And that strikes me as at least as good an educated guess as anyone else’s.

But the implications of your view being correct are not fun. Mainly because I think we have already spent all the extra money your lower growth assumption brings in and maybe a bit more besides.


As a tangent I worry that holders of capital couldn’t find some assets more productive to invest their surplus cash in than a series of bubbles. I think that’s a bit of a worry for the labour forces of the West mainly, but also the East.