, really interesting from a constitutional point of view. Will the Labour Party go into the election campaign, six months after a No vote with a platform of more powers for the devolved parliaments? Will they go into that election with proposals to address the West Lothian question? For some revised constitutional settlement for England?
Or will they have to be dragged to it?
Will the Labour Party win an outright majority or will the Lib Dems do enough to end up in coalition, and in a position to drag a reluctant Labour Party to some form of reform?
How will the SNP fair in Labour’s urban heartlands of Glasgow and the central belt? How far will non-partisan seekers after fiscal autonomy influence the Scottish Labour Party?
All difficult to tell.
And it all sits around allied constitutional questions about the House of Lords and voting systems.
What I think will happen is that even with a No vote in Scotland there will be an inevitabilty about constitutional change in Scotland. This in turn, I think makes the current arrangement of England without its own parliament or assemblies unworkable. Solving these issues opens further questions about the role of Westminster and the use of voting systems (4).
So constitutional change keeps rumbling on as the background conversation to the more bread and butter issues of taxes and pensions and law and order.
I think the choice for the Labour Party is whether they want to manage this process in the 2010’s or be dragooned into it in the 2020’s.
(1) I think this is sub 30%.
(2) High 40’s, mid 40’s is still too far away.
(3) Those Labour supporters in England who doubt that the SNP are a credible threat to your Glasgow MP’s I’d invite you to think about the five Glasgow Holyrood seats Labour lost to the SNP using first past the post. Would you rather hand over tax raising powers to Holyrood or create 20-30 new marginal seats? How long can you be out of government in Scotland and expect Scots to vote for you at Westminster?
(4) I think it very unlikely that any English Parliament or Assembly would use First Past the Post. And what is the House of Lords for if most domestic policy is being formulated in single chamber regional assemblies?
no subject
I tend to agree that Cameron and Osbourne don’t really care much what Scotland does. Goodo.
I look forward to the day when I can say I don’t really care much what they do.
But I think it’s difficult for them to act on this because it appears that many people do.
Also, given that Scotland is a net contributor to the UK state’s exchequor we are what they are selling to their mates.
no subject
Nobody believes that. The picture of feckless, scrounging Scotland has been repeated so often in the media, that it's a given in England. Have a look at the comments in any piece in any English paper about Independence, and it will come out in the first half dozen or so posts.
no subject
In terms of the motivation of senior Tories to defend the union the fact that Scotland is a net contributor is what matters. They can talk about the flag and think about the cold hard cash.
If the rhetoric of Scottish scroungers makes that difficult for them then that is a rod they have made for their own backs.
(Although no one is a net contributor at the moment because no one is a net contributor, except Bluebird and the Captain and the rest of their generation but Scotland runs less of a deficit.)
no subject
I was talking about The Guardian.
no subject
no subject
no subject
We have whisky and kittens and bright copper hair styles, we all wear mittens and carry brown paper parcels tied up with string. Even the wind is a valuable thing.
Although the brown paper parcels might be an improvised explosive device sent to the Board of Celtic.
no subject
Anyway, I'm part Irish, we're used to the IEDs. Hey, some more uh, Republican countrymen of mine invented the damn things. War of the Flea and all that.
no subject
no subject
no subject
no subject
There are only two football clubs in Scotland. Glasgow Celtic and Glasgow SevCo.
That is the law. And if you try to change the law the rich men who safeguard these valuable public institutions will not pay for your election campaign.
Glasgow SevCo are currently unavailable as they are on a goodwill tour of the Penuary and Indigant Highland League followed by a trip to an exhibition match against the President’s XI of the World Tax Accountants Conference in sunny Nova Scotia.
So, you can watch Celtic play itself twice a week over the winter. Occassionally, if the match is dull, they put on a kickboxing exhibition.
Although we do have a very competitive summer cricket league of growing popularity with strong teams in all four corners of Scotland.
no subject
no subject
no subject
no subject
no subject
no subject
A shared hallucination in which they never, ever win the league?
The pies must be good.
no subject
What counts is the history, the cameradie, the pies (yes, they are very good).
no subject
Temptation
Actually, you're welcome to visit Talisker any time. (There's a visitor centre on Skye. Boom boom.)
Re: Temptation