I think this was what Jeffries was driving at. That the assumption that the referendum is a) lost b) not even close is based on the premise that Don’t Knows will break evenly or even preferentially for No on the basis of better the devil you know. He thinks this is not actually a done deal.
What I think he’s saying is that, actually, the Don’t Knows are largely the middle 1/3rd and are trying to make up their mind between two mutually exclusive positions, Indepedence and Not Indepedence both of which contain elements they like, more autonomy and remaining in the Union. Whichever campaign is best able to convince those middle 1/3rd voters they will get an outcome that looks most like what they want will be able to convert the Don’t Knows into Yeses or Noes.
The closer the polls get, he suggests, the more likely we are to see the No Campaign talks about devolution.
So every time a High Tory says “No extra powers for Scotland.” or Nicola Sturgen says “We’ll keep the pound and the queen and the EU and NATO.” a floating voter becomes a Yes. Likewise, everytime Johann Lamont talks about additional devolved powers or the Lib Dems talk about a federal UK a Don’t Know becomes a No.
no subject
What I think he’s saying is that, actually, the Don’t Knows are largely the middle 1/3rd and are trying to make up their mind between two mutually exclusive positions, Indepedence and Not Indepedence both of which contain elements they like, more autonomy and remaining in the Union. Whichever campaign is best able to convince those middle 1/3rd voters they will get an outcome that looks most like what they want will be able to convert the Don’t Knows into Yeses or Noes.
The closer the polls get, he suggests, the more likely we are to see the No Campaign talks about devolution.
So every time a High Tory says “No extra powers for Scotland.” or Nicola Sturgen says “We’ll keep the pound and the queen and the EU and NATO.” a floating voter becomes a Yes. Likewise, everytime Johann Lamont talks about additional devolved powers or the Lib Dems talk about a federal UK a Don’t Know becomes a No.