danieldwilliam (![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
danieldwilliam) wrote2021-03-29 01:55 pm
danieldwilliam) wrote2021-03-29 01:55 pm
Entry tags:
On Alba Party Seat Projections in the Holyrood 2021 General Election
My conservative forecast for Alba Party seats at the upcoming Scottish General Election is between 0 and 20. 0/73 Constituency Seats and between 0-20 out 56 Regional List Seats.
The SNP have consistently won 40%+ on the List over the last few election cycles. If half of those people vote for the Alba Party they they get somewhere between 20% and 22% of the vote. A bit less than 20% of the vote got the Scottish Labour Party 24 seats, including 3 constituency seats. 23% got the Conservatives 31 seats including 7 constituency seats. So 20% of the List vote gets you about 20 seats.
I think the Alba Party getting more than half of the SNP List vote is fantastical and to be clear I doubt very much if they will get anywhere near close to 20%.
The bottom of the range is zero seats.
The Regional List Vote d'Hondt system of PR used as part of Scotland's Alternative Member System has an effective threshold of about 5.5% of the vote to get a seat. The List is regional, so it's possible to do well in one or two regions, badly in one or two regions and still pick up 1-2 seat with an overall national average of lower than that. On the other hand, depending on the actual election outcome you could get about 6% evenly across the nation and still not win any List Seats.
So an okay performance of between 4%-6% could see the Alba Party win zero seats. The Lib Dems got 5.2% of the vote and 5 seats. 4 in the Constituencies and 1 in the North East Region - they'd have picked up few more Regional Seats had they not won the Constituency Seats they did. The Scottish Greens on 6.6% of the Regional list won 6 seats, concentrated in the Central Belt.
Anything above 6% nationally and I think they start to be assured of seats. There are 8 electoral regions in Scotland. Central Scotland, Glasgow, Highlands and Islands, Lothian, Mid Scotland and Fife, North East Scotland, South Scotland and West Scotland.
So a vote tally of slightly above 6% probably wins seats in half of those Regions, for 4 seats. 8%-9% is probably a seat in each region for 8 seats in total.
At 10%-15% a lot would depend on how clustered the vote is and how other parties do but you could assume 2 seats in each Region for 16 seats in total.
My political intuition tells me that 2% is a more likely vote tally than 20%. New parties struggle to gain traction. Alex Salmond is an unpopular figure in Scotland and the one thing that would shift that, the uncovering of a conspiracy by the SNP leadership to have him convicted on entirely false charges, doesn't appear to be happening. But I could believe 5%. I could even see 10% with a following wind and a bit of media exposure (in what will be an air and cyber war heavy campaign because of COVD.) Looks like my concern that the Scottish Green's vote includes a significant number of SNP voters tactically and that they might shift to the Alba Party is not happening. Salmond is particularly unpopular with SGP voters.
So, you pays your money, you takes your choice. Anywhere between 0 and 20 seats.
The SNP have consistently won 40%+ on the List over the last few election cycles. If half of those people vote for the Alba Party they they get somewhere between 20% and 22% of the vote. A bit less than 20% of the vote got the Scottish Labour Party 24 seats, including 3 constituency seats. 23% got the Conservatives 31 seats including 7 constituency seats. So 20% of the List vote gets you about 20 seats.
I think the Alba Party getting more than half of the SNP List vote is fantastical and to be clear I doubt very much if they will get anywhere near close to 20%.
The bottom of the range is zero seats.
The Regional List Vote d'Hondt system of PR used as part of Scotland's Alternative Member System has an effective threshold of about 5.5% of the vote to get a seat. The List is regional, so it's possible to do well in one or two regions, badly in one or two regions and still pick up 1-2 seat with an overall national average of lower than that. On the other hand, depending on the actual election outcome you could get about 6% evenly across the nation and still not win any List Seats.
So an okay performance of between 4%-6% could see the Alba Party win zero seats. The Lib Dems got 5.2% of the vote and 5 seats. 4 in the Constituencies and 1 in the North East Region - they'd have picked up few more Regional Seats had they not won the Constituency Seats they did. The Scottish Greens on 6.6% of the Regional list won 6 seats, concentrated in the Central Belt.
Anything above 6% nationally and I think they start to be assured of seats. There are 8 electoral regions in Scotland. Central Scotland, Glasgow, Highlands and Islands, Lothian, Mid Scotland and Fife, North East Scotland, South Scotland and West Scotland.
So a vote tally of slightly above 6% probably wins seats in half of those Regions, for 4 seats. 8%-9% is probably a seat in each region for 8 seats in total.
At 10%-15% a lot would depend on how clustered the vote is and how other parties do but you could assume 2 seats in each Region for 16 seats in total.
My political intuition tells me that 2% is a more likely vote tally than 20%. New parties struggle to gain traction. Alex Salmond is an unpopular figure in Scotland and the one thing that would shift that, the uncovering of a conspiracy by the SNP leadership to have him convicted on entirely false charges, doesn't appear to be happening. But I could believe 5%. I could even see 10% with a following wind and a bit of media exposure (in what will be an air and cyber war heavy campaign because of COVD.) Looks like my concern that the Scottish Green's vote includes a significant number of SNP voters tactically and that they might shift to the Alba Party is not happening. Salmond is particularly unpopular with SGP voters.
So, you pays your money, you takes your choice. Anywhere between 0 and 20 seats.
no subject
How do you reckon Gorgeous George will run?
no subject
no subject
no subject
no subject
Compared to the Alba Party niche which is a centre-left indy party but INDY NOW! The niche is that the SNP are perceived by some as dragging their feet on independence.
I don't know if Sheridan is actually planning on standing for the Alba Party. The ISP, which was his vehicle has stood down.
I suspect that if this election becomes about gender recognition issues then that probably helps the Alba Party and it may end up forcing the Alba Party in to demanding the rollback of some recent legislation as the price of a confidence and supply arrangement. However, it's unlikely to be an election about anything other than the next indy ref.
no subject
Alba seems to be peeling off the rightist rump of the SNP -- what's left of the old "tartan tories". The SGP in contrast is broadly to the left of the SNP, so it seems to me to be quite unlikely that SGP list tactical voters will defect to Alba.
no subject
And I agree about the Greens, the more the Alba Party exhibits itself, the less likely it is that SGP voters will peel off.